Moving Public Opinion On Global Warming Metro Sustainability Summit - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Moving Public Opinion On Global Warming Metro Sustainability Summit June 9, 2010 Wendy M. James, The Better World Group

Start with the basics: What do you call it? • Infamous Frank Luntz memo to Bush Administration urging use of “climate change” to confuse issue and downplay urgency • Recent focus groups in California show greater understanding and acceptance for “climate change” vs. “global warming”

How much do people care? • Most important problem facing the country? Just 1 ‐ 3% say environment • Most serious problem facing the world in the future if we do nothing to address it? Environment/climate change ranks #1 (25% vs. terrorism at 10%) • Critics claim voters don’t care because environment never ranks high as “most important” but researchers claim it’s how you ask • Just changing question from most important in the country to most important in the world changes results dramatically – 1% to 7% • Changing the question to most important in the future doubles it again to 14%

How accurate are poll results? • Recent headlines claim falling support/belief in global warming • Researchers point out that most major polls are conducted around Earth Day in the spring or climate summit (e.g., Copenhagen) in December – when people aren’t focused on heat • Industry groups have waged intensive media campaign to discredit climate science

California has long history of support for environmental policy • PPIC polling shows drop in support, but continued strong support for AB32: – 2009 – 66% – 2008 – 73% – 2007 – 78% • Global warming seen as a threat to the economy and quality of life by ¾ of public: – 47% very serious – 28% somewhat serious • Most agree effects of global warming occurring already – California – 61% – U.S. – 53%

Party affiliation one of biggest determining factors • Belief that global warming is happening by political affiliation: – Democrat – 76% – Independent – 61% – Republican – 36% • 34% of Republicans say global warming will never happen – up 10% from 2008

The more specific the remedies, the stronger the support across party lines • Cap & trade – 57% Dem support, 55% Rep oppose (49 v 40 overall) • Carbon tax – 73% Dem support, 60% Rep oppose (56 v 35 overall) ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ • Reduce emissions from new cars – 90% Dem, 81% Ind, 55% Rep support • Require utilities to use increasing amounts of renewables – 91% Dem, 85% Ind, 71% Rep support • Require buildings to be more energy efficient – 86% Dem, 77% Ind, 63% Rep support • Require local governments to change land use & transportation planning so people can drive less – 87% Dem, 79% Ind, 62% Rep support.

Media impacting attitudes • Media’s need to present opposing views, regardless of merit, has led to public confusion – Fair and balanced? • Erosion of traditional media impacts public’s base of knowledge – Less exposure unless a predisposed interest • Focus groups showed surprisingly high level of knowledge – More cite Web homepage as news source than TV or newspaper – Allows people to dive deeper on stories of interest

Choice of messengers important • California voters growing increasingly skeptical • More likely to believe a total stranger they can “relate to” • Scientists often seen as tainted – “depends who’s paying them” • Health groups score very high – American Lung Association • Consumer organizations/pubs generally high • Oil companies, politicians fight for last place

Generational shifts • Recycling • Tobacco • Seat belts X • Getting off petroleum

State breakout: US dependency on oil -5 94 Total -4 95 Arizona -5 95 California -3 95 Montana -3 94 New Mexico -4 93 Oregon -3 96 Utah -10 89 Washington Concerned Not concerned 11

State breakout: Importance of ending US dependence on oil How important is it to you that the country ends its dependence on oil – is it very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all? -8 91 Total -10 89 Arizona -7 92 California -5 93 Montana -8 91 New Mexico -8 89 Oregon -7 92 Utah -10 90 Washington Important Not important 12

State breakout: Lack of a plan to transition away from oil as our main energy source -8 89 Total -8 88 Arizona -8 90 California -9 88 Montana -8 89 New Mexico -9 86 Oregon -8 90 Utah -12 86 Washington Concerned Not concerned 13

State breakout: Likelihood of purchasing an alternative fuel vehicle, hybrid or a vehicle that gets higher gas mileage Thinking about your next vehicle purchase, how likely are you to be shopping for an alternative fuel vehicle, a hybrid vehicle or a vehicle that gets much higher gas mileage? -20 63 Total -18 65 Arizona -19 65 California -16 58 Montana -15 57 New Mexico -24 59 Oregon -16 65 Utah -23 61 Washington Likely Not likely 14

State breakout: Even if gas prices come down in the short term, we need to act now to avoid a future crisis I’m going to read you a list of statements. After I read each one, please tell me whether you generally agree or disagree. -4 95 Total -2 97 Arizona -4 95 California -4 95 Montana -5 95 New Mexico -5 92 Oregon -5 95 Utah -5 94 Washington Agree Disagree 15

State breakout: Gas prices are only going to go up in the long run unless we take action now to make our cars and trucks run on less gas or alternative fuels or electricity I’m going to read you a list of statements. After I read each one, please tell me whether you generally agree or disagree. -14 83 Total -16 82 Arizona -14 83 California -18 80 Montana -13 83 New Mexico -15 81 Oregon -17 80 Utah -16 81 Washington Agree Disagree 16