Moving Beyond Poverty: Data for Discussion Thurston County United Way November 17, 2015 Marc Baldwin, Ph.D. Marc.Baldwin@OFM.WA.Gov Forecasting and Research Office of Financial Management 1
Percent in Poverty for Thurston County, 1970-2014 Sources: Census of Population and Housing 1970, 1980, 1990 and 20000 and American Community Survey 2005-2014, U.S. Census Bureau 18.0% Person Family Household 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1969 1979 1989 1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2
Percent of Students Eligible for Free/Reduced Price Lunches 2004-05 to 2014-15: Washington State and Thurston County Source: Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction: Washington State Report Card 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Thurston County Washington State 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 3
Historically Slow Recovery 4
Percent of Labor Force 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 U.S., Washington State, and Olympia Unemployment Rates Jan-04 Jan-05 Washington January 2000 - September 2015 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 U.S. Jan-09 Jan-10 Olympia Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 5
Low Unemployment Rates Hasn’t Automatically Resulted in Wage Gains Unemployment U.S. Median Weekly Wages $360 12 Wages moved slightly as Wages climb and level off unemployment fell. $350 10 with sustained lower unemployment. $340 8 $330 6 $320 4 Wages declining despite tighter labor markets. $310 2 $300 0 1979Q1 1980Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 Median Weekly Wages Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6
Increasing job openings are not reducing unemployment as much as in the past, suggesting problems in the labor market. 4 Beveridge Curve Shifts Outward in Jobless Recovery Since 2009 June 2015 3.5 Job Openings as % of Labor Force 3 2.5 January 2005 2 "The Beveridge curve slopes down 1.5 because higher levels of job openings July 2009 represent a more robust labor market, which corresponds to lower unemployment rates. 1 The curve shifts out when an increase in job openings fails to reduce unemployment 0.5 January 2005 to June 2009 July 2009 to June 2015 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Unemployment (% of Labor Force) Source: The Changing Nature of Recessions, American Institute for Economic Research, Research Study, 2014, page 12 7
Sources of inequality include: * • More earners per household • Marital status • Age of householder * • Work hours • Educational attainment Policies that address these * might be a good place to start. * * Source: Mark Perry, American Enterprise Institute, November 2014 8
Thurston County Residents At a Glance Census QuickFacts Table Olympia-Tumwater, WA Metro Area Thurston County Washington Population, 2014 estimate 265,851 7,061,530 Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 5.4% 5.0% Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2014 15.2% 14.1% White alone, percent, 2014 (a) 82.9% 80.7% Black or African American alone, percent, 2014 (a) 3.4% 4.1% American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2014 (a) 1.7% 1.9% Asian alone, percent, 2014 (a) 5.7% 8.2% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2014 (a) 1.0% 0.7% Two or More Races, percent, 2014 5.2% 4.5% Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 (b) 8.4% 12.2% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 76.3% 70.4% Living in same house 1 year & over, percent, 2009-2013 81.6% 82.7% Foreign born persons, percent, 2009-2013 7.6% 13.2% Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5+, 2009-2013 10.8% 18.5% High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 92.9% 90.0% Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 32.3% 31.9% Veterans, 2009-2013 29,091 582,265 Mean travel time to work (minutes), workers age 16+, 2009-2013 24.7 25.7 Per capita money income in past 12 months (2013 dollars), 2009-2013 $29,744 $30,742 Median household income, 2009-2013 $62,229 $59,478 Persons below poverty level, percent, 2009-2013 11.7% 13.4% 9
Change in Nonfarm Jobs in Olympia MSA From Previous Cycle Peak (2008) to Current Local Government State Government Federal Government Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Mining, Logging, and Construction -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 10
Industry Employment (Olympia Metropolitan Statistical Area, August 2015) Employment Average Wage State Government 24,200 $60,209 Education and Health Services 15,800 $42,621 Retail Trade 12,200 $28,134 Local Government 11,700 $45,907 Professional and Business Services 10,000 $42,945 Leisure and Hospitality 9,800 $17,009 Mining, Logging, and Construction 4,700 $48,038 Financial Activities 4,300 $52,496 Other Services 4,300 $33,855 Manufacturing 3,900 $48,471 Wholesale Trade 3,100 $87,897 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 2,400 $40,152 Information 900 $58,450 Federal Government 900 $74,234 11
Many “prime age” workers are leaving the labor force all together in the recovery. Labor Force Participation Rate of 25-54 Year Olds 95 78 Percent of Resident Civilian Population Percent of Resident Civilian Population 94 77 93 92 76 91 75 90 89 74 88 73 87 86 72 85 84 71 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Males Females Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 12
Median Household Income in the United States, Washington State and Thurston County, 2005-2014 Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 United States Washington State Thurston County 13
Difference in Real Median Earnings in Washington between 2013 and 2007, Dollars by Age and Educational Attainment, 2013 Dollars $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 -$2,000 -$4,000 -$6,000 Age -$8,000 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Less Than High School High School Diploma/GED Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Advanced Degree Source: American Community Survey 2011-13, US Census Bureau 14
Median Gross Rent (Rent and Utilities) for Washington State and Thurston County, 2005-2014 Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Washington Thurston County 15
Most Thurston County residents are too young to work or are over Social Security retirement age Thurston County Precent of Child Aged Total Population of Dependency Dependency Dependency Total Working Age Ratio (0-17) Ratio( 65+) Ratio Dependents (18-64) Year 1980 49:100 16:100 65:100 48,957 60.6% 1990 44:100 19:100 63:100 62,364 61.3% 2000 40:100 18:100 58:100 76,156 63.3% 2010 36:100 20:100 56:100 90,886 64.0% 2020 36:100 29:100 64:100 112,979 60.8% 2030 36:100 35:100 71:100 135,674 58.4% 2040 35:100 36:100 71:100 148,677 58.5% Source: 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 Censuses and OFM's 2012 GMA Projections 16
Average Persons Per Household 2005-2014, Washington State and Thurston County Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Washington-Own Thurston County-Own Washington-Rent Thurston County-Rent 17
Self-Sufficiency Standard for Thurston County Adult + 2 Adults + 3 Adults Monthly Costs Adult preschooler 2 Adults preschooler (no children) 838 1026 838 1026 1026 Housing 0 776 0 776 0 Child Care 251 380 494 616 691 Food 255 263 494 502 494 Transportation 116 413 459 469 516 Health Care 146 286 229 339 273 Miscellaneous 274 568 358 601 426 Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 Earned Income Tax Credit (-) 0 -53 0 -50 0 Child Care Tax Credit (-) 0 -83 0 -83 0 Child Tax Credit (-) Self-Sufficiency Wage $10.68 $20.32 $8.16 $11.92 $9.73 Hourly per adult per adult per 2 adults Monthly $1,879 $3,577 $2,872 $4,195 $3,426 Annual $22,553 $42,919 $34,461 $50,340 $41,109 Source: Diana Pearce, The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Washington State 2014 (Seattle-King County Workforce Development Council). “Self - sufficiency” is meeting basic needs in six categories. Depending on family size and geography, it is much higher than the poverty level but lower than median family income under Housing and Urban Development programs. 18
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