Making Army Systems More Reliable for our Soldiers and More Affordable for the Department David E. Mortin, Ph.D. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE. AMSAA david.e.mortin.civ@mail.mil 410.278.6248
AMSAA Mission: AMSAA conducts analyses across the Materiel Lifecycle to inform critical decisions for current and future Soldier needs Strategic Analyses Enterprise, Lifecycle, Milestone Analysis of Alternatives, Cross-Functional, Fleet, System-Levels, etc. Management & Business Logistics Materiel Performance & Operations Analysis Engineering Analysis Effectiveness Analysis • Corporate Decision Risk Analysis • Supply Chain Analysis • Systems Performance Analysis • System Support M&S and Data Dev. • Business Case/Economic Analysis • Dev/Cert. of Systems Perf Data • Field Data Collection & Analysis • Cost-Benefits Analysis • Dev of System Perf Meth/M&S • Army Acquisition Lessons Learned • Reliability & Physics of Failure Analysis • Technology & Risk Assessment • Center for Reliability Growth • Exec. Agent, Army RAM Standards • Indep. Evaluator – Chem Demil • Logistics Methodology Dev/M&S • Materiel Lessons Learned Analysis • Exec. Agent, DoD’s JTCG -ME AMSAA Analysis Informs Decisions Impacting Both Current Operations and Army Transformation 16-Jun-13 2
Operations and Support Costs Largest Fraction of Life Cycle Cost Ground Combat Systems Rotary Wing Aircraft "We have a tendency to look at 4% 4% what it takes to get a program out 28% 31% the door. We don't think too much O&S Costs about what the life cycle [cost] is. 65% 68% It's 'Can I build it?‘ I would like us all to be mindful of what it costs to operate whatever we are Surface Ships Fighter Aircraft building for whatever its life is going to be because I have to 1% 5% pay that bill every single year.“ 39% 29% 60% 66% - CNO, ADM Michael G. Mullen in an interview with "Government Executive" magazine May 15, 2006 From “Improving System Reliability Through Better Systems Engineering,” RDTE Procurement O&S Dr. Charles E. McQueary, Director, OT&E NDIA SE Conference, October 2007 16-Jun-13 3
Reliability Challenges Microsoft's Xbox 360 Debuted in 2005 Within three years of release, as many as 1 in 6 consoles suffered from a failure, (some report as high as 1 in 3) $1.9B loss Interviews suggested that the failures were a result of: – Poor system design Heat sink bracket – Parts supply failure – Material reliability • Results • Microsoft extended warranty – Manufacturing issues • Class Action Lawsuit – Inadequate testing • Redesign 16-Jun-13 4
Reliability Even More Challenging in the Army Environment 16-Jun-13 5
Army Branches Infantry Which Army Branches Adjutant General's Corps are the two Largest? Corps of Engineers Finance Corps Quartermaster Corps Ordnance Corps - keeps the Air Defense Artillery Army's combat forces Field Artillery moving and shooting Armo Ordnance Corps Quartermaster Corps - the Signal Corps Chemical Corps Sustainer of the Army Military Police Corps Transportation Corps Military Intelligence System Reliability is a Key Aviation Component Driving our Special Forces Army Force Structure 16-Jun-13 6
Reliability Growth & Its Impact on Support Costs Idealized Curve Customer Test Initial DT LUT LUT Excursion IOT 300 Reliability (Time to Failure) $869 M $894 M $1,103 M 250 215 CAP4 220 $1,701 M 200 175 CAP3 $2,457 M 150 114 CAP2 100 CAP1 80 50 The most critical step is here 0 CAP – Corrective Action Period Test Time (Hours) Reliability Impact in the 100s of Millions or Billions of Dollars 16-Jun-13 7
Physics of Failure Analysis TESTING FINITE ELEMENT MODELING • Basis of all PoF Efforts Stress / Strain Shock/Vib/Thermal/Modal • Work with testers to get the most out of each test • Ensure analysis-driven data collection RESULTS Computational Multi-Body • Time to Failure (Fatigue) Fluid Dynamics Dynamics • Failure Root Cause • Evaluation of Alternatives RESULTS ID Cost-Effective Solutions DYNAMIC MODELING 16-Jun-13 8
Efficient Acquisition Through Early Design Influence Roof Crush Analysis Robot Electronics Analysis Firing Impact Analysis Vibration, shock, thermal and Plated Used engineering analyses to support Through Hole fatigue analyses Circuit cards simulated to experience changing requirements and contract conducted to improve designs early transportation vibration, daily thermal values cycling, solar radiation, and shock Drop Analyses Electronics Vehicle Analytical Support Analyzed circuit cards under harsh environments, identified failure Using test data and engineering Model used to determine realistic mechanisms, and assisted PM & techniques to help determine when shock loads and board deformations contractors in making early design changes vehicles are over-tested during drop events to improve reliability and save costs Detector Vehicle Electronics Across various systems, ROIs of 10:1 to 30:1 are common Conducted analysis on vehicle electronics Design-for-Reliability process and identified areas of thermal concern for bridges Supplier- Gov’t gaps subsequent action 16-Jun-13 9
Instrumentation Locations Locations based solely on previous experience may not be optimal and CAN PRODUCE MISLEADING RESULTS Bad Good M&S can determine locations to optimize data collected Modeling & Simulation Actual Test Results Results 16-Jun-13 16-Jun-13 10 10 Proper instrumentation reduces costly re-tests
Armored Vehicle Analysis Scope Component Rating Tie Rod G • Developmental Testing planned to N-S Drag Link G E-W Drag Link G compare old to new chassis Suspension Strut G Trailing Arm G • First 12K miles of testing yielded Steering Bearing Flange G Steering Knuckle G positive results Control Arm G Wheel Bearing Flange G • Determine if remaining 15K miles of E-W Driveshaft G testing is necessary N-S Driveshaft G Differential Stubshaft G Differential G Steering Damper G Accomplishments Impact • • Proper instrumentation saved on Used modeling and simulation and an engineering instrumented test costly re-tests • • Results provided additional Finite Element and Fatigue models developed confidence to eliminate miles • Overstress safety factor comparison between component generations • Multiple load cases and potential failure locations considered Cost avoidance to test program of $400,000 16-Jun-13 11
Vehicle Modification Analysis Scope X X • Cracks found in frame of cargo bed during developmental testing X = location of box beam supports • Planned corrective action to add box- Averaged PSD Comparison Configuration Comparison Using Fatigue Damage Ratio Frequency Domain Fatigue Damage Ratio APU Bottom With Beams Relative to Without Beams 0.1 APU Top Vertical 10 Without Beams (rms = 0.31) beam supports to cargo bed m = 3 With Beams (rms = 0.32) 0.01 m = 5 m = 8 PSD Magnitude (g 2 /Hz) • Determined if support beams will affect 0.001 Fatigue Damage Ratio 1 0.0001 subsystems’ reliability by changing 0.00001 0.1 Input: Munson Test Courses Notes: Delta F: 0.98 Hz system dynamic response m = exponent related to slope of S-N curve (log-log) 0.000001 Block Size: 2048 Data indicate little fatigue difference between Windowing: Hann the two configurations. 0.0000001 0.01 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 Frequency (Hz) Frequency (Hz) Accomplishments Impact • • Analysis determined that addition of AMSAA provided information on system dynamic response changes support beams does not change due to support beams vibration environment • • Corrective action would have no Processed acceleration test data at various locations for both negative impact to reliability configurations • Re-test of new configuration was not ‒ Time Domain required, resulting in significant savings Frequency Domain ‒ Cost avoidance to test program of $435,000 16-Jun-13 12
Armor Analysis Scope Impact of Mortar Firing • Armor fastens to outside of vehicle via brackets Hull Impact • Need to determine effect of mortar Force Estimated Rounds to Failure firings on brackets by identifying Initial Impulse ~2.9M failure modes and estimate rounds 2x Initial Impulse ~120K fired to failure Accomplishments Impact • Finite element and fatigue models • Reduced Testing developed • Verified Product good to go • Acquired firing pressure data to make impulse estimations • Used dynamic modeling to determine loads from road courses • Bolt and weld margin of safety comparison using peakloads Reduced Test Costs By $160,000 16-Jun-13 13
Support to Army Depots Scope CRACK • Provide reliability improvement experience and assistance to Depots • Perform root cause analysis and suggest design modifications on recurring failures identified at Depots Accomplishments Impact • Increased automation • Identified sources of failure and • More efficient processes devised mitigation strategies • Lower costs • Wheels, shelters, missiles, and more Returns on Investment of 25:1 and higher 16-Jun-13 14
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