ASF 2018 - Market Report MONGOLIA MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS SRO Ms. Ulziibayar Bold Chair, Board of Directors, MASD
Contents Economic Sector Performance of Mongolia Financial Sector Performance of Mongolia 2 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Economic performance of Mongolia Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Mongolia: Growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) from 2014 to 2018 GDP growth rate 9,0% 7,9% 8,0% 7,0% 6,1% 5,9% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,4% 2,0% 1,2% 1,0% 0,0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP growth rate Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Total budget /in billions MNT/ 10.000 7.711,0 7.394,0 8.000 7.098,0 5.229,0 5.150,0 5.207,0 6.000 4.997,0 4.204,0 3.894,0 3.832,0 4.000 2.000 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (2.000) (1.025) (1.165) (1.948) (2.503) (4.000) (3.500) (6.000) Total equilibrated balance Total equilibrated revenues and subsidies Total expenditures and net debt Source: Ministry of Finance Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Foreign trade /in millions USD/ 12.000,0 10.000,0 8.000,0 6.000,0 4.000,0 2.000,0 0,0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 Export 5.774,6 4.669,3 4.916,3 6.200,7 5.282,8 Import 5.236,6 3.797,5 3.358,1 4.335,5 4.351,1 Foreign trade balance 537,9 871,8 1.558,2 1.865,2 931,7 Foreign trade turnover 11.011,2 8.466,8 8.274,5 10.536,1 9.633,8 Export Import Foreign trade balance Foreign trade turnover Source: National Statistical Office 6 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Exchange rate /in MNT/ MNT/USD Exchange rate 3000 2552,13 2489,53 2427,13 2500 1995,5 1884,4 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 MNT/USD Exchange rate Source: Bank of Mongolia MNT/CNY Exchange rate 371,58 370,83 357,96 400 304,6 307,3 300 200 100 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 MNT/CNY Exchange rate Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Inflation /in percent/ 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 -2 Monthly Year-to-date Yearly Source: Bank of Mongolia Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Monetary policy rate (in percent)) 16 14 13 14 12 11 12 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Monetary policy rate (in percent)) Source: Bank of Mongolia Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Total deposits (in trillion MNT) Total outstanding loans (in 9,4 10 trillions MNT) 7,4 8 20 15,9 5,7 6 5,2 5,2 13,4 15 12,6 12,5 11,9 4 10 2 5 0 0 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 Total deposits (in trillion MNT) Total outstanding loans (in trillions MNT) Source: Bank of Mongolia 10 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Foreign Direct Investment (in millions USD) 2.000 1.494 1.000 342 94 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 (1.000) (2.000) (3.000) (4.000) (4.156) (5.000) Foreign Direct Investment (in millions USD) Source: Bank of Mongolia Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Financial sector performance of Mongolia Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Mongolian Stock Exchange Listed companies: 303 /as of Q2 2018/, • Listed companies that have filed their financials with MSE: All • Listed companies that have announced 2017 dividends: 26 • Average amount of trading in one day, 2017: MNT 2.36 bln , • Number of “Compliant” brokers: 52 13 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Big wave in 2018 5 IPOs and 1 SPO of Q3 2018, 2 more expecting Largest number of IPOs in the history of capital market Top20 Index, market cap hit the record high First dual listing First RTO First ever largest M&A Tax reduction will be approved soon 14 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MONGOLIAN ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS Capital market capitalization (billions MNT) Market capitalization 3.000,0 2.484,9 2.440,2 2.500,0 2.000,0 1.474,2 1.427,1 1.393,6 1.500,0 1.000,0 500,0 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 Market capitalization Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers Source: MSE SRO
Mongolian Stock Exchange TOP-20 Index 2012-2018 TOP-20 Index 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 01/01/2012 01/01/2013 01/01/2014 01/01/2015 01/01/2016 01/01/2017 01/01/2018 Source: MSE 16 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
MSE 2018 Performance /billions MNT/ MSE 2018 Performance 120 105,4 100 80 60 40 30,3 30,4 20 0 Traded on MSE Government securities - Capital raised - YTD secondary MSE 2018 Performance Source: Financial Regulatory Commission of Mongolia 17 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Equity trading /billions MNT/ 200 144,7 109,1 97,6 100 87,5 76,4 75.1 49,0 30,5 24,2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-III 18 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Breakdown / billions MNT / Trade structure, 2017 (in percent) Trade structure, 2018 III (in percent) 0.6% 1% 9% 28,6% 70,8% 90% Corporate bonds Government bonds Shares trade Corporate bonds Government bonds Shares trade • Shares trade – MNT 78.1 billion, 9.0% • Shares trade – MNT 75.1 billion, 70.8% • Government securities – 89.74% • Government securities-30.3 billion 28.6% • Primary – MNT 630.2 billion • Primary – none • Secondary – MNT 142.3 billion • Secondary – MNT 30.3 billion Source: MSE 19 Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
Thank you for your attention! Mongolian Association of Securities Dealers SRO
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