Moderate Income Households and Housing in San Francisco Ted Egan, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco Moderate Income Households and Housing in San Francisco Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist Controller’s Office of Economic Analysis September 19, 2011

Income Distribution in San Francisco and the Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco Bay Area Distribution of Population by Household Incom San Francisco and Remainder of Bay Area, -9 30% 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% Bay Area except S SF 20% 19% 16% 16% 15% 15% 11% 10% 10% 5% 0% Extremely/Very Low <50 Low (50 -80%) Moderate (80 -120%) Middle (120 -150%) Upper (150%)+ Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005- 9 5 year sample / IPUMS 2

Adult Labor Force Status by HH Income Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco Category, SF and Bay Area Labor Force Participation Rates Adults by Household Income Categor -9 90% 82% Not SF 80% 80% SF 76% 76% 73% 72% 69% 70% 66% 60% 49% 50% 45% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Extremely/Very Lo Low Moderate Middle Upper Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005- 9 5 year sample / IPUMS 3

Place of Work for Employed Adults Residing in Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco San Francisco, by Household Income Category Percent of Employed SF Residents who work in S By Household Income Category, 2005 -9 82% 78% 76% 73% 69% Extremely/Very Lo Low Moderate Middle Upper Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005- 9 5 year sample / IPUMS 4

Typical Occupations at Various AMI Levels in Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco San Francisco Typical Occupations 50% AMI Hotel Desk Clerk 60% AMI Medical Assistant 70% AMI Billing and Posting Clerks 80% AMI Cement Masons 90% AMI Bus & Truck Mechanics 100% AMI Legal Secretaries 110% AMI Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists 120% AMI Public Relations Specialists 140% AMI Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists 150% AMI Civil Engineers 160% AMI Dental Hygienists 170% AMI Software Developers, Systems Software 180% AMI Financial Analysts 190% AMI Pediatricians, General 200% AMI Dentists, General 5

Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis Housing Production and RHNA Needs City and County of San Francisco Annual San Francisco Housing Production -2008, and Annual Needs per RHNA 2007 -14 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 All Other Units Moderate 2,000 Low Very Low 1,500 1,000 500 0 Production RHNA Needs 6

Percentage of Rental Vacancies Affordable for Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco Different Income Groups in San Francisco % of 3BR Newly -Vacant SF Rental Units Affordable to a -Person Household, Varying Income Levels, 2006 -2011 150% 150% of AMI 120% of AMI 80% of AMI 125% 50% of AMI 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 A unit is considered “affordable” for an income level if its asking rent is less than 33% of the monthly household income. Source for average San Francisco asking rent for 3-bedroom units: Craigslist. 7

Affordability of Market-Rate Housing for 100% Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco AMI Households in San Francisco Maximum Affordable House, 4 -Person Household at 100% as a Percentage of Average San Francisco 3BR P -2011 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 “Maximum Affordable House” assumes 10% down, 90% mortgage financing at average mortgage rate for that year, with 33% of household income used for mortgage payments. 8 Source for average San Francisco housing price for 3-bedroom units: Zillow.

Affordability of Market-Rate Housing for 100% Office of the Controller – Office of Economic Analysis City and County of San Francisco AMI Households Around the Bay Area Maximum Affordable House, 4 -Person Household at 100% AMI (S as % of Average 3BR Housing Prices in Selected Bay Area Co -2011 350% Solano 300% Alameda Santa Clara Marin 250% San Francisco 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 “Maximum Affordable House” assumes 10% down, 90% mortgage financing at average mortgage rate for that year, with 33% of household income used for mortgage payments. 9 Source for housing prices for 3-bedroom units: Zillow.