Modeling the response of industry to environmental constraint Alain - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modeling the response of industry to environmental constraint Alain HITA – Ahcène DJEMAA (Ph D student) EDF R&D/ Eco-efficiency and industrial processes Dept.

Industry energy consuming How the carbon constraint Industry Transports influence the choice of energy by 32% 28 % the re-optimisation of industrial processes ? Agriculture 2% Tertiary Fossil fuels, electricity ?? 12% Résidential Water Energy 27% Raw Products Energy consumption in Europe (2005) Materials Source: IEA CO 2 Emissions for France: Waste Industry : 21 % of France total CO 2 emissions CO 2 2

TIMES modeling interest Energy  analysis of a set of criteria covering energy, environment and economy Technological choices  Optimization, under constraints, Environment Economy of a technological representation of a reference energy system on a time horizon  bottom-up model advantages(TIMES) The model chooses the best economical production technologies (energy efficiency, investment cost,..)  Energy mix ?  Associated CO2 emissions ?  technological changes ?  Investments chronology ? ... 3

Energy intensive industrial sectors Industry Others Energy intensive Steel Pulp & Paper Glass Others construction Cement Refinery materials Chemicals Industrial perimeter related to the CO 2 emission trading scheme Real Model Others Cons. Mat. Glass cement France CO 2 emissions (Mt) Paper Steel 2005 4

TIMES (steel industry) Reference Energetical System Scenarios Scenarios prices Energy and CO2 DEMAND Industrial Energy CO 2 consumption emissions 5

Times : The Reference Energy System (RES)  The model manages the decommissioning of production units Raw Materials Technological Options End Emissions of life Demand Energy/ ……. T2 T1 T3 Ti Existing Technology Investment I New Capacity technology C Cost Prod. L … Need of data Industrial stock (plants age, production capacity, process) New Processes (energy efficiency, production cost, investment) Sources : CEREN,ULCOS, EDF R&D, Centre Technique Papier, BREF (IPPC) , etc… 6

Steel production routes  six routes (two classics, two news and two futures) with several technologies for each one Natural gaz, Electricity Coal hydrogen Electricity Coal Direct Reduction Route Smelting Reduction A-Electrolysis P-Electrolysis Electrical Arc Blast Furnace Route Furnace Route Route Ore Coal Lime Iron Ore Iron Ore Iron Ore Iron Ore Sinter/Pellet Coke oven Pellet Direct Smelting Alkaline Pyro Scrap Blast Furnace Reduction Reduction Electrolysis electrolysis DRI Electric Pig Iron ELYSIS Furnace SR Oxygen OH Oxygen Furnace Converter Steel PLYSIS Continuous Casting Hot Rolling Cold Rolling Finition Products 7

Factor 4 case study (France) Scenarios : Energy and CO 2 Factor 4 for industry between 2000 and 2050 CO 2 PRICE 60 CO 2 (Mt) 50 Mitigation 40 Factor 4 30 20 10 External energy prices hypothesis (POLES Model) Energy Prices Reference scenario Energy price (Reference scenario) Industrial Growth 60 50 Electricity 40 Oil 30 Natural Gas 20 Coal 10 0 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 8

Factor 4 case study (France) Scenarios : industrial demand Source: EDF R&D (made before 2008 financial crisis) Glass fiber Recycled paper Special glass Historical Growth scenario Flat glass Hollow glass Steel Paper Chemical paper Pulp Cement Gypsum plaster Mecanical paper Pulp 9

F4 results : Influence on energies (total energy consumption and energy mix) Electrcity is replacing gas Twh 300 Gas is replacing F4 F4 250 coal Reference No change before 2030 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Note : around 2030-35, we supposed a strong growth of french steel industry, supported by a strong world demand ( may be too optimistic ?) Reference F4 10

F4 results : re-optimisation of industrial processes (steel industry example) F4 (France) 45 Steel demand 40 Steel production 35 30 25 Mt 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Improved Blast furnace ( Direct Coal Injection) Blast furnace Direct reduction (natural gas) (HYL III ) Electrolysis Electric arc furnace Contiarc arc furnace (preheated scrap) 11

F4 results : Factor 4 imposed to the whole industry ou distributed by sector Factor 4 distributed by industrial sector CO2 (Mt) CO 2 Constraint New technologies can Glass reach the objective of Paper factor 4 (mainly with CCS Other construction and electricity uses) materials Cement Steel Factor 4 for the whole industry CO2 (Mt) CO 2 effort is more Glass easy for some Paper sectors Other construction materials Cement Steel 12

F4 results : Marginal cost of CO 2 emissions mitigation Factor 4 2 cost r 2 cost r ( ( ( € € € /t) /t) /t) Marginal CO Marginal CO Marginal CO cost r é é é duction by duction by duction by sector sector sector 2 distributed by 500 500 500 industrial Cement Cement Paper sector 400 400 400 Other Other construction construction 300 300 300 materials materials Glass Steel Steel 200 200 200 Steel Paper Paper Other construction materials 100 100 100 Glass Glass Cement 0 0 0 2025 2025 2025 2030 2030 2030 2035 2035 2035 2040 2040 2040 2045 2045 2045 2050 2050 2050 Marginal cost of CO 2 lower for cement industry 13

F4 results : Marginal cost of CO 2 emissions mitigation for the whole industry Factor 4 for the whole industry - 79% Reference F 4 14

Conclusions Interest of TIMES model for industry : • Full description of the technological choices of the reference energy system of industry. It allows the calculation of the resulting energy mix and the carbon cost for each industrial subsector. • Limitations : • Importance of database • Energy Price scenarios and demand scenarios are exogenous. Consistency has to be ensured. No return effects on price nor demand F4 case study : 1st exercise with TIMES-industry. Primarily intented to validate the consistency of the tool. Some restrictions (only industry, no electricity production sector, France is insulated, CCS is accepted). However it shows that there are still technological solutions (electrical processes are revisited) to reduce CO2 emissions in industry. 15

 Thank you for your attention 16

Datas on plants (age, production capacity)  Steel industry (France) 17

Data on technical options (energy efficiency performances) For steel production: 9 standard processes 17 Energy efficient processes 19 breakthrough processes 18

Datas on production cost  Example : Midrex (direct reduction by natural gaz via H2,CO) 19

F4 results : re-optimisation of industrial processes (Cement and paper examples) Profil de production papier (Mt)/ SCBND F4 F4 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 IPPADRPRO10 8.00 IPPPDPRO05 IPPRPRO00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Efficient drying system (drying with vapor compression system) (Electricity (+15 à +20%), steam (-70 à -90%)) Source : ICARUS-4, 20

Résultats : Réoptimisation du parc de production par secteurs (sidérurgie,ciment) Tendanciel Facteur 4 La sidérurgie s’oriente vers des techniques électriques Facteur 4 Facteur 4 21 Le ciment s’oriente vers le CCS Sans CCS, le système ne peut satisfaire la demande sans importer du clinker