Andrea Rocci University of Lugano (Switzerland) Modals as lexical indicators of argumentation in predictions IADA Workshop Word Meaning in Argumentative Dialogue Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Milan 2008, 15-17 May
Three themes for a workshop � Lexical semantics � Argumentation � Dialogue
The context of the research � Modality � Logically, as the truth-evaluation of states of affairs with respect to sets of possible worlds (or alternatives ) of various kinds. � Cognitively, as the basic human ability of thinking of states of affairs other than what is the case � In terms of linguistic semantics, as lexically encoded by modal verbs in English and in Italian. � Argumentation � Seen in its pragmatic and inferential aspects. � Observed in a particular interaction field and discourse genre: financial communication mediated by newspapers � Prediction � As speech-act level “pragmatic predicate” imposing presuppositions on sender, addressee, propositional content and discourse co(n)-text. � As socially recognized key-move in different activity types within the interaction field of financial communication.
What is a prediction? � According to Searle & Vanderveken (1985): � To predict is to assert with the propositional content condition that the propositional content is future with respect to the time of the utterance and the preparatory condition that the speaker has evidence in support of the proposition. Evidence is a special kind of reason. � S&V also introduce the complementary illocution of retrodiction : � To retrodict is simply to assert a past proposition with respect to the time of utterance, on the basis of present evidence. � Merlini (1983): � Pragma-linguistic analysis of prediction as a key speech act in economic discourse. � Predictions are conditional � BUT Mc Closkey (1985) : “conditional predictions are cheap” � What kind of commitment on the antecedent? � Predictions are modalized
Future, uncertainty and unsettledness w 1 w 2 w 3 t 0 w 4 � There will be a naval battle tomorrow � (Cf. Aristotelis De Interpretatione IX)
Future, uncertainty and w 1 unsettledness w 1 w 1 w 2 w 1 w 2 w 1 w 2 w 3 w 2 w 3 t 0 w 2 w 3 t 0 w 4 w 3 t 0 w 4 w 3 t 0 w 4 t 0 w 4 w 4 � There will be a naval battle tomorrow � (Cf. Aristotelis De Interpretatione IX) � For all what I know, certainly there will be a naval battle tomorrow
Modality and predictions in financial news: a first reconnaissance � Firm's fortunes may rise as commodity prices fall (Headline) � Major airlines around the globe continue to see strong passenger demand, so profit could climb if they are able to raise prices while their own costs drop as fuel prices fall. (From the body text) � Wall Street Journal Europe (WSJE) on September 14, 2006 � A reduction of that percentage to 30% would likely lead Standard & Poor's to raise the company's corporate credit rating to "stable" from "negative," according to primary credit analyst Mary Ellen Olson. � (WSJE, February 13, 2007)
He believes that investors may well believe … Christoph Weil, an economist with Such concerns have helped limit the � � Commerzbank in Frankfurt, contends dollar's losses against the euro, that the financial-market turmoil makes despite the Fed's recent moves— a serious euro-zone slowdown "all the which once might have produced a more likely ," and contends that the dramatic fall in the dollar. The euro is ECB will begin trimming its key "still essentially where we were at the interest rate in the second quarter. He start of December," says Simon expects that policy makers could Derrick, the London-based chief begin publicly shifting their concern currency strategist for the Bank of New from inflation to growth in March, when York Mellon. "That I find absolutely new forecasts from the central bank's remarkable." staff are released. Mr. Derrick believes investors may be focused more on the risks to growth than on those posed by inflation. They " may well believe that the ECB is not ( Rate-policy shift could sap euro , WSJ � being reactive enough and the euro is Europe February 1, 2008) too highly valued," he says
Finance obsessed by modals…
Forward looking statements in financial metadiscourse This press release contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements […] Words such as "believes," "anticipates," "expects," "intends" and "plans" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. […] By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes described or implied in forward- looking statements will not be achieved. […] From the Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking information which accompanies a Credit Suisse press release. Lies, damned lies and forward looking statements (Title of a blog on finance on the Internet. Sadly, now closed.)
What this paper does � Discuss Toulmin’s hypothesis on modals as argumentative indicators � Present an alternative semantic approach to the argumentative relevance of the models � Apply the theory to the differences between deve and dovrebbe in what concerns the marking of predictive standpoints, looking at a corpus of economic-financial news
The place of modality in an argument � Modal qualifier � Provides “explicit reference to the degree of force which our data confer to our claim in virtue of our warrant” (Toulmin 1958: 101
Modals as argumentative indicators in Toulmin � “These terms— ‘possible’, ‘necessary’ and the like— are best understood, I shall argue, by examining the functions they have when we come to set out our arguments” (Toulmin 1958: 18). Modal Markers Phases of the Argument Possibility: Putting forward an hypothesis as worth may / possible/ [ can ?] considering; Impossibility: Ruling out an hypothesis; cannot Necessity: Having ruled out other hypotheses, presenting one particular conclusion as unequivocally the necessarily/ must one to accept.
Must as an indicator of conclusion in different fields of argument � Under the circumstances, there is only one decision open to us; the child must be returned to the custody of its parent. � Considering the dimensions of the sun, moon and earth and their relative positions at the time concerned, we see that the moon must be completely obscured at the moment. � According to Toulmin, the role played in the argument characterizes the specific, field invariant, force of the modal. On the other hand the logical type both of the conclusion of the premises varies according to the field of argument .
Field-invariant force and field- dependent criteria � Your physique being what it is, you can’t lift that weight singlehanded – to attempt to do so would be vain � The seating capacity of the Town Hall being what it is, you can’t get ten thousand people into it –to attempt to do so would be vain. � The nomenclature of sexes and relationships being what it is, you can’t have a male sister – event to talk about one would be unintelligible. you can’t smoke in this � The by-laws being as they are, compartment , Sir – to do so would be a contravention of them � ‘P being what it is, you must rule out anything involving Q: to do otherwise would be R and would invite S’
The problem in Toulmin’s account. � Toulmin’s direct mapping between the semantics of the modals and argumentative operations does nor work. � Modal criteria do not always map on types of arguments for a conclusion and � Modal force does not always correspond to the force with which the standpoint is advanced or to a phase or type of speech-act in an argumentative discussion.
Same criteria, but different arguments � (a) Jonh can lift 100 kg siglehanded. � (b) Jonh can lift 100 kg single-handed. He has an exceptionally powerful physique. (from cause to effect) � (c) Jonh can lift 100 kg single-handed. I’ve seen him doing so with my own eyes. (from testimony and induction) � (d) Jonh can lift 100 kg single-handed. The trainer told me so. (from expert opinion) � In all the examples the modal indicates what is possible to accomplish with respect to John’s muscles, and physical build in general. � Criterion: “John’s physique being what it is”
Modal force is not a type of argumentative speech act � For Toulmin, possibility corresponds to putting forward an hypothesis as worth considering; � But in the above arguments the arguer rather presents conclusive evidence to assert the general compatibility of the action with the agent’s body, rather than presenting an uncertain hypothesis on this action taking place on any particular occasion.
The theory of relative modality � Necessity modals indicate that the proposition is necessarily entailed by (that is logically follows from) a set of propositions, called the conversational background (B) of the modal � Must/ Necessarily (B, ϕ ) ⇔ � ( B → ϕ ) � A proposition is a possibility relative to a given conversational background B, if and only if the proposition is logically compatible with B – that is if {B ∪ ϕ } is a consistent set of propositions. May/ Can/ Possibly (B, ϕ ) ⇔ ¬ � ( B → ¬ϕ ) ⇔ ◊ (B ∧ ϕ ) �
Recommend
More recommend
