Mobilizing international solidarity, accelerating action and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mobilizing international solidarity, accelerating action and embarking on new pathways to realize the 2030 Agenda and the SAMOA Pathway: Small Island Developing States Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Five transmission channels of COVID-19 crisis will affect the regional economy A fall in Disruption A drop in trade with commodity of global key trading partners prices value chains Less demand for Decline in tourism services remittances Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2 nd June 2020.

COVID-19 Impact on Tourism Visitor arrivals will fall by between 57% and 75% in 2020, leading to losses of tourism expenditure between US$22B and US$28B Direct tourism impact on GDP growth, 2020 Visitor expenditure losses (Percentage) (Per cent of exports of goods and services 1 ) Impact of COVID-19 90 On Caribbean Tourism 0 80 Sector 70 -5 60 50 -10 40 -15 30 20 -20 10 0 -25 DMA BHS LCA ATG VCT AIA ABW GRD BRB KNA JAM BLZ DOM HTI CUB CYM TTO SUR GUY ABW VGB VIR BHS DMA LCA AIA ATG BLZ BRB JAM KNA VCT CYM GRD BMU HTI GLP CUB PRI DOM TTO GUY SUR Base scenario Optimistic scenario Pesimistic scenario Base scenario Optimistic scenario Pesimistic scenario SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Climate Change Vulnerability  During 1990 - 2019, there were over 400 disasters in the Caribbean, 90.4% from hydro-climatic phenomena  In 2019 Hurricane Dorian caused US$3.4b in the Bahamas; 1% of GDP.  2020 is forecast to be highly active with an estimated 16 named storms anticipated. Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2 nd June 2020. SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020 This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

High public debt and low growth Total Public Debt, 2019 GDP growth and public debt (Per cent of GDP) 90 8.0 140 80 6.0 Public debt (per cent of GDP) 120 70 4.0 Growth rate (percentage) 60 100 2.0 50 80 0.0 40 60 -2.0 30 40 -4.0 20 20 -5.5 -6.0 10 0 0 -8.0 BRB BLZ JAM VCT ATG SUR BHS DMA TTO LCA GRD KNA AIA GUY MSR 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Debt ratio Growth rate External Domestic Total public debt 2018 Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2 nd June 2020. SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

High debt service limits fiscal space for COVID response Total debt service, 2009-2018 average Total debt service (Per cent of government revenue) (Per cent of government revenue) 120 Jamaica 102.7 100 Barbados Antigua and Barbuda 42.2 80 74.9 Saint Lucia 32.2 Bahamas 60 Grenada Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 26.4 27.5 40 Suriname Anguilla 20 Saint Kitts and Nevis Belize 0 Trinidad and Tobago 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dominica Guyana Montserrat Range Caribbean average 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Notes: 1. This chart illustrates the wide range of debt burdens that Caribbean SIDS face. 2. The high end of the shaded area is maximum debt service ratio, and the low end is the minimum, which remains at or just above zero. 3. Bahamas data is unavailable for 2017 and 2018 and Barbados data is unavailable after 2015.. Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2 nd June 2020. SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Concessional financial support is an imperative for the Caribbean The Caribbean (13 countries): net official development assistance received, 1960 – 2018 (Percentages of gross national income) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 The Caribbean Heavily indebted poor countries Low income countries Source: World Bank database. a Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2 nd June 2020. SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Five recommendations for financial support and increase fiscal space for Caribbean SIDS 1. ECLAC debt relief initiative for resilience 2. Debt and service stand still and access to concessional funding , eligibility criteria of IFIs 3. Stage contingency bonds : hurricane clause 4. Green and blue bonds 5. Liquidity support Special Drawing Rights (SDR) Issuance. Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2 nd June 2020. SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Warning signs just 10 years from Agenda 2030 and SAMOA Pathway Poverty and Women’s Food security Unemployment Strengthening empowerment inequality and access to ICT particularly for health and platforms youth sanitation SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Thank you