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Milk Market Situation Brussels, 25 Aug 2016 EU Productions EU - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Milk Market Situation Brussels, 25 Aug 2016 EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jun 2016 compared to Jan-Jun 2015) +10,4% +13,3% +7,8% +3,3% +1,1% +2,4% +0,7% -0,9% -15,0% !!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT

  1. Milk Market Situation Brussels, 25 Aug 2016

  2. EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jun 2016 compared to Jan-Jun 2015) +10,4% +13,3% +7,8% +3,3% +1,1% +2,4% +0,7% -0,9% -15,0% !!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!! 25 Aug 2016

  3. +1,1 -0,9 +2,2 +3,5 +4,7 -28.0% to -21.0% -1,0 -21.0% to -14.0% -14.0% to -7.0% -7.0% to +0.0% +10,3 +0.0% to +7.0% -1,6 +5,1 +7.0% to +14.0% +12,6 +3,7 +14.0% to +21.0% +21.0% to +28.0% +5,0 n/a +16,3 +1,3 -3,0 +1,6 +3,3 +6,8 0 +6,3 -2,6 +2,8 +7,3 +2,3 -3,7 +2,3 +2,5 +25,2 Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1 25 Aug 2016

  4. EU - Cows' milk collected 14000 Jan-Jun 2016/15 : +03% 2016 13000 2015 1000 Tonnes 12000 2014 11000 2013 Jan-Jun 2016/15 : + 3,3% 10000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Last update : Jan-Jun Source : Estat - Newcronos Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 25 Aug 2016

  5. EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to July 2016*) EUR/100 kg * : estimated price in running month 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26,2 26 25,5 24 Weighted EU Average (real fat content) 22 EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices) * : provisional figures 20 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Source : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 Source : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  6. E U M I L K P R I C E S ( Jun 2016 vs Jun 2015 ) Source: Member States (Reg. 479/2010) 60 55,0 55 Milk Price 2015 50 45,0 Milk Price 2016 45 37,4 36,8 40 in EUR/100 kg 35 30,6 29,3 28,7 28,2 28,0 28,0 27,4 30 25,8 26,2 25,4 25,0 25,0 24,6 23,5 23,2 23,2 23,2 23,1 22,9 22,0 21,6 25 21,0 20,2 17,8 16,9 20 15 10 5 0 CY MT GR FI IT AT FR HR SE ES PT DK EU GB LU NL BG IE DE SK SI PL BE CZ RO HU EE LV LT Estimates for DK, IE, ES, SE NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein 25 Aug 2016 content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

  7. Weekly EU SMP Prices Latest price : 178 EUR/100kg 450 Evolution compared to same period last year : +5% 400 EUR/100 kg 350 300 250 200 150 Jun Sep Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov 2013 2014 2015 2016 IP 2009 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  8. EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 14.08.2016) 185 183 182 Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2 181 180 180 178 175 173 I.P. : 169.8 170 kg 168 in EUR/100 165 160 155 150 DE CZ BE NL EU Avg. PL IE 25 Aug 2016

  9. Weekly EU BUTTER Prices Latest price : 329 EUR/100kg 450 Evolution compared to same period last year : +15% 400 350 EUR/100 kg 300 250 200 150 Jun Jul Sep Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Aug Oct Nov 2013 2014 2015 2016 IP 2009 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  10. EU BUTTER Prices (up to 14.08.2016) 450 Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2 400 400 364 357 350 348 350 329 324 321 313 313 312 kg 306 EUR/100 300 280 250 I.P. = 221.75 200 150 HR SK DE NL BE EU EE LV CZ PL ES GB IE Avg. 25 Aug 2016

  11. EU Quotations of Butter and SMP (EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production) 440 Butter Intervention buying in price 420 SMP Intervention buying in price 400 BUTTER prices 380 SMP prices 360 kg . 340 329 320 in EUR/100 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 178 160 140 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Source: MS ’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  12. EU Dairy Quotations (EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production) 440 420 BUTTER 400 SMP 380 WMP 360 CHEDDAR 340 in EUR/100 kg 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Source: MS ’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  13. Weekly EU WMP Prices Latest price : 229 EUR/100kg 450 Evolution compared to same period last year : +6% 400 350 EUR/100 kg 300 250 200 150 Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Dec Feb Mar May Nov 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  14. Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices Weekly EU EDAM Prices Latest price : 283 EUR/100kg Latest price : 267 EUR/100kg 500 450 450 400 400 350 EUR/100 kg EUR/100 kg 350 300 300 250 250 200 Evolution compared to same period last year : +9% Evolution compared to same period last year : -7% 200 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2.013 2.014 2.015 2.016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  15. Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices Latest price : 76 EUR/100kg 120 Evolution compared to same period last year : +23% 110 100 EUR/100 kg 90 80 70 60 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 25 Aug 2016

  16. Private Storage Aid Scheme (2014-2016) - BUTTER 150.000 125.000 100.000 75.000 Quantity in tonnes 50.000 25.000 0 -25.000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2014) Quantity offered (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) 25 Aug 2016

  17. Private Storage Aid Scheme (2014-2016) - S.M.P. 55.000 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 Quantity in tonnes 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 -5.000 -10.000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2014) Quantity offered - max 210 days (2015) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015) Quantity offered - max 210 days (2016) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) 25 Aug 2016

  18. Private Storage Aid Scheme (2016) - CHEESE 60.000 50.000 40.000 Quantity in tonnes 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 -10.000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) 25 Aug 2016

  19. Public SMP Intervention scheme (2015-2016) Buying-in quantity at fixed price 325.000 Cumulate quantity up to 14.08.2016 (buying-in at fixed price) : 253 893 T 300.000 275.000 250.000 225.000 200.000 175.000 Quantity in tonnes 150.000 125.000 100.000 75.000 50.000 25.000 0 -25.000 Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) 25 Aug 2016

  20. US Dollar USD/EUR 1.12707 25 Aug 2016 source: www.xe.com

  21. EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP 6.000 Avg Oceania SMP quotation 5.500 Avg EU SMP internal Price 5.000 Avg US SMP quotation 4.500 Prices in USD/tonne 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.925 1.916 1.843 1.500 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 1.000 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 25 Aug 2016

  22. EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP 6.000 Avg Oceania WMP quotation 5.500 Avg EU WMP internal Price Avg US WMP quotation 5.000 4.500 Prices in USD/tonne 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.954 2.504 2.500 2.238 2.000 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 1.500 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 25 Aug 2016

  23. EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter 7.000 Avg Oceania Butter quotation 6.500 Avg EU Butter internal Price Avg US Butter quotation 6.000 5.500 5.000 Prices in USD/tonne 4.890 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.430 3.000 2.900 2.500 2.000 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 1.500 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Apr 16 Jul 16 25 Aug 2016

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