Mihkel Meidla Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Tartu University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mihkel Meidla Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Tartu University of Estonia Estonia 1 1

The purpose purpose of of the the study study The Review of of general general traffic traffic safety safety situation situation in in ► Review ► Estonia Estonia Risk assessment assessment of of car makes - car makes - based based on on ► Risk ► Estonian national national safety safety statistics statistics of of Estonian registered ( (injurious injurious or or fatal fatal) ) accidents accidents registered Elaboration of of most most dangerous dangerous car car makes makes ► Elaboration ► 2

Current situation situation in in traffic traffic safety safety Current Compared to to other other European European countries countries ► Compared ► the situation situation is is unsatisfactory unsatisfactory! ! the Estonian National National Traffic Traffic Safety Safety ► Estonian ► Programme Programme � Vision Vision 100: 100: Less Less than than 100 100 fatalities fatalities at 2015 at 2015 � (168 in in 2005) 2005) (168 3

Road fatalities fatalities per per 1 1 million million population population Road Russian Federation 2004 Poland 1990 Czech Republic Greece Hungary 126 Estonia 278 Portugal Spain Slovak Republic Belgium Austria Italy Ireland France Denmark Finland Germany United Kingdom Norway Sweden Netherlands 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Road accidents in accidents in Estonia 1991-2005 Estonia 1991-2005 Road 600 3600 500 3000 400 2400 300 1800 200 1200 Fatalities 100 600 Injuries 0 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 5

Motorization development development in in Estonia Estonia Motorization (cars cars per per 1000 1000 population population) ) ( 400 350 Car ownership (cars per 1000 of population) 300 250 200 150 Non used cars elimination from the register (based on technical insepction and insurance data) 100 50 0 1 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6

Evaluating traffic traffic safety safety of of different different car car Evaluating makes makes DATA SOURCES: DATA SOURCES: ► Road Road accident accident data data from from the the accident accident database database of of ► Estonian Road Road Administration Administration ( (injury injury and and fatal fatal Estonian accidents); ); accidents ► Motor Motor vehicle vehicle kilometrage kilometrage data data from from Estonian Estonian ► Motor Vehicle Vehicle Registration Registration Centre Centre (ARK); (ARK); Motor 7

Structure of of the the accident accident database database Structure Sources: Road Administration EMVRC 8

Representation of car makes in Estonian register 9

2005 Percentage 2003 Change 2005-2003 60 853 Lada (VAZ) 58 593 12% -2 260 49 749 Ford 57 415 12% 7 666 42 359 Opel 48 426 10% 6 067 30 170 Volkswagen 43 850 9% 13 680 21 865 Audi 31 592 7% 9 727 15 636 BMW 20 838 4% 5 202 17 918 Nissan 20 685 4% 2 767 21 815 Moskvitch 19 324 4% -2 491 15 050 Toyota 18 965 4% 3 915 15 231 Mazda 18 692 4% 3 461 12 534 Mercedes 15 764 3% 3 230 11 039 Honda 13 566 3% 2 527 8 974 Peugeot 12 138 3% 3 164 9 893 Mitsubishi 11 147 2% 1 254 9 754 Volvo 10 976 2% 1 222 6 736 Fiat 6810 1% 74 10 6 981 ZAZ 6554 1% -427

Average kilometrage kilometrage of of car car makes makes Average 2640 GAZ (VOLGA) 3709 MOSKVITCH 3724 LADA 8346 FORD 12987 OPEL 15239 SKODA 15763 AUDI 15957 VOLKSWAGEN 16517 BMW 16549 SUZUKI 16675 HONDA 16751 RENAULT 17357 NISSAN 17655 VOLVO 17725 MERCEDES 18339 TOYOTA 18413 PEUGEOT 19016 SEAT 20275 CHRYSLER 21027 CITROEN 11 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Annual exposure exposure of of car car makes makes Annual (millions millions km) km) ( GAZ (VOLGA) MOSKVITCH SKODA SEAT SUZUKI CHRYSLER CITROEN RENAULT LADA VOLVO HONDA PEUGEOT TOYOTA NISSAN MERCEDES BMW FORD OPEL AUDI VOLKSWAGEN 12 0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0

I ndicators: : I ndicators ► General General exposure exposure of of cars cars, , shared shared between between car car makes makes ► ► Accident Accident risk risk ratio ratio: No : No of of accidents/driven accidents/driven km km ► ► Accident Accident severity severity risk: No risk: No of of fatalities/injuries fatalities/injuries ► ► Fatality Fatality risk risk ratio ratio: No : No of of fatalities/driven fatalities/driven km km ► 13

SAAB MITSUBISHI VW AUDI NISSAN VOLVO CHRYSLE R Casualty accidents accidents Casualty SE AT per per driven driven 1 1 million million km. km. BMW MB MAZDA id HYUNDAI g r a TOYOTA m o HONDA t u A OP E L RE NAULT MOSKVITS KIA MUUD SUZUKI SKODA FIAT P E UGE OT FORD CITROE N LADA 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Liiklusõnnetused/1 000 000 km

MITSUBISHI Ratio of of fatalities fatalities and and Ratio Pass oh graafik siia Pass oh graafik siia HONDA injuries by by car car makes makes injuries RE NAULT VW AUDI FORD FIAT MB P E UGE OT id g LADA r a m to NISSAN u A OP E L BMW MAZDA VOLVO SE AT TOYOTA CHRYSLE R SUZUKI MOSKVITS 0,000 0,050 0,100 0,150 0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 15 Hukkunuid vigastatute kohta

MITSUBISHI HONDA Pass reaal graafik siia Pass reaal graafik siia AUDI Fatalities per per 1 1 million million km km Fatalities VW shared by by car car makes makes shared RE NAULT NISSAN MB VOLVO id BMW g r a OP E L m to MAZDA u A P E UGE OT FORD TOYOTA CHRYSLE R LADA FIAT SE AT SUZUKI MOSKVITS 0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2,0 16 Hukkunuid 1 miljoni km kohta

17 Moskvich / I Ž Ž Moskvich / I

The results results and and conclusion conclusion The ► Car Car makes makes with with very very high high risk- risk- Moskvich Moskvich and Suzuki and Suzuki ► ► High High risk: risk: Chrysler Chrysler and and Seat Seat ► ► Low Low risk: risk: Audi, Audi, Honda Honda, Mitsubishi ja Volkswagen , Mitsubishi ja Volkswagen ► ► NCAP test NCAP test can’t can’t be be compared compared with with this this research research ► ► Traffic Traffic safety safety situation situation Estonia Estonia is is getting getting better better but but it it needs needs ► extra resources resources extra 18

Thank You You! ! Thank 19