Migration in History Summer School Universitt Siegen & University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Migration in History Summer School Universität Siegen & University of Piraeus September 03, 2015 Department of International & European Studies University of Piraeus

Three game changing trends in the Eastern Mediterranean:  increased risks to  deepening  accelerating . My thesis is that factors, such as these , are likely to constitute security threats in the rest of the 21st century. In fact, when they concur, they may even whip up a . • 2 out of 32 •

The Nobel Committee recognized environmental connections to security by awarding Kenyan activist the for her work linking sustainable development and human rights. An emphasis is now given to  focuses attention on the who will be  empowered by technology and the interlinked complex social media reality of the 21st century  drawn out of its political isolation and into the mainstream of environmental security policy  (usually neglected under state-centered definitions of security). • 3 out of 32 •

Essentially, the Nobel Committee expanded its view of security to include conflicts that are caused by  natural resource exploitation  unfavorable demographics  limited public participation and corruption  maldevelopment and inequity. Established institutions such as the (ECSP) of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, have been examining this link since  when civil unrest in Liberia, Rwanda, Somalia, and Haiti offered graphic illustrations of state failure. • 4 out of 32 •

It is true that the (MENA) and appear to be in an ideal demographic match (that will deepen over time):  MENA has a large supply of young, active (skilled and unskilled) workers  Europe has a shortage of youthful (skilled and unskilled) labor that is necessary to get out of the crisis and sustain its economic competitiveness. from MENA has hit prime time because the MENA population is  exceptionally young and mobile  more (if not better) educated  less constrained by family responsibilities than preceding generations and political developments have caused a refugee wave. • 5 out of 32 •

The faces a mixture of contradicting conditions at home  most MENA countries have a large enough working-age population to support the nonworking, older population  unlike Europe  young workers (particularly the well-educated) face poor employment conditions at home  in part due to failed economic policies  (To : does it RING A BELL?)  population density may be growing to untenable levels in several MENA countries  pressure on freshwater reserves will exacerbate the problem  unresolved conflicts have cause unprecedented migration within and from the region. More on the refugee crisis later. • 6 out of 32 •

Migrants are likely to do less well than expected in their destination countries.  Considering the global economic downturn, in the North they are likely to face the cold and feel the divide that has been characterized as a democracy problem. The (FPR) is identified as  energy consumption fuel price  Fuel poverty ratio income If , the household is considered to be fuel poor. Fuel poverty is a inflicted on low income and vulnerable households (containing children, elderly and ill people) as they:  pay the most (compared to their income)  emit the least  benefit the least (from policy interventions). • 7 out of 32 •

Although it has been opposed by some IR theorists, attention (and research) has shifted to the relationships among the following destabilizing factors:  the environment  climate change  water pollution and water rights  population  large youth populations (skilled and unskilled)  migration from MENA to the European North  disease  such as HIV/AIDS  economic development  and the global recession  political stability and violent conflict. The critics are right in this:  Environmental security is not all-encompassing enough to provide a new template for IR. • 8 out of 32 •

The hypothesis of a link between the environment and political stability is believable.  e.g. decades of population growth in has contributed to overfarming and deforestation and have tested social cohesion. Some overdid the reporting. ’s influential 1994 piece in The Atlantic Monthly, , contained the hyperbolic claim (motivated by his travels in West Africa) that  the environment would become the national security issue of the 21st century. • 9 out of 32 •

There are quite a few environmental problems in the Eastern Mediterranean:  marine pollution  bilge and ballast (water from ships)  nutrients that cause eutrophication  increased input of fertilizers and pesticides (agricultural runoff)  floating plastic and solid waste  toxic substances: tar, persistent organic chemicals, heavy metals  contaminants transported to the sea through the atmosphere e.g. chromium and mercury  depletion, degradation and salinization of fresh (potable) water  reduced fish yields due to over exploitation  threat to traditional livelihoods  forest ecosystems among the most degraded in the world  this, I believe • 10 out of 32 •

 urbanization of coastal and arable lands  no win scenario: if food imports are reduced, agriculture will be intensified  poorly designed waste sites  leachate apt to pollute groundwater over the next decades  pressure on historical and cultural sites  interplay of religion with environmental protection  the Islamic elite may not place environmental protection programs high on their priority list. I could go on and on, but you get the picture. In reality, I am hopeful that we solve environmental problems almost as fast as we create them. • 11 out of 32 •

The says that there is severe in many countries of the Mediterranean basin. I am unsure as to how much of this to believe. Scaremongering is the way the environmental research industry secures its funding. But it does not hurt (i.e. it is a dominant strategy) to take some precaution  as long as the cost of measures considered is not out of proportion to the risk. • 12 out of 32 •

and the coupled with threaten the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean. Ecological stress is dangerous when exerted over a short amount of time  problems such as the global climate change or the depletion of the ozone layer play out in such slow motion that they can hardly be considered security threats. Too much ecological stress coupled with waves of refugees (people crying "Asylum!") and unfavorable demographic changes constitute a political force majeure that may ripen the conditions for authoritarian governments.  This is catalyzed to a large extent by the worsening of the citizens of pressured countries. • 13 out of 32 •

Depending on the context of a region, ecological stress, demographic shifts and migration flows may even give rise to conflict.  e.g. water disputes between and does not have the same implications with a similar dispute between and . More catastrophic ingredients may be added to the mix in the Eastern Mediterranean basin:  and its relationship to  and its relationship to the Judeo-Christian world  ISIS. Therefore, it may be warranted to expand the concept of national security so that it includes non-military, issues. • 14 out of 32 •

What is to be done?  I will not talk about policies but I shall outline trends. Odd bedfellows will lie together  heads of state  directors of UN agencies and the World Bank  NGOs and nonstate actors  volunteers  army generals and the military  political and security analysts  demographers and social scientists  conservation biologists and environmental engineers  post-doc researchers and field workers. • 15 out of 32 •

Interesting research will be carried out e.g. of the  she has addressed the evolving concept of  examples from the Middle East and Central Asia promote the potential of environmental paths for reaching peace  publication by MIT Press (post Soviet Union water issues): • 16 out of 32 •

and of the at the University of California, Irvine  use environmental security research to develop a broader network of threats and vulnerabilities  they believe that these formulate a new 21st century security agenda. • 17 out of 32 •

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“Fortress Europe”  the European Union’s increasingly closed -door policy towards migrants  attempting to reach Europe from MENA. Mediterranean coasts of , and  they are the EU’s external southern borders  like a moat surrounding a medieval fortress, the Mediterranean Sea acts as a barrier against unwanted intruders. No one puts their children in a boat unless the water is safer than the land. — , Somali-British writer, poet, editor and teacher. • 19 out of 32 •

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Fortress Europe’s  Italy’s Alpine border with its northern neighbors  2nd natural line of defense and border control!  thrust to political significance by its geographic location  one of the most important gateways to the other side of the Inner Wall  1370 m above sea level in the middle of the Alps  the lowest and most important mountain pass connecting Italy, Austria and Germany by road and rail  destination of boat migrants pursuing a better life. • 21 out of 32 •

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