Migration and Development: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe UC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Migration and Development: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe UC Davis Friday, May 6, 2011

 Speculations about the effects of the crisis on the dynamics of Mexican migration  Predicted massive migrant return  Growth rate of the immigrant population flow from Mexico has declined 2

 During the last three decades, there has been increased pressure on the Mexican labor Market. ◦ growing numbers of youngsters ◦ women entering the labor market ◦ displaced workers 3

On average from 1994 to 2009 the Mexican economy grew 2.3 percent. 4

Mexican population 15-64 In 1994 =53.1 million In 2010 =71.5 million (34.7% increase) In 1980 32% of the population in 15-64 In 2000 61% In 2010 64% 5

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Male Female 10 0 2 0 6

 Mexico’s labor legislation has not experienced change since the 1970’s  High labor cost in private and public sector  Regime of informality in Medium and small businesses in order to have flexibility but leaves workers with low levels of job security.  A dual labor market has emerged from this situation generating negative outcomes in terms of: ◦ productivity, ◦ competitiveness ◦ and social security A labor reform promoting flexibility in formal employment is being discussed in Congress . 7

30 25 20 Rates 15 10 5 0 II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Informal Sector Unemployment Source: ENOE (National Occupation and Employment Survey ) 8

20 Millions 18 16 14 12 Permanent Temporary 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social 9

700 600 Thousand persons 500 400 300 New Arrivals Emigration 200 137 107 106 100 93 80 50 31 13 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Passel and D'Cohn, based on CPS 10

12 10 Million persons 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Passel and D'Cohn, 2009 (Based on CPS) 11

1633 Emigrants Return migrants 1111 351 285 2000 2010 Source: CONAPO estimates based on Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). Population and Housing Census (10% samples), 2000 y 2010. 12

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 % 6 4 2 Male Female 0 Below 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and more Source: Lowell and Pederzini,, 2011 13

60 50 Male Female 40 30 20 10 0 Below Primary Middle High Post High B.A. Master's Ph.D. Primary School School Source: Lowell and Pederzini, 2011 14

60 ¡ 50 ¡ 40 ¡ 30 ¡ 20 ¡ 10 ¡ 0 ¡ 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Lowell and Pederzini, 2011 Male Female 15

Informality and emigration flows are in part due to the inability of the Mexican labor Market to accommodate a larger work force. A greater return rate and a decreasing flow of workers to the US impose a major challenge to the Mexican Labor Market . 16