Meeting the Existential Challenges of Energy Security and Climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Meeting the Existential Challenges of Energy Security and Climate Change Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI December, 2016

CO2 Emission and Energy security after Fukushima accident

Current Energy Mix in Japan (Power) 2  The earthquake in 2011 transformed Japan’s power generation composition, replacing nuclear with LNG, oil and coal. 100% 12% 13% 11% 13% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 90% 24% 19% 18% 14% 12% 12% 11% 8% 10% 11% 10% 11% 9% 13% 12% 7% 7% 14% 18% 15% 11% 80% 29% 26% 26% 21% 70% 29% 29% 27% 27% 26% 24% 26% Renewables 24% 25% 26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 60% 22% 23% Oil 22% 22% 39% 43% 46% LNG 22% 23% 23% 50% 42% Coal 14% 14% 15% 15% 17% 18% 21% 25% 26% 25% 22% 25% 25% 40% 25% 25% 12% 13% 24% Nuclear 10% 10% 11% 30% 25% 20% 27% 28% 29% 32% 32% 34% 35% 36% 37% 34% 34% 35% 31% 28% 30% 31% 26% 29% 31% 30% 26% 26% 29% 29% 10% 11% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2 Coal

Stable supply: Self-sufficiency Significantly lower than before the earthquake (19.9% in 2010). Second lowest in 34 OECD countries. Primary Energy Self-Sufficiency Rate of OEDC Countries (2014) ６８２．９％ 1st Norway Natural Gas Hydro-Power Oil 2nd Australia Coal ２９２．０％ Renewable Energy, etc. （ geothermal, solar etc. ） 3rd Canada １６７．９％ ・ ・ Nuclear Power ・ 7th U.S.A. ９０．８％ ・ ・ ・ ※ IEA includes nuclear power in the first primary energy self-sufficiency rate. ・ 14th U.K. ６０．３％ fy2010 fy2011 fy2012 fy2013 fy2014 15th France Energy Self-Sufficiency 19.9 11.2 6.3 6.2 6.0 ５６．５％ Rate (29th) (33th) (33th) (33th) (33th) ・ ・ ・ ・ Nuclear Power 15.0 5.8 0.9 0.5 - 21th Germany ３９．１％ ・ Hydro-Power 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 ・ ・ 26th Spain ３０．６％ Natural Gas 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 ・ ・ Oil 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 ・ 31th Korea １８．３％ ・ Renewable Energy 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 ・ ６．０％ 33th Japan Effective Recovery Use 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 of Wasted Energy 34th Luxembourg ４．０％ Natural Renewable 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 【 Source 】 IEA “Energy Balance of OECD Countries 2016” Energy 3

Environment : Contributions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Change of greenhouse gas emission in Japan FY1990 FY2005 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Greenhouse gas emission 1,408 1,271 1,397 1,305 1,355 1,390 1,364 (million t-CO2) Energy-originated CO2 1,067 1,219 1,139 1,188 1,221 1,235 1,189 emission (million t-CO2) (Compared From electricity * with 2010) 439 +65 486 +112 484 +110 457 +83 275 373 374 (million t-CO2) From non-electricity -30 -14 732 -33 -16 735 792 846 765 749 751 (million t-CO2) *”From electricity” is CO2 emission from general electricity companies. [Ref] Created based on General Energy Statistics, Environment Action Plan (Federation of Electric Power Companies), Calculation Result on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Japan (Ministry of the Environment). 4

Nuclear Energy Policy in the Strategic Energy Plan ＜ Description in the Strategic Energy Plan of Japan ＞ Nuclear power is an important base-load power source as a low carbon and quasi- domestic energy source, contributing to stability of energy supply-demand structure, on the major premise of ensuring of its safety, because of the perspectives; i. superiority in stability of energy supply and efficiency, ii. low and stable operational cost and iii. free from GHG emissions during operation. New e ener nergies es 1.1% 3.2% 7.5% Oil il 10.4% 29.3% LNG NG 46.1% 25.0% Coa oal 31.0% 28.6% Nucl clea ear 9.0% 8.5% Hy Hydro 2010 010fy 2014 014fy 5

Basic principle for drawing the long-term energy supply and demand outlook <Policy target for 3E+S> Energy Safety is the top priority. Self-sufficiency: About 25%, higher than security before the earthquake (about 20%) Safety Economic Electricity cost: To lower from the current level efficiency (9.7 trillion yen in FY2013 to 9.5 trillion yen in FY2030) Greenhouse gas emission reduction target: Environment comparable to the targets of Europe and the US 6

Power demand and power source composition Power demand Power source composition 17% lower than before the implementation of the energy conservation Geothermal (Total generated energy) measures 1.0 to 1.1% Economic growth 1,065 billion kWh Biomass 1.7%/year Energy conservation 3.7 to 4.6% + renewable energy Renewable Wind power 1.7% account for 40%. energy Solar power 22 to 24% 7.0% Nuclear power Hydroelectric 8.8 to 9.2% 20 to 22% Electric Electric power power LNG 966.6 billion 980.8 billion 27% kWh kWh Coal Base load ratio: 26% 56% Petroleum 3% 2013 2030 2030 (Actual result) 7 * Values are approximate.

Environment: Contributions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by major countries] Compared with 1990 Compared with 2005 Compared with 2013 Japan -18.0% (2030) -25.4% (2030) -26.0% (2030) U.S. -14 to 16% (2025) -26 to 28% (2025) -18 to 21% (2025) EU -40% (2030) -35% (2030) -24% (2030) -60% to -65% of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 2030 compared to 2005 China achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 South +81% (2030) -4% (2030) -22% (2030) Korea  The U.S. submitted emission reduction target compared to 2005 while the EU submitted its target compared to 1990.  South Korea submitted an emission reduction target of -37% in 2030 compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. 8

Current efforts of nuclear restarts and further market reform

Nuclear Power Plants in Japan (As of Nov 17, 2015) Nuclear Power Plants in Japan To Toma mari ri As of December 5th, 2016 Kas ashi hiwa waza zaki ki Ka Kari riwa wa ２７ ２５ ６ Ohma Oh ma ３１ ２６ ２３ ２２ ２６ ２０ １９ Shi hika ka Hig igas ashi hido dori ri(T (Tok okyo yo) ２３ １０ Tsu suru ruga ga １０ Hig igas ashi hido dori ri(T (Toh ohok oku) u) ２９ Ona naga gawa wa Miha Mi hama ma ３２ ２１ １４ ４０ Ohi hi Fu Fuku kush shim ima Da a Daii iich chi ３７ ３６ ２４ ２３ Taka Ta kaha hama ma ４２ ４１ ３１ ３１ Fuku Fu kush shim ima a Dai aini ni → (Unit 3) Restarted in Jan. 2016 → (Unit 4) Restarted in Feb. 2016 ３４ ３２ ３１ ２９ → (Unit 3,4) be placed on provisional injunction Tok okai ai ・ To Toka kai i Da Dain ini → (Unit 1,2) Permitted in Apr. 2015 Shi hima mane ne Decided to be permanent ３８ ２７ shutdown (Total 15 Units ） Ge Genk nkai ai Ham amao aoka ka Under NRA Review (Total ３５ ２２ １９ 21 Units ） ２９ ２３ １１ Ika kata ta Send Se ndai ai Restarted (Total 5Units ） Reactor-type * Takahama 3,4 are placed on ３８ ３４ ２１ ３２ ３１ provisional injunction. ABWR → (Unit 1) Restarted in Aug. 2015 → (Unit 3) Restarted in Aug. 2016 → (Unit 2) Restarted in Oct. 2015 BWR Age 10 → (Unit 1) Stop by the periodic inspection in Oct.2016 PWR Not Start Operation

Efforts towards Restarts of NPPs Safety Reviews and Inspections process of NRA Review of basic design Inspection Inspection Review of detailed design before start-up after start-up and concept Assessment of operation management systems, etc. (for approval of operational safety programs) Completion of assessment Reactor start-up and inspections Sendai 1 2014/9/10 2015/3/18 2015/5/27 2015/8/11 2015/9/10 Sendai 2 2014/9/10 2015/5/22 2015/5/27 2015/10/15 2015/11/17 Takahama 3 * 2015/2/12 2015/8/4 2015/10/9 2016/1/29 2016/2/26 Takahama 4 * 2015/2/12 2015/10/9 2015/10/9 2016/2/26 Ikata 3 2015/7/15 2016/3/23 2016/4/19 2016/8/12 2016/9/7 Takahama 1 2016/4/20 2016/6/10 Takahama 2 2016/4/20 2016/6/10 Mihama 3 2016/10/5 2016/10/26 * Takahama 3,4 are placed on provisional injunction in March 2016 Local acceptance process (Sendai 1/2, Takahama 3/4, Ikata 3) * Not a legal requirements Disaster prevention and evacuation plan (Sendai, Takahama, Ikata, Tomari) *Not a legal prerequisites for restart 11 **Based on “the Basic Act on Disaster Control Measures” and “the Act on Special Measures concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness” 11

Roadmap for Electricity Market Reform in Japan  The 3 rd Reform Bill for the electricity market passed the Diet on 17 June 2015.  On 1 September 2015, The Electricity Market Surveillance Committee was established.  The Reform Bills include the provision for timely verifications of the effect of the reforms. 【 1 st Step 】 【 3 rd Step 】 【 2 nd Step 】 Sep. Apr. 2015 Apr. 2020 Apr. 2016 reform 1 st *The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Establishment of Transmission Operators OCCTO* reform 3 rd Establishment of **The Electricity Market Surveillance Committee EMSC** Full Abolishment of reform 2 nd Transitional Period of Regulated Retail Tariff Liberalization of Regulated Retail Retail Market Tariffs Legal Unbundling 12