Market diversification, Renewed focus Big data and intensifying - PDF document

16‐May‐18 A lot has changed in recent years… UCAS presentation New regulator, Uncertainties ? Demographics, Data, insight, tips, resources, news Office for over future falling 18 year old Students of HE funding population to 2020 in England Alan Jones, Professional Development Executive £ Market diversification, Renewed focus Big data and intensifying competition on widening advances in for students – HEPs are participation Impact technology under financial pressure and access of Brexit Changes to qualifications, Changing new T levels Devolution employment market in England, and apprenticeships Lower demand and competition increase offer rates 1

16‐May‐18 Unconditional offer making and learners Unconditional offers have increased this cycle • Unconditional offers have increased again 51.6k unconditional offers made in 2017 to 18 year old English, Welsh, and Northern Irish this year – 5% of offers to 18 year olds applicants – a 40% increase on 2016. • Unconditional offers may affect attainment • 32% of applicants with an UF offer miss This accounts for over 5% of all offers made to 30k of these offers their grades by more than 3 points , this group. were chosen as firm compared to 20% for those with CF . 17.5% of these applicants receive at least one and 8.4k chosen as • Remain unpopular with teachers and unconditional offer . insurance . advisers • Students ‘taking their foot off the pedal’ • Are they prepared for university? • Should they let universities and colleges know if a learner is failing? • UCAS resources to inform decisions Grade profile of those receiving Acceptance rate increased unconditional offers is changing Fall in acceptances not as Applicants with the top grades are large as might have been among the least likely to receive an expected, as providers unconditional offer. accepted a higher In 2014 and 2015, those predicted AAA proportion of applicants. were most likely to receive an unconditional offer. In 2017, the grade The highest acceptance rate profile has shifted downwards to those since 2008. predicted BBB . One in five applicants predicted BBC to ABB received an unconditional offer. 2

16‐May‐18 Increase in UK 18 year old acceptances Mixed acceptance pattern by domicile despite population decrease Falls in UK Acceptance rates increased for all domiciles. acceptances entirely from older age groups with three quarters of decline Increases seen for 18‐year‐olds accounted for by 19 year olds. 18 year old Falls in acceptances for 19+ acceptances increased by 1.1% , UK acceptances: despite a population ‐0.7% England +2.4% Scotland fall of 1.2% , as ‐0.2% Wales demand increased. ‐2.9% Northern Ireland Outcomes differ by provider type Competition for students with lower grades Higher tariff providers saw increased Decreasing acceptances from 2011 to 2016. In 2017 , numbers remained stable . Focus shifted towards widening participation ? Medium tariff providers still growing , Still growing having started their growth a year after higher tariff. Lower tariff saw growth from 2012 to 2015, but decreases in acceptances from Growth has 2016 . Squeezed by medium tariff? slowed 3

16‐May‐18 Clearing was faster last summer Direct to Clearing acceptances up 14% Fewer applicants available to be Increase in Clearing acceptances entirely from DTC route . placed in Clearing ( ‐20k on ARD). 16,950 placed via DTC , an More Clearing acceptances on the increase of 2.1k from last first day . year, indicating an +14% increasing appetite to Increase in Clearing acceptances of apply late in the cycle. 3.1% , resulting in an extra 1.9k placed through this route. ‐0.2% 93% UK domiciled 67% aged 20 or over +3.1% Business and admin studies most popular courses Widening participation is an ongoing challenge Mixed picture for widening participation Application rates by POLAR4 have shown Some improvements using the POLAR3 a small improvement from last year, with measure, but no improvements using a increases in application rates across all multi‐dimensional approach since 2014. Progress quintiles. stalled Improvements in both measures seen for The gap between young UK men and higher tariff providers. women has increased by 1%, with women POLAR3 Q1 saw its largest recorded increase now 36% more likely to apply to HE than in entry rate to high tariff . men this year. Some improvement The MEM (Multiple Equality Measure) In disadvantaged areas, young women are G5:G1 ratio has been falling each year for 66% more likely to apply than men. This is higher tariff since 2010. the widest gap recorded. 4

16‐May‐18 White ethnic group entry rates fall further behind UK 18 year old women remain more likely to enter HE than UK 18 year old men The White ethnic group had 18 year old entry rates and proportional change compared to 2016 the lowest entry rate and the Women are 36% more likely to smallest proportional increase apply and enter HE than men . in entry rates. If men had the same entry rate as This increases the gap between women , there would be an extra the White ethnic group and all 38k acceptances from men. other ethnic groups. UK 18 year old population still falling 15 October deadline The UK 18 year old population doesn’t stop falling until 2020 . UK 18 year old population The population won’t recover to levels seen in 2010 until 2025 . . • Increased demand or shift in applicant behaviour? 20,000 fewer 18 year • 7% increase at the October olds in 2018 deadline. 5

16‐May‐18 January deadline 2018 Demand for nursing continues to decrease Nursing applicants have fallen by 10% Applicants down by 0.9% (‐5k) and (‐4.5k) to 40,605. applications down 1.4% at January deadline. Fall is largely due to mature applicants Declines driven by: – 21 to 24 down by 12% (‐855), 25+ • nursing down by 14% (‐2.3k). • changing demographics This is offset by: • attractiveness of HE to 18 year olds • EU and outside the EU demand increasing Applicant numbers forecast UK applicants forecast to decrease Stable forecasted applicant to remain stable numbers for this cycle dependent on recent trend of increasing Clearing applicants. Decreases in UK applicants offset by small increases in EU applicants, and larger increases from applicants from outside the EU. Increases from 2020 driven by increasing population of UK 18 year olds. 6

16‐May‐18 Mature demand likely to fall EU and outside the EU applicants are UK applicants aged 20 forecast to increase and over forecast to continue declining. 11% fewer applicants forecast for 2022 than 2017. Economy? Debt averse? Clearing an established admissions route Successful applications Forecasts indicate that Clearing will continue as an important admissions route over the coming years. Number of acceptances (DTC) Applicants aware of choice available in Clearing that provides a valuable post‐qualifications admissions route. “ Start early… Take it seriously… Make it the best that it can be” Forecasted to continue to make use of this route in record numbers. 7

16‐May‐18 How it works: general New and useful resources 1 For most students… Adviser classroom resources for research activities www.ucas.com/researching‐options 2017 stats: 533,890 students accepted 381,560 to firm choice New and useful resources 2 New and useful resources 3 Explore jobs and careers Apprenticeships information https://www.ucas.com/apprenticeships‐in‐the‐uk 8

16‐May‐18 New and useful resources 4 New and useful resources 5 Offer rate calculator https://www.ucas.com/advisers/guides‐and‐resources/ucas‐new‐offer‐rate‐calculator Application form printed guide pdf https://www.ucas.com/file/131431/download?token=LLf‐qD0M Goes through the online application form screen by screen, showing all help text etc. Careful: it is 44 pages long! Available in the handouts for students and parents in the Adviser Guides and Resources page and in the pre‐application toolkit. New and useful resources 6 New and useful resources 7 Estranged students hub https://www.ucas.com/estranged‐students Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) https://www.ucas.com/advisers/guides‐and‐resources/guide‐teaching‐excellence‐framework‐tef Student rights https://www.ucas.com/ucas/undergraduate/choosing‐course/know‐your‐rights https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/415732/Undergraduate _students_‐_your_rights_under_consumer_law.pdf Widening participation and the use of contextualised admissions https://www.ucas.com/widening‐participation https://www.ucas.com/file/86786/download?token=zVfQ‐oho 9