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Marine Disaster Risk Assessment and Zoning in the Coastal Areas of China National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, State Oceanic Administration 2014. 02 Chengdu Outline Marine disaster in China 1 Marine disasters risk assessment and

  1. Marine Disaster Risk Assessment and Zoning in the Coastal Areas of China National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, State Oceanic Administration 2014. 02 Chengdu

  2. Outline Marine disaster in China 1 Marine disasters risk assessment and zoning 2 Intent Cooperation 3

  3. 1.Marine disaster in China Sea Ice Bohai Sea Oil spill Yellow Sea East China Sea Storm surge Red tide South China Sea Ocean Wave Tsunami http://www.etcsoa.gov.cn 3 Friday, June 27, 2014

  4. 1.Marine disaster in China • Storm surge disaster 8/30/1939，Lianyungang, More than 13000 people were killed Before 1949 After 1949 9/1/1905，Shanghai, more than 20000 people were killed 8/2/1956, Xiangshan, 8/2/1922, Shantou, more 3403 people were killed than 70000 people were killed 9/2/1937, Hongkong, more 11000 people were killed

  5. 1.Marine disaster in China In 1781, Tsunami hit Taiwan Strait, about 40000~50000 people were killed, more than 20 countrysides were completely destroyed! • Tsunami • Sea Ice In 1969, the whole Bohai Bay were frozen, lasted for 3 months, 58 cargo ships were destroyed , two oil platforms were knocked down! Average ice thickness Bohai big frozen！ was more than 50cm!

  6. 1.Marine disaster in China Death 91.25% 1.71% 4.6% 38.16% 61.84% 1.02% 1.42% Storm Surge, 840 persons Storm Surge, Ocean Wave, ￥ 128.8 billion 1361 persons

  7. 2. Marine disasters risk assessment and zoning County level • storm surge City level • ocean wave • tsunami Provincial • sea ice National • sea-level rise four ‐ level marine disaster risk assessment

  8. 2. Marine disasters risk assessment and zoning Workflow： Dataset Select area, collect multi source data Collecting Model building and verification, hazards Hazards analysis analysis Vulnerability analysis, mitigation ability Risk analysis assessment, comprehensive risk assessment Determine the risk level Based on the Risk zoning assessment results and units Validate the result by spot surveying and Validation investigating Risk Mapping Cartography based on the results

  9. 2. Marine disasters risk assessment and zoning  Storm surge disaster risk zoning  Tsunami disaster risk zoning

  10. 2.1 Storm surge disaster risk zoning Hazards intensity analysis in China：each 10km shore Typical return periods 10年一遇 100年一遇 10a 50a 100a 1000a

  11. 2.1 Storm surge disaster risk zoning Occurrence frequency analysis in China：each 10km shore 重现期/年 Return period Different storm surge disaster(SSD) scale General SSD Large SSD Extremely large SSD Serious SSD

  12. 2.1 Storm surge disaster risk zoning  County-level risk zoning map in coastal areas Hazards level

  13. 2.1 Storm surge disaster risk zoning Storm surge disaster risk zoning in Lianjiang  FVCOM+SWAN  Gird size：50~100M Validation result 40 (m/s) 30 20 10 0 (h) 0 20 40 60 80 100 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Typhoon scale probable maximum Inundated area ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! TC Track ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Vmax (m/s) ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 15 70 0 75 150 300 km m/s

  14. 2.1 Storm surge disaster risk zoning Emergency shelter Inundated emergency shelters：14/145,9.65%

  15. 2.1 Storm surge disaster risk zoning Settlements Inundated settlements：494/1633，30.25% 台风等级风暴潮全溃堤可能最大居民点淹没图

  16. 2.2 Tsunami disaster risk zoning  Hypocentres  Accurate simulation in near shore  Maximum Wave height  County-level Tsunami hazards zoning map Hazards level

  17. 2.2 Tsunami disaster risk zoning Fish farming area in Mabi Town Ke men Town（power plant, coal base, Kemen Port） Xiao ao Town (Densely populated areas)） Probable maximum Inundated area in Lianjiang 连江县海啸淹没与疏散图

  18. 2.2 Tsunami disaster risk zoning Large scale evacuation route map:  Probable maximum inundated areas  Shelters distribution

  19. 3.Intent cooperation ‘3.11’earthquake Tsunami We are facing tsunami disaster…… We are facing tsunami disaster……

  20. 3.Intent cooperation Typhoon Usagi storm surge disaster We are facing storm surge disaster…… We are facing storm surge disaster……

  21. 3.Intent cooperation What shall we do What shall we do  Storm surge disaster risk analysis technical  Storm surge disaster risk analysis technical cooperation cooperation  Tsunami disaster risk assessment in South  Tsunami disaster risk assessment in South China Sea China Sea  ……  ……

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