Managing a big river basin in a climate change context: the São Francisco (Brazil) Session ID 257: Assessing world river basins in a climate change context Alberto Schvartzman (AGB Peixe Vivo), Pedro Bettencourt (Nemus), Marcel Scarton (V&S Ambiental) IAIA17 (Montréal, Canada) 6 april, 2017
São Francisco River Basin - Location
Main features • The basin encompasses areas within 7 states • Current population: over 15 million inhabitants • Drainage area: 639,000 km 2 • Length of the Sao Francisco river: 2,850 km • 4 physiographic units: – High SF(40% of the total area - 63% of the population) – Medium SF(39% of the total area - 11% of the population) – Sub medium SF(17% of the total area - 12% of the population) – Low SF(5% of the total area - 11% of the population)
Socioeconomics Evolution 2005-2013: • Cattle raising is the fastest growing sector • An increase of 42% in agricultural production in the period • An increase of 35% in milk production • The industry is connected to agricultural and extractive production • Iron ore mining is concentrated in the High Sao Francisco basin, gold is mined in the Medium Sao Francisco Basin
Water balance Surface water This figure shows the surface water balance, in the watershed, obtained by the ratio of the water demanded for all STATE BOUNDARIES identified users and the water flow HYDROGRAPHIC BOUNDARIES in the dry season
Water balance Groundwater According to the balance, in most part of the watershed the groundwater balance is comfortable or excellent in terms of availability. Groundwater Balance Very critical Critical Of concern Comfortable Excellent
Environmental Degradation Issues Deforestation of the area to create pasture, agro systems or development areas have resulted in loss of habitats; Desertification areas have emerged; Acute habitat fragmentation, leading to an increase in the number of species under threat - 13% of the flora and 8% of the fauna; Destruction of riparian vegetation not helped by the lack of rain leads to accelerated sedimentation resulting in low flows, navigation and traditional fishing difficulties
Climate change • Present climate trends (since mid 20th century) has impacted water availability: – Air temperature increased by 2ºC in the Consequences of temperature high and low Sao Francisco Basin in the rise: period 1961-2014 • – Evaporation increased Reduction in areas for – livestock Average annual precipitation decreased slightly but there was an increase in • Migration of farmers extreme events of precipitation, thus creating an imbalance – Lower access to water and sanitation services • Climate forecasts suggest a rise in air – hydroelectric power temperature and evapotranspiration by plants may suffer the mid 21st century • Precipitation and flow forecasts are uncertain
The Management Plan 2016-2025 aims at • Being an important instrument of the basin’s water resources Energy production • Assessing the current situation of the basin Navigation Irrigation Multiple use • Ensuring multiple and sustainable use of water and environment in the basin Economic Water activities transfer • Connecting communities, public sector and water users though engagement and participation
Management Plan 2016-2025 Data collection Basin Assessment Public Scenarios and Forecasts Participation Targets, Actions and Budget Approved Action Plan
Scenarios Studied and Forecasts Public Diagnosis Policies Desirable Other Possible Likely Future Future Futures Baseline Trend Other Scenario Occurences Scenario Scenarios (A - more (B - Base) (C) favorable) Predetermined Trends and patterns Uncertain Elements Elements - Structural Instability + Frameworks Source: Adapted from Ribeiro, Correia & Carvalho (1997) and MOPTC (2009)
Trend Scenario • The ongoing dynamics observed in the São Francisco basin points to a expressive increase in water consumption (even in the mid term) • The scenario studied based on the trends in the basin up to 2012 leads to a demand of over 585 m 3 /s in 2025 (72% higher when compared to the estimated figures for 2015) • With this dynamics, if flow control measures are not implemented properly, withdrawals could reach nearly 737 m 3 /s in 2035 (probably unsustainable, given the existing water availability) Withdrawal flow (m 3 /s) Accumulated growth SFB 2015 2025 2035 2015-25 2025-35 2015-35 339.6 585.3 737.2 72.4% 26.0% 117.1% Total Total demand: Trend Scenario
Trend Scenario Total Demand 2025 Scenario • Total demand of 585 m 3 /s in 2025 • 72% rise when compared to 2015 (7.2%/year) • Increase in High SF (39%), Medium SF (52%), Submedium SF (241%) and Low SF (30%)
Water Pact • Commitment between the Union, States and the São Francisco River Basin Committee up to 2018 • Concerns: – Water distribution – Priority uses of water – Management of water reservoirs – Improvement of water management, knowledge, monitoring, control and regeneration
Implementation of the Plan 2016-2025 Axis III Axis II Axis I Governance and Water quantity Water quality social mobilisation and multiple uses and sanitation Axis V Axis IV Axis VI Biodiversity and Water sustainability Use of soil and environmental dam safety in the Semi-arid requalification
Exemple of the main targets 2016-2025 • Target III.1: by 2025 improve awareness of Axis III surface and underground water availability and flows necessary to guarantee protection of the Water quantity ecosystems and multiple uses • Target III.2: by 2025 reduce water deficit and situations of conflict concerning water uses 2 Targets • Target IV.1: by 2025 increase three fold the number of cisterns to supply homes, as well as Axis IV farming for communities with a population of 20.000 inhabitants or less Water sustainability • Target IV.2: by 2025 implement several small in the Semi-arid projects of energy sources alternative to wood 3 Targets • Target IV.3: by 2025 implement mechanisms to deal with the climate change in the Semi-arid region
Implementation of the Plan 2016-2025 - Budget Executive O Plan budget e Strategic (2%) Plan budget 532.5 million Reais (98%) to co 30.8 billion Brazilian Reais (30.800 million Reais)
Implementation of the Plan 2016-2025 - Budget Allocation of Strategic Plan Budget: Water supply (25.0%; 7.7 billion Reais) Sewage and solid waste collection and urban drainage (62.7%; 19.3 billion Reais) Recovery of deteriorated areas, riparian vegetation and water springs (8.6%; 2.6 billion Reais) Other areas (3.7%; 1.2 million Reais) Semi-arid region: inversions 12 to 15 billion Reais
Thank you! Alberto Schvartzman (AGB Peixe Vivo) ditec@agbpeixevivo.org.br Pedro Bettencourt (Nemus) nemus@nemus.pt Marcel Scarton (V&S Ambiental) marcelscarton@vesambiental.com.br Agência Peixe Vivo (Belo Horizonte, MG, agbpeixevivo@agbpeixevivo.org.br agenciapeixevivo.org.br Brazil)
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