Major General Paul Jaques Director General Logistics, Support and Equipment Army Headquarters
Operational Analysis ‘The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision- makers’ ‘The application of scientific method to aid decision making’ The Conduct of Operational Analysis Studies Guidelines by Chief Scientific Adviser 2003 ‘The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision makers’ NATO Code of Best practice for CJTF and Component Commanders ‘The discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions or more simply as “the science of better”’ UK Operational Research Society ‘An interdisciplinary science which assists better decision making through identification and comparison of change options designed to improve problematic situations’ NATO Guide for Judgement-based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making 2011
Operational Analysis The discipline of applying analytical methods to help make better decisions
“I divide my officers into four groups. There are clever, diligent, stupid and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. Some are clever and diligent – their place is the General Staff. The next lot are stupid and lazy – they make up 90% of every army and are suited to routine duties. Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and composure necessary for difficult decisions. One must be aware of anyone who is stupid and diligent – he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will cause only mischief.” General Baron Kurt von Hammerstein-Equort Chief of German Army Command, 1930-33
Complex v Complicated
Complex v Complicated Warrior CSP HUSKY UOR
Context Political Regulation A specific threat ? Do you know the Data quality requirement? Cost understanding
Define: • The question • Measurement of Effectiveness • The scenario • Comparators • Assumptions
A400M
C-17 A400M C-130J
Strategic Lines of Communication RUSSIA MOSCOW RIGA ULYANOSK RAF BRIZE NORTON MARCHWOOD KAZAKSTAN UZBEKISTAN TURKEY TURKMENISTAN CHINA HAIRATAN ADANA KABUL IRAN AFGHANISTAN AKROTIRI IRAQ KANDAHAR BASTION LIBYA EGYPT PAKISTAN SAUDI ARABIA INDIA MINHAD / JEBEL ALI KARACHI MUSANAH OMAN YEMEN
SDSR C-17 A400M C-130J
MARS Tanker
MARS Key User Requirements (KURS) • Cargo: 19,000m3 issuable • Class II fuel; RAS @ 12kts MARS • RAS through 3 exchange points concurrently • Sustained Speed of 15kts • Endurance 7,000nm @ 15kts • Deliver core functions up to 38°C (sea temp) • Survivability in the Maritime Battle Space • Embark cargo (fuel) iaw OCIMF Regulations • Logistical inter-operability with UK/US and NATO • Exchange information iaw MoD CIS policy (SP600 series) • Operate/maintain Medium Helicopter and host a CH47
Measures of Effectiveness ‘Probability of successfully deploying sufficient tankers to support a concurrency set’ ‘Percentage of campaign effects enabled within a scenario’
Indirect Fire: Points of Impact in Basra Operating Base
Indirect Fire: Firing Point Effectiveness
External HESCO protection Internal breeze-block protection Hardened concrete shelter C-RAM Counter-IDF system
Plot showing the effectiveness of each solution, with error bars representing the 10% and 90% percent confidence values Scenario 1 showing each solution, with error bars representing the 10% and 90% percent confidence values.
MAN Support Vehicle (SV)
Summary • Know your client • Are his requirements clear and measureable? • Get senior stakeholder buy-in early • Agree Measurements of Effectiveness and scenarios up-front • Contextualise the presentation of results • Be contract aware • Understand assumptions and model limitations
Questions
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