WATER SCARCITY IN BANGLADESH AND SOUTH ASIA Major General ANM Muniruzzaman, ndc, psc (Retd) President Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) 1
Project Title Water Scarcity in Bangladesh and South Asia: Examining Dynamics of Conflict and Cooperation 2
Introduction Water is considered as one of the most crucial non-traditional security issues. It is a great irony that our planet that has 70% of its surface covered with water is facing an acute water crisis. Water scarcity is one of the key challenge in Bangladesh and South Asia. The Himalayan River Basin are seriously threatened by water stress with implications for internal and cross-boundary development and security in the region. 3
Contd The World Water Assessment Program, released World Water Development Report (WWDR, 2003), published by the UNESCO indicates that within next 20 years the availability of water would decreased to everyone by 30% . Less than 40% has the availability of hygiene water. In 2000 more than 2.2 million people died of water diseases for contaminated water. In 2004 the UK charity Water Aid reported that one child die in every 15 seconds for water-related diseases . Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable country due to climate related water challenges. Bangladesh being a river-reign country is largely dependent on natural sources of water for living. 4
Areas vulnerable to climate-related water challenges Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change 5
Rational of the Project Water is one of the most necessary components of human life. Water scarcity and stress will have serious impact on the quality of human life in this region. Disequilibrium situation in ecological balance of the country, resulting into the loss of species and plants. The scarcity of water may lead intra/ inter state conflict in South Asia . 6
Contd. Regional Linkage between Bangladesh, India and Nepal India shares with Bangladesh the same river basins, hydrological cycles and eco-universe. 54 rivers enter Bangladesh from India carrying water, silt, and pollutants. Disputes over barrages and dams India has built or is planning on the Ganges, Teesta and the Barak Rivers have become both environmental/economic and political issues in Bangladesh. 7
Contd. Should millions of IDPs be forced to leave home and find no refuge in the remaining stretches of national territory, they are very likely to try to cross over into India. Nepal shares with northern India and Bangladesh the same river basin and watershed. Nepal also is a country which Bangladesh has repeatedly urged since the late 1970s to be included in any regional flood-control/drought- management system to be devised by India and Bangladesh. 8
Contd. All the countries in South Asia region are facing acute water scarcity and are having disputes over sharing of common river water, increase probability a crisis to conflict situation. Challenges in Water Sharing 1. Too much water in monsoon and too little water in dry season. 9
Contd. 2.Construction of Dam and embankment in the upstream a. This is been threaten by upstream water withdrawal and enhanced risk during flood. b. Farakka: A problem of limited water c. Tipaimukh 3.Allocation of water in lean period is a major issue. 10
Contd. Adoption of a regional approach to mitigate the threat of conflict originating from water crisis is essential. While the situations present challenges to regional and local conflict management, there may be also seen as opportunities for cooperation. 11
Key Objectives of the Projects To assess challenges related to river water scarcity in Bangladesh and their impacts on livelihoods, socio-economic conditions and natural ecosystems. To develop a cooperative mechanism among researchers in this region to deal with the problems of water scarcity, water management and water sharing. 12
Contd. To create collaborative learning on lessons and best practices from the arrangements and cooperation mechanism in use by Central Asia and Egypt. To explore possibilities to develop institutional mechanisms and strategies for regional and sub-regional cooperation in managing water stress. 13
Contd. To create collaborative learning on international experiences in best practices in river management, both internal and trans-boundary river flows. 14
Impact of Water Scarcity In Bangladesh The main sources of water in Bangladesh are Rivers and Ground Water. Almost 800 rivers in Bangladesh, most rise from the Himalayan reign and fall into the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh is situated in the deltaic part of the region. 15
Contd. 16
Contd. Rainfall Bangladesh Environment Network has shown in a research that 2 ° c increase in temperature will lead to 4.6% increase in precipitation over Ganges River Basin. By 2050, the average annual runoff in the Bharmaputra river could be decline by 14%. 17
Contd. Sea Level Rise: The salinity levels is expected to increase further in the coastal districts. A simultaneous sea level rise would result in back water effect in the Lower Meghna Basin, pushing saline water further inland. Bangladesh has about 2·8 million hectares of land that is affected by salinity. http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/impact- of-sea-level-rise-in-bangladesh 18
Sea Level Rise: Worst Case Scenario 19
Contd. The coastal region covers almost 29,000 sq. km or about 20% of the country. Again, the coastal areas of Bangladesh cover more than 30% of the cultivable lands of the country. About 53% of the coastal areas are affected by salinity. The IPCC statistics shows that rising sea levels will wipe out more cultivable land in Bangladesh than anywhere in the world. By 2050, rice production is expected to drop 10 percent and wheat production by 30 percent. About 20 to 30 million people in Bangladesh alone could be on the move by 2050 because of climate change, causing the worst migration in human history. 20
Contd. Pollution: Inadequate draining facilities, dumping of solid wastes, discharge from sugar mills and sewage disposal, further compound the pollution problems confronting the river’s ecosystem. Severe degradation of fresh water and marine ecosystem has led to further decline of fishing in Bangladesh. 21
Contd. Arsenic Poisoning: World Health Organization described the arsenic contamination in Bangladesh as “the largest mass poisoning of a population in history” . The results of a ten year, large population study by Lancet (2010) showed the link between arsenic contamination and deaths in Bangladesh. 22
Contd. Half of Bangladeshis, up to 77 million people, have been exposed to the toxic arsenic, says the Lancet. (Source: The Lancet, Volume 376, Issue 9737, Pages 252 - 258, 24 July 2010) Figure: Intensity of Arsenic Contaminated (50 m g/L) Tubewells in Bangladesh Source:http://www.physics.harvard.edu/~wilson/arsenic/co 23 nferences/Feroze_Ahmed/Sec_2.htm
Contd. Drinking Water Quality Poor water quality, especially in rural areas has been recognized in the National Water Policy (NWP) of 1999. In rural areas, more than 97% of the population relies on groundwater for its drinking water supply. A severe supply shortage is expected by 2015 if the utility continues abstraction from groundwater at the current extent. 24
Contd. Impact on Livelihood The freshwater fish consumption fell by 38% amongst poor wetland inhabitants between 1995 and 2000. Due to water scarcity, the demand for water will outstrip the supply in Bangladesh. 25
Research Methodology Statistical analyses with the help of Stata software Quantitative data collection Data on hydrological flows Meteorological Data collection Conflict data collection Semi Structured Interviews/ In depth interviews with Key informants. 26
Contd. Project Partners: Center for Economic and Technical Studies, Nepal. Observer Research Foundation, India. Fieldwork at three different field sites: in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. Filed sites will be chosen in the same riverine basin area, in eastern Nepal, Northeast India and Bangladesh. 27
Implementation Plan Project development phase BIPSS in consultation with PRIO and NIVA will develop a complete research module. Workshop in Oslo Filed Studies Exchange Visits Data Collection, Analysis and Report Preparation Final Report dissemination and presentation of results. 28
Project Sustainability Formulate policy recommendations Governmental Agencies Policy Makers Foreign Development Partners To bridge the gap between academic research and policy analysis within Bangladesh and in South Asia. The findings of the project will bring out a possible framework for the basin-wide management of transboundary river water. 29
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