M Monsoon Asia Integrated A i I d Regional Studies g Hassan Virji International START Secretariat
Key Role of Asia in Global Change Key Role of Asia in Global Change � Identified by ICSU global change Identified by ICSU global change program as global choke point program as global choke point - Asian program as global choke point program as global choke point Asian Asian Asian change may alter Earth’s physical change may alter Earth’s physical and biochemical systems and biochemical systems � Next 25 years critical in moving to Next 25 years critical in moving to y y g g transforming the energy & industrial transforming the energy & industrial system of the region. system of the region.
What is distinctive about the What is distinctive about the region? region? � Climate Climate – – society linkages society linkages � Climate as a source of risk for development Cli Climate as a source of risk for development Cli t t f i k f f i k f d d l l t t goals goals � Can look at the Millennium development C Can look at the Millennium development C l l k t th Mill k t th Mill i i d d l l t t goals, for example goals, for example � Rapid transitions R Rapid transitions R id t id t iti iti � Demographics Demographics � Economic growth Economic growth � Settlements and urbanization Settlements and urbanization � Implications for development as a driver of Implications for development as a driver of environmental change environmental change
Urban corridor from Beijing to Tokyo via Pyongyang and Seoul. Source: F. C. Lo & Y. M. Yeung (eds.), Emerging World Cities in Pacific Asia
Overarching Regional Research Questions "- How do regional changes in, for example, land use, industrial practices, energy production, and urbanization alter regional atmospheric composition, the regional water cycle, and local ecosystem structure and function? - How can such changes within a region or in combination with those from other regions affect biogeochemical cycles with those from other regions affect biogeochemical cycles and physical aspects of climate on a global scale? - How will the ensemble of global change, acting through either direct effects or through altered feedbacks, lead to ff g f , further regional change in the biospheric life support system?” 1990 Bellagio Report
Integrated Regional Studies of Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies of Monsoon Asia • What region will be like in 50 years? – Land use cover change/intensification Land use cover change/intensification – Urbanization – Industrial practices – Energy production – Dam construction • Consequences for the Earth System – Biogeochemical cycles – Physical climate system – Hydrological cycle • Consequences for the region – Land Transformation – Regional Atmospheric composition R i l At h i iti – Local eco-system structure and functioning – Marine and coastal ecosystems – Vulnerability assessment (food, water & health) Vulnerability assessment (food, water & health) • Effects of direct/indirect feedbacks on biosphere/sustainability of the region
The LBA Framework LBA Framework
Human Human Driving Forces Human Responses: R Regional i l Sustainable Environmental Development Change Strategies Biophysical y Impacts and Responses Global Conceptual framework for an integrated study of global change Change and sustainable development in Southeast Asia
From: Fu Congbin
ProMed: Project Mediterranean ProMed: Project Mediterranean
The MIT Integrated Global The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) System Model (IGSM) System Model (IGSM) System Model (IGSM) The current IGSM The current IGSM formulation includes formulation includes •an economic model for •an economic model for analysis of greenhouse and analysis of greenhouse and y y g g aerosol precursor gas aerosol precursor gas emissions and mitigation emissions and mitigation proposals, proposals, •a coupled model of •a coupled model of atmospheric chemistry and atmospheric chemistry and climate, and climate, and •models of terrestrial •models of terrestrial ecosystems. ecosystems. All of these models are All of these models are global but with appropriate global but with appropriate levels of regional detail. levels of regional detail. g
Root drivers (population, consumption) Aerosols Upstream Upstream Land use/cover linkages, or Change & Ag. GHG drivers Intensification emissions emissions Development Global climate and G pathways BGC Monsoon system Monsoon system Water Water Downstream linkages or effects effects Hazards Hazards
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS POPULATION, CONSUMPTION, URBANIZATION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION, INSTITUTIONS INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION INSTITUTIONS 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 2 2 LAND (COVER, CHANGE, LAND (COVER CHANGE 1 1 GHG AEROSOLS AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS INTENSIFICATION 1 2 1, 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 5 5 WATER(QUANTITY, ATMOSPHERIC 2 QUALITY AND USE); COMPOSITION CATCHMENT AND AIR 1, 2 1, 2 HYDROLOGY HYDROLOGY QUALITY QUALITY ECOSYSTEMS AND 1, 2 BIOGEOCHEMICAL 5 2 5 CYCLES 1, 2 1, 2 MONSOON 5 GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM SYSTEM (i SYSTEM (including l di (Including seas and coastal 4 Oceans) zones; extreme events and 3 3 hazards) 5 5 5 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS, MITIGATION and ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
Schematic representation of the system forcings and responses, and how they might be investigated within thematic components of Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KEY for the numbers on the figure (Processes and potential relation to ESSP programs): 1 1: Land Surface Processes (Land Transformation/IGBP) S f ( f i / G ) 2: Atmospheric Processes and Air Quality (ILEAPS and IGAC/IGBP) IGAC/IGBP) 3. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions (SOLAS/IGBP) {NOT TO BE ADDRESED IN MAIRS??} ADDRESED IN MAIRS??} 4. Climate and Water Cycle (GEWEX, CLIVAR/WCRP; PAGES/IGBP and GWSP/ESSP) PAGES/IGBP and GWSP/ESSP) 5. Risk and Vulnerability Assessments; Mitigation; Adaptation (ESSP) ( )
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Change Change What are the consequences of variability and change in climate for What are the consequences of variability and change in climate for � biodiversity in natural thru to intensively managed terrestrial and biodiversity in natural thru to intensively managed terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems? aquatic ecosystems? � Changes in timing of monsoon; Extreme events; ENSO intensity, Changes in timing of monsoon; Extreme events; ENSO intensity, frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems frequency; Agro and Urban ecosystems � How resilient are the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia to different How resilient are the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia to different intensities and forms of use? intensities and forms of use? � What are the consequences of changes in biodiversity (losses and What are the consequences of changes in biodiversity (losses and biological invasions) for ecosystem functions? biological invasions) for ecosystem functions? � How much redundancy is enough? How much redundancy is enough? How can conservation of biodiversity be incorporated into How can conservation of biodiversity be incorporated into � de elopment strategies of transitional economies? de elopment strategies of transitional economies? development strategies of transitional economies? development strategies of transitional economies? � What are the most critical drivers of changes in biodiversity? What are the most critical drivers of changes in biodiversity? � � Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any Does loss of biodiversity from the Asian Monsoon region have any significant consequences for the resilience of the Earth System ? significant consequences for the resilience of the Earth System ? Synthesis/integration; observation coordination; Synthesis/integration; observation coordination; �
Proposed Membership for MAIRS Steering Group SAS SEA TEA MAIRS SG
MAIRS Bangkok meeting March 2003 Proposed IPO in CAS Proposed IPO in CAS # approved by ESSP in June; # Funding approved by President of CAS # Funding approved by President of CAS # Call for application of Director of IPO shortly shortly
MAIRS for East Asia MAIRS for East Asia START-SCOPE project for fast assessment, Part one for East Asia: Book Title : Book Title : Changes in the Human-Monsoon system of East Asia in the Context of Global Change in the Context of Global Change 7 parts and 24 chapters Teams: lead authors, co-authors and contributors, reviewers and editors Time table
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