Looking into the future of our generation Comments on Understanding - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Looking into the future of our generation Comments on Understanding of children’s work and youth employment outcomes in Indonesia and youth employment outcomes in Indonesia WB, UNICEF, ILO Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo Jakarta: Bappenas, 20 June 2012 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 1

Timely concern • Indonesia is facing explosion of young population • Demographic transition leads to changes in age structure • The declining dependency ratio creates ‘bonus demography’ or demographic dividend demography’ or demographic dividend • This will lead to the ‘window of opportunity’ where dependency ratio is the lowest, 44 children per 100 workers • How can we utilize this golden moment to pursue economic growth? • Human capital development is the answer! 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 2

Explosion of the working age 1950-2050 and the Windows of Opportunity 2020-2030 Dependency Ratio 0-14, 65+, total Indonesia 1950-2050 Trend in number of children, working-age and older 90 persons, Indonesia, 1950-2050 Total 80 250 Demographic Dividend 70 Window of Opportunity Young [<15] 200 60 working-age 50 ulation in millions Percent 150 40 30 100 Populat 20 children 0-14 10 50 Old [>65] 0 older persons 65+ 0 Year Year Rejuvenation of the working age (Widjojo, 1970) • Bonus Demography and the Window of Opportunity. 2020-2030 • Leads to economic growth: employment opportunity, investment, labor participation of women and investment • of children’s education with quality, skill and competence 11/06/2012 smadioetomo/FMS2012 3 Sumber : Prof. Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo SE MA PhD Head of Masters Program on Population and Labor University of Indonesia; 2011

Today’s jobless or inadequately employed youth are often yesterday’s child labourers yesterday’s child labourers page 1 Introduction Summary Report 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 4

Labour Force Projection by Education and the expected New Entry to LF Tertiary 100% education 90% High School 80% Junior high 70% 60% tages Percentage 50% Primary or less 40% Expected new entry to LF 30% Need to prepare our children to correct this 20% profile 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Calculated by SM Adioetomo. Base projection: Sakernas 2010. 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 5

The education profile of Indonesian labour market, 2010-2030 1. Assumption: people who enter the labor market with a particular education attainment, and without intervention to improve their education, will stay with this education until retired or exit 2. Until 2015, 37,5 % of our labour market is filled 2. Until 2015, 37,5 % of our labour market is filled with people with primary school or less 3. In 2025, this decrease 24, 9 %. 4. The new entry should be able to make correction of the LF profile. 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 6

How to improve our LM profile? • Need to prepare our children to enter labour market with quality education, skill (technical and soft skills) and competence to challenge the competitive labour market in 2020-2030 when the Window of Opportunity is open. • Who should be prioritized? – Children born in 1995, now aged 17 yrs and will be 25-35 years in 2020-2030 should be prepared to enter labour years in 2020-2030 should be prepared to enter labour market – Children born in 2000, now aged 12 yrs will be 20-30 yrs in should be ready to enter LM – Children born in 2005, now age 7 yrs will be 15-25 yrs in 2020-2030 should be prepared to enter labour market • Note: but need to keep children 15-24 to stay in school. 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 7

Looking at the past trend is always useful to anticipate future trend useful to anticipate future trend 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 8

Decreasing Labor Force Participation Rate, children 10-17 years old 2001-2010 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 10 - 12 13 - 14 15.00 15 - 17 10.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 1. Decreasing rates of children in the labor market. 2. Indication of higher enrolment in schooling? 3. But children aged 10-12 in LM is still apparent, should be sent back to school 4. Who is responsible? Parents? (should be empowered), Government? (social protection should be expanded and right targeting). 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 9

Increasing number of children still in school, but lower number of girls than boys stay in school. Gender bias in children’s education. Number of children still in shool by Number of children still in school by age (Male) age (Female) 600,000 600,000 500,000 500,000 400,000 400,000 300,000 300,000 200,000 200,000 100,000 100,000 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 10

Decreasing trend in percentage of children dropped out from school Percentages of children dropped out from school 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 10 - 12 50.00 13 - 14 40.00 15 - 17 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags 2006Ags 2007Ags 2008Ags 2009Ags 2010 2005 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 11

But, thousands of children have no schooling at all. Not yet/ never attending school Not yet/ never attending school (Male) (Female) 50,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 10 - 12 13 - 14 15 - 17 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 12

Children with no schooling mostly in rural areas, gender bias prevail. Increasing trend? Boys 10-17 yrs with no schooling Girls 10-17 yrs with no schooling 8.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 Urban 4.00 Urban Rural Rural 3.00 Total 3.00 Total 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 2001200220032004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2001200220032004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 13

Unemployment of children is decreasing. Did they find work? But work for children age 10-12 should be abolished Number of children who are Unemployement Rate of unemployment Children 1,600,000 70 1,400,000 60 1,200,000 50 1,000,000 40 800,000 10 - 12 10 - 12 13 - 14 13 - 14 30 600,000 15 - 17 15 - 17 400,000 20 200,000 10 0 0 2001200220032004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/B appenas UCW 14

The trend is stable: number of children who were employed Trend in Number of children who are employed 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 10 - 12 1,500,000 13 - 14 Children age 10-12 who work should be eliminated 15 - 17 Children age 13-14 are permitted to work with conditions 1,000,000 500,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 2005 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 15

Trend in Education of Child Labour, Employed children 10-12 yrs most likely comes from the poorest family. Empowerment of parents, CCT program should be expanded Education of Employed Education of Employed Education of Employed children (10-12) children (15-17) children (13-14) 100.0 100.00 100.0 90.00 90.0 90.0 80.00 80.0 80.0 70.00 70.0 70.0 60.00 60.0 60.0 50.00 40.00 40.00 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 30.00 40.0 40.0 20.00 30.0 30.0 10.00 20.0 20.0 0.00 10.0 10.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 0.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov 2005 Ags 2006 Ags 2007 Ags 2008 Ags 2009 Ags 2010 No Schooling No Schooling Did not/has not completed No Schooling Elementary Did not/has not completed Did not/has not completed Elementary Completed elementary Elementary Completed elementary Completed elementary General Junior High School General Junior High School General Junior High School Vocational Junior High School General Senior High School 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 16

Status of work 10-12 yrs mostly unpaid family workers, the trend is stable Status of work (10-12) 100.0 90.0 Unpaid worker 80.0 Casual non-agricultural 70.0 worker 76.4 76.7 79.1 60.0 81.8 81.8 82.1 82.1 82.6 82.6 85.0 85.0 89.0 89.0 Casual agricultural 50.0 worker 40.0 Laborer/staff 30.0 Employer assisted by 20.0 9.2 8.9 8.4 permanent/paid 7.4 6.2 10.0 7.0 6.5 workers 6.7 3.5 4.3 Employer assisted by 0.0 non permanent/ unpaid 2001 2002 2003 2004 Nov Ags Ags Ags Ags Ags workers 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20/06/2012 SM Adioetomo/Bappenas UCW 17