Livestock and global food security with special focus on the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Livestock and global food security with special focus on the feed/food debate Some alternative facts by Cees de Haan Presentation at SKOV 16/11/2017

My background • Born and raised on a dairy farm; • Studied tropical animal production at WUR; • Career in livestock Champion of development; vegetarian • But also critical on the groups with sector: 3223 citations – Livestock’s long shadow; • Thus only limited pro- livestock bias

Main messages • The livestock sector makes important positive contributions to global food security; • There are undoubtedly a number of negative effects, often pushed by anti-livestock groups: – Less drain on human plant-based food than often assumed; and • There is a good pool of technology and policy measures to mitigate the negative effects.

THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR’S CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE

Livestock’s positive contributions to food security • Produces over 1 billion million ton (meat and milk combined) of highly nutritious food (25 % of global protein consumption, main source of some vitamins); – Test scores primary school students increase by 5 and 20 % with small amount of meat (Neumann, 2007) • 40% of Agricultural GDP and growing….. • Income/food/drought resilience tool for 1.5 billion people, of which 750 million below poverty line and the majority women; • Essential for arable farming (traction, manure, fertilizer); – (15-80 % of farms in Africa with traction and key organic fertilizer almost everywhere else) • Stabilizes grain markets; and • Key component of a circular economy; – Reduces land requirements without resource depletion (Fresco, 2017)

Global animal product demand continues to grow (million tons) 600 500 400 Eggs Poultry 300 Pork 200 Red meat 100 0 1961/1963 2005/2007 2050

SOME ALTERNATIVE FACTS ON THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER, COMPETITION FOR LAND AND FOOD/FEED

But: 51 % is based on document that: • Uses starting point first version of Long Shadow (18%) • Lower(13.5%) — more correct-- share almost never quoted • Compares complete chain with muffler emission only • Adds all livestock respiration; and • Double counts: all livestock related emission of world with and then adds without livestock

26000 Liters per kg meat Water use/kg meat 30000 • Pimentel (2004) even higher 25000 (120,000-200,000 kg meat ) by 20000 allocating all precipitation on 15000 rangeland to meat 10000 • Mekonnen et al (2012) • 5000 Only halve of what quoted in 0 fake news; Netherlands Av. 4 Cowspiracy • 94 % is green water (part of the countries evapotranspiration flux); Source Mekonnen et al 2012

Meat/plant-based diet choices The main focus of this presentation Financieel Dagblad 08/25/2017 Chickens and pigs convert grain into meat at rates of two or three to one (ie, it takes 2kg of feed to produce 1kg of chicken). The ratio for lamb is between four and over six to one and that for beef starts at five to one and goes as high as 20 to one The Economist 31/12/2013 Similar high grain/meat ratios spread through scientific literature (see paper )

But, these data: • Doesn’t recognize the wide variety of production systems and other services of livestock; and • Gives only the conversion rate of beef cattle at feedlot stage: – Accounts for only between 7% (FAO, 2009) and 13 % (our study) of global beef production; and – Cover only the final stage of the fattening period.

The Feed/Food Debate From champion to villain of the vegetarian community

Inputs/outputs GLEAM model used in this paper Feed • Industrialized: national inventories, surveys, lit. • Developing: modeling feed Ruminants availability (crops and fodder) Validated and animal requirements, with 121 expert knowledge For each publications production system Swill and scavenging calculates Non- Local and non local produced feed: ration in Yields, literature and local ruminants each pixel knowledge. and aggregated Land use potential for food production to global Spatial distribution of pasture and rangeland maps( FAO, Henderson) and level ILASA/FAO actual/potential yield ratio(25%) for unsuitable crop land Livestock distribution Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) Robinson/FAO More information: see paper (supplemental information) and Gerber et al (2013)

RESULTS Land use, feed intake and feed conversion (global and by species/region )

Current global land use for livestock 7% Grassland suitable for 5% food crops 27% Grassland unsuitable for 11% crops Grain for livestock Oil seed crops Other crops 50% Source Mottet et al 2017

Global grassland suitable and unsuitable for crop production Source: Robinson et al 2014

Global livestock feed intake 6 Billion ton Dry Matter Fodder crops 8% Crop residues Oil seed cakes 19% 5% By-products Grass and 5% leaves Grains 47% 13% Other edible 3% Source Mottet et al 2017

Human edible food to animal source food conversion To Produce 1 To Produce 1 kg animal protein kg boneless meat Kg DM human Kg human Kg human edible edible feed edible food food protein protein needed (including all soybean) needed Ruminants 2.8 1.0 0.6 Non ruminants 3.2 2.0 4.2 All species 3.1 1.3 2.6 Source Mottet et al 2017

Breakdown by region and system of key feed conversion data Species System Kg DM human edible KG protein from human food/kg deboned meat edible feed/kg protein product NON OECD OECD NON OECD OECD Cattle Grazing 0.9 3.9 0.2 0.5 Mixed 3.1 6.0 0.5 0.7 Feedlot 7.9 9.4 3.5 4.1 Poultry Broilers 3.5 3.6 5.2 5.0 Pigs Industrial 3.9 4.0 4.6 4,4 Source Mottet et al 2017

Limitations of the paper • Limited data (rations, livestock numbers, feed use efficiency); • Land allocation lacks opportunity costs criteria; • Assumptions on actual/potential yield in grassland convertibility: – A change from the currently used 25% to 10 % would increase are of grassland suitable for cropping by about 20% • Changing consumption patterns and policies.

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POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS Production side: • Land use and GHG emission. Consumption side: • Alternative sources of protein, reduction of consumption

Effect of increasing feed conversion efficiency on changes in human edible food intake by livestock and area needed to grow human (2010-2025) Meat Intake Area Production Low FCR High FCR Low FCR High FCR increase (a) increase (b) increase(a) increase(b) Non OECD +24% +20% +14% -4% -10% OECD +14% +12% +7% +1% -4% Total +21% +17% +15% -2% -8% a: 0-5 % improvement in FCR, depending on the species b: 7-15% improvement in FCR, depending on the species S ource Mottet et al 2017

GHG emission reduction potential Whole sector applying the practices of the 10th percentile of producers with the lowest emissions intensities, while maintaining constant output. http://www.fao.org/gleam/results/en/

Effect of Intensification on GHG emission in milk production

GHG sequestration and emission reduction Silvo-pastoral systems • Annually 5 ton CO2 eq./ha sequestered Methane and nitrous oxide reduced by 21 percent and 36 percent respectively . Average price US $ 9 per ton; • Bio-diversity in birds and butterflies increased by 40 and 94 percent respectively; • Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) water improved from 11 ppm in 2003 to less than 1.2 ppm in 2007; • Average annual net farmers income in Costa Rica and Nicaragua increased from US $ 136 to US $ 216 per ha; and • Poor farmers earned a higher payment per ha than the wealthier groups.

Other technologies A fast moving field • Rumen manipulation – Inhibitors, enzymes, etc. • Feed quality improvement; – Crude protein and fiber. • Genetic improvement – Selection for low methane emission, productivity. • Manure management – Storage, biogas, etc.

OR CONSUMER SIDE Alternative sources of protein

Protein consumption/person ( g/day) Livestock protein meat dairy eggs total as % of (not butter) recommended of Region year total “safe” consumption Africa 1995 5.3 3.1 0.6 9 2005 5.9 3.4 0.6 9.9 17 Americas 1995 26.1 14.3 2.7 43.1 2005 28.1 14.1 3.1 45.3 78 Asia 1995 7.5 3.8 2.2 13.5 2005 9.2 4.7 2.7 16.6 29 Europe 1995 24.1 17.9 3.6 45.6 2005 24.7 19.2 3.8 47.7 82 Oceania 1995 24.9 18 1.9 44.8 2005 39.3 15.8 1.7 56.8 98 1995 3.3 2.2 0.2 5.7 Least developed countries 2005 4.1 2.7 0.3 7.1 12 FAO SOFA (2011)

Reducing consumption • Reducing consumption in OECD countries: – Healthy diet 500 gram red meat per week (WHO) – EU (28) now 800 gr. – Processed meat. • Veganism: – Only 1 percent of OECD population (5 percent vegetarianism); – Increases but from very low basis; – Flexitarians strongest increase. • Meat substitutes: – 5 % of meat market; increasing over past decade – But still major important challenges ahead.