Little Forest Burial Ground Scenario: Results M. Johansen & J. Twining NMES Project, Institute for Environmental Research EMRAS II, WG 4, IAEA Vienna, Jan 2011
Before looking at results - Refresher on Participant’s approaches alpha, Soil beta, Notes on run/numeric Participant Code Vers ’ n CR sources CR distributions distrib ’ n gamma parameters ERICA 2009 Wildlife Transfer Database Log N (when S. Dev Log N 10, 3, 1 200 probability realizations CEH update (Dec 2010) except: was available in Centre for Ecology v. 1.0 Grass Co-60 (Tecdoc 1616) database) Yam (tuber, Tecdoc 1616) & Hydrology, Or, Lancaster, UK Expon. (when S. Dev not available) ERICA ERICA defaults except: Log N (when S. Dev Log N 10, 3, 1 Used ERICA Tier 3 default for E ’ worm SCK-CEN Grass (Tecdoc 1616), and, was available in and grass (RAPs), Used ERICA “ new org ” for all else. Belgian Nuclear Yam (Tecdoc 1616) database) Progeny included if ½-life < 10d. Research Centre, Or, Mol, Belgium Expon. (when S. Dev Th-234 not included. not available) JSI ERICA ERICA defaults ERICA default Log N 10, 3, 1 Jozef Stefan distributions Institute, Ljubljana, Log N and Expon.] Slovenia FASTer-lite CRs from: Log N Steady- State Probabilistic (Eikos) NRPA with ERICA Tool database. for Co, Cs, and U where equilib Norwegian ERICA, (soil-to-food only) reached quickly. Radiation Eikos, and Eikos and ECOLEGO Else, Protection ECOLOGO (soil-to-org) Dynamic (ECOLEGO) for 50% Authority, DCCs generated using ERICA Organism lifespan. Oesteraas, Norway Tier 3 “ Add Organism ” KAERI K-Biota ERICA defaults for grass, tree, Log N, 10, 3, 1 Korea Atomic e ’ worm, insect, bird exponential Energy Research TRS 364 for yam (potato) Institute, Daejeon, K-allometric for goanna, Republic of Korea echidna, fox, wallaby RESRAD- RESRAD CR defaults Trunc. Log N, Log N 20, 1, 1 1500 prob realizations ANL Biota Journal refs Bounded Log N, Ext DCF cals, progeny w/<6mo ½ life Argonne National Exponential in equilibrium. Laboratory, IL, Int DCF calcs, progeny w/<100 ½ life USA in equilib. Half-life cut-off at 180 days. Mike Wood/U. of RESRAD- RESRAD CR recomm. (Grass- Not used Not used 20, 1, 1 Liverpool/ Biota insect) K-allometric (Goanna-wallaby) (Manchester?)
Two complimentary approaches to analysing results • Statistical approach comparing geometric means of “distances” among participant’s results data. Compares CRs, Int dose, Ext dose, and total dose rates (next presentation by Jordi). • Identify differences in the progression from CR- Tissue Conc-Dose rate results to identify likely sources of variation. Quantify number & type of sources and the degree of variation (this presentation).
Comparisons of CRs, tissue concentrations and dose estimates CR variations Example 1: If the same pattern of variation carries through from CR-TC-Dose this implies Tissue concentration that variation in dose was pattern same as CR caused by differences in CR pattern Dose pattern same as CR pattern
Comparisons of CRs, tissue concentrations and dose estimates CR variations Example 2: When the only change in CR-TC-Dose pattern is between CR and TC, it implies that the variation in dose was caused by Tissue Concentration differences in food chain model pattern is different from CR: c.f. direct media-biota relationship or assumptions of occupancy factor Dose pattern same as Tissue Concentration Pattern:
Comparisons of CRs, tissue concentrations and dose estimates CR variations Tissue concentration pattern same as CRs: Example 3: Pattern of variation in Tissue Concentrations does not carry through to Dose Dose pattern different means that dose variation was from TCs: caused by differences in DCC, RBE, Progeny assumptions, geometry and/or occupancy factors (external dose)
E RICA - CE H Grass - Mean Concentration Ratios E RICA - SCK E RICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAE RI 10 RE SRAD-BIOTA - ANL 1 RE SRAD MDW 0.1 0.01 CRs generally 0.001 0.0001 carry through to 0.00001 1 0 7 2 4 8 8 9 0 4 TCs 3 3 3 3 3 3 -6 r-9 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 o m S h U U u u C s C T P P A Grass - Tissue Concentrations (mean, 5th-95th percentiles) 1.E+04 1.E+03 Cs – best studied, 1.E+02 1.E+01 1.E+00 small distributions, 1.E-01 g K 1.E-02 / 1.E-03 q tightest results B 1.E-04 1.E-05 1.E-06 1.E-07 1.E-08 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-09 1.E-10 TCs generally ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW carry through to Dose – but not Total dose (mean) & 5-95th percentiles Grass - Dose Estimates Internal dose (mean) exactly 1.E-04 E xternal dose (mean) 1.E-05 1.E-06 RESRAD B up 1.E-07 1.E-08 ~0.5 OM for Th, 1.E-09 U & Pu = RBE? y 1.E-10 a d 1.E-11 / y G 1.E-12 Th- 232 Progeny inclusion 1.E-13 K-biota lower 1.E-14 ~1 OM for Th & 1.E-15 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-16 above = DCCs 1.E-17 ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW 1.E-18 +/or progeny?
E RICA - CE H Acacia - Concentration Ratios E RICA - SCK E RICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAE RI 10 RE SRAD-BIOTA - ANL 1 RE SRAD MDW 0.1 0.01 Example of CR 0.001 0.0001 not carried 0.00001 7 2 4 8 8 9 1 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 4 through to TCs 6 9 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 - - o r - - - - - - S - m C s h U U u u C T P P A CEH Acacia Acacia - Tissue Concentrations (mean, 5th-95th percentiles) trunk TC is 1.E+04 1.E+03 lower (Co & Pu 1.E+02 1.E+01 3 OM, Cs & Am 1.E+00 1.E-01 g K 1.E-02 2 OM, Sr, U & / 1.E-03 q B 1.E-04 Th ~1 OM. 1.E-05 1.E-06 TCs ~ carried 1.E-07 1.E-08 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-09 through to Doses 1.E-10 ERICA - CEH -roots ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW ERICA CEH trunk but similar Total dose (mean) & 5-95th percentiles between-model Acacia - Dose Estimates Th- 232 progeny Internal dose (mean) differences E xternal dose (mean) 1.E-04 Plus some 1.E-05 1.E-06 new effects 1.E-07 1.E-08 JSI only in Z1, 1.E-09 occupancy factor y 1.E-10 a d 1.E-11 (not Co) / y RESRAD up ~ 0.5 OoM G 1.E-12 Sr90 Ext D higher 1.E-13 K-biota dn ~ 1 OoM 1.E-14 in RESRAD = 1.E-15 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 DCC? 1.E-16 ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI 1.E-17 Separation of CEH RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW ERICA CEH trunk 1.E-18 & SCK – biodist?
E RICA - CE H Yam - Concentration Ratios E RICA - SCK E RICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAE RI 10 More variable RE SRAD-BIOTA - ANL 1 RE SRAD MDW CRs than for 0.1 0.01 trees & grasses. 0.001 0.0001 Hardly any 0.00001 2 7 4 8 8 9 1 0 0 3 3 3 3 4 replication for -6 r-9 3 3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 o S m s h U U u u C C T P P A any isotope Yam - Tissue Concentrations (mean, 5th-95th percentiles) 1.E+04 1.E+03 1.E+02 CRs generally 1.E+01 1.E+00 carry through to 1.E-01 g 1.E-02 K 1.E-03 q / TCs B 1.E-04 1.E-05 1.E-06 1.E-07 1.E-08 1.E-09 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-10 ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW Same general observations Total dose (mean) & 5-95th percentiles Yam - Dose Estimates Internal dose (mean) and E xternal dose (mean) 1.E-04 conditions on 1.E-05 1.E-06 carry through 1.E-07 to Dose 1.E-08 1.E-09 y 1.E-10 a d 1.E-11 / y G 1.E-12 1.E-13 1.E-14 1.E-15 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-16 1.E-17 ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW 1.E-18
E RICA - CE H Earthworm - Concentration Ratios E RICA - SCK E RICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAE RI 10 Most RE SRAD-BIOTA - ANL RE SRAD MDW 1 consistency 0.1 w.r.t. CRs 0.01 0.001 0.0001 7 2 4 8 8 9 1 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 9 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 - - 0.00001 o r - - - - - - S - h U U u u m C s C T P P A Earthworm - Tissue Concentrations 1.E+03 (mean, 5th-95th percentiles) 1.E+02 1.E+01 Consistency 1.E+00 1.E-01 carries through 1.E-02 g K 1.E-03 / q B 1.E-04 to TCs 1.E-05 1.E-06 1.E-07 Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-08 1.E-09 1.E-10 ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW Total dose (mean & 5-95th percentiles) Same general Earthworm - Dose Estimates Internal dose (mean) E xternal dose (mean) variations 1.E-04 1.E-05 converting to 1.E-06 1.E-07 Dose as before. 1.E-08 1.E-09 1.E-10 y a But: / d 1.E-11 y G 1.E-12 Note RESRAD biota 1.E-13 1.E-14 models for Sr-90 (in Co-60 Sr-90 Cs-137 Th-232 U-234 U-238 Pu-238 Pu-239 Am-241 1.E-15 1.E-16 addition to Th-232) 1.E-17 ERICA - CEH ERICA - SCK ERICA - JSI K-BIOTA - KAERI RESRAD-BIOTA - ANL RESRAD MDW 1.E-18
Recommend
More recommend
