Lineages of Scholars in pre-industrial Europe: Nepotism vs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lineages of Scholars in pre-industrial Europe: Nepotism vs. Intergenerational Human Capital Transmission David de la Croix 1 ni 2 Marc Go˜ 1 Universit´ e catholique Louvain and CEPR 2 University of Vienna CSEF-DISES, 5 February 2020

Motivation ◮ Parent-child correlations suggest low persistence of SES outcomes. “from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” —Becker and Tomes (1986). ◮ Multi-generation estimates find higher persistence (Clark 2015). ◮ Children inherit highly-persistent underlying endowments. ◮ Noisily proxied by observed outcomes (e.g., income). ◮ What are these underlying endowments? ◮ Human capital, genes, and abilities. ◮ Nepotism prevalent in certain top professions. ◮ Human capital vs. nepotism have different policy implications. ◮ Econometrically, they are associated to two different biases: measurement error and selection. 2

This paper ◮ We propose a new method to disentangle nepotism vs. human capital. ◮ Families of university scholars and members of scientific academies (1088–1800). 3

Human capital transmission vs. Nepotism George Turgot 10 Forster Forster Forster Forster Helvetius Warton 12 Cardano Stewart Burnett Burman Voet Bartholin Gronovius Franklin Martyn Argenson Burnett Leyser Albinus Racine Platter Monro Gothofred Gmelin Blackwell Bernoulli Bernoulli Bernoulli Bernoulli Bernoulli Buxtorf Spanheim Turretin 10 Patin Stryk Gerhard Walch 8 Malvasia Turretin Grynaeus Wishart Cramer Trommsdorff Trommsdorff Trommsdorff Krause Slevogt Calvert Wedel Wedel Hamberger Cavendish Tibbon Tibbon Werenfels Riolan Platter Yorke Cassini Cassini Cassini Vultejus Cocceji Bartholin Burnett BoscDAntic Slevogt Wollaston Lauremberg Bernoulli Bernoulli Bernoulli Ploucquet Vater Vater Meibom Eichhorn DeFerriere Zwinger Mauvillon Hyde Dillenius Hoffmann Sons' publications (in logs) Hopfner Celsius Schooten Berger Sons' publications (in logs) Meibom Tralles Percy Crell Crell Sebiz Osborne Schenck Schelhammer Honert Walch Wishart Cassini Cassini Bartholin Chicoyneau Bellers Balthasar 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Bernoulli Rhaw Beauvilliers Tronchin Ailhaud Bacmeister Horneius Stephani Magnol Lorentz Zwinger 6 Buchwald Baudiss Restout Pelargus BernidegliAntoni Rumpel Arnoldi Nebel Pohl Schroter Schroter Pohl Langguth Vallisneri Patin Marchetti Hert Alefeld Scheinemann Helwig Gezelius Duret Schmidt Accursio Grynaeus Rast Brenz WeiganmeierFomann Lutkemann Fuller Overkamp Kipping Wormius Swantenius Maurice Wijnpersse Lemerre Schooten Voorda Weise Crocius Opitz Molyneux Gockel Trudaine Trudaine Stobaeus Mentzer Habermann Becker Matthaeus Kleinschmidt Franck Walch Abigdor Linck Tintoretto Kornmann Leger Wepfer Hoffmann Scheibler March Hydren Boecler Molther Schroder Mercklin 4 Bourdelin Canterzani Lysius Mogling Mogling Trumph Arduino Cremer Seip Hire Duising Snell Chartier Sebiz Marbach Mauchart Thom Cresques Bohmer Bohmer Garmann Furstenau Ehrhart Dreier Wernsdorf Fontaine Koch Mogling Baumer Valentini Papke Pregizer Mogling Corsini Bohmer Bebel Dacheroden Willebrand Fehr Franck De Arntzenius BussyRabutin Wormius Zoppio Zoppio Becker Amaseo Brochmand Patin Valliere Eyssonius Cellius Widmann Bernoulli 4 Konig Becker Fornelius Osiander Pidoux Willemet Runge Pantaleon Ryhiner Maynier Stahelin Doni Filicaia Bontius Grass Sanden Gorski Pietre Broussonnet Nigidius Segers Runge Lindemann Zaunschliffer Duverney Rast Akakia Baier Hottinger Rhaw Cusson Cusson Borcholten Hire Hellfeld Saporta CoquebertdeMonbret Villars Boecler Hahn Krafft Sascerides Bohmer Boulduc Boulduc Bignon Preuss Pocquet Matthaeus Cravetta Gavinet Rumpel Musaus Michelotti Bechtold Bentinck Hensler 2 Mesmes Arsendo Fiennes GallaratiLomeno Abrek Sassenus Deutsch Bauhin Vieussens Mayer Willermoz Cambout Pacheco Ribiers Michelotti Michelotti Gonzaga Costeo Engelbrecht Vaillant 2 Chastelain Stobaeus Ormesson Bicais Moreau Moreau Willett Muhrbeck Mulerius Lonicerus Pryss Fehr Kleinschmidt Accorumbonus Goulu Wayen Schulz 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Fathers' publications (in logs) Fathers' publications (in logs) b = 0.51 (s.e. 0.02) KS = 0.10 (p-val 0.00)

Preview of the Results ◮ High prevalence of nepotism in pre-industrial universities. ◮ 15% scholars’ sons are nepotic scholars. ◮ Nepotism decreases during Scientific Revolution and Enlightenment. ◮ Nepotism more prevalent in Catholic universities. ◮ High rate of transmission of human capital ( ≈ 0.6): ◮ Higher than suggested by parent-child correlations. ◮ Lower than multigenerational estimates. ◮ Varies across time, institutions, fields of study... 5

Related literature ◮ Intergenerational persistence: ◮ Parent-child: Becker and Tomes (1986), Solon (1999), Mazumder (2005), Corak (2006), Mulder et al. (2009), Black and Devereux (2011), Chetty et al. (2014), Zylberberg (2016), Bordieu et al. (2017). ◮ Multiple generations: Guell et al. (2015), Clark (2015), Clark and Cumins (2015), Braun and Stuhler (2018), Collado et al. (2019), Lindhal et al. (2015), Adermon et al. (2018), Long and Ferrie (2018), Colagrossi et al. (2019). ◮ Top professions: Lentz and Laband (1989,1992), Dunn and Holtz-Eakin (2000), Perez-Gonzalez (2006), Bennedsen et al. (2007), Dal Bo et al. (2009), Durante et al. (2011), Raitano and Vona (2018), Bell et al. (2018), Aina and Nicoletti (2018). ◮ Upper-tail human capital: Grief (2006), Cantoni and Yuchtman (2014), Mokyr et al. (2002), Mokyr (2016), Squiacciarini and Voigtlander (2015), de la Croix, Doepke, Mokyr (2018). 6

Road map 1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Data 4. Structural estimation 5. Extensions 6. Conclusion 7

Parent-child intergenerational elasticity ( b ) y i , t +1 = b y i , t + e i , t +1 , ◮ where i families; t parents; t + 1 children; y in logs. ˆ b y t country source 0.31-0.41 Wealth Agric. societies Mulder et al. (2009) 0.48-0.59 Wealth UK Harbury & Hitchins (1979) 0.47 Earnings USA Corak (2012) 0.31-0.33 Earnings UK Corak (2012) 0.19-0.26 Earnings Sweden Jantti et al. (2006) 0.46 Education USA Hertz et al. 2007 0.35 Education Sweden Lindahl et al. 2015 → Reversion to the mean in three generations! 8 more half-life

Measurement error Children inherit (unobserved) endowment h which translates into (observed) outcome y imperfectly. ◮ First-order Markov process of endowments transmission: N ( µ h , σ 2 h i , t ∼ h ) , h i , t +1 = β h i , t + u i , t +1 where u i , t +1 ∼ N ( µ u , σ 2 u ). ◮ Measurement error: y i , t = g ( h i , t , ǫ i , t ) , y i , t +1 = g ( h i , t +1 , ǫ i , t +1 ) where ǫ i , t , ǫ i , t +1 ∼ N (0 , σ 2 ǫ ) and g ( · ) is linear. 9

Bias and proposed solutions σ 2 E (ˆ h b ) = β := β θ , where θ < 1 σ 2 h + σ 2 ε 1. Multi-generation elasticities (Braun Stuhler 2018): b m = Cov( y i , t , y i , t + m ) = θβ m Var( y i , t ) = θβ 2 ◮ Identification: b 2 θβ = β . b 1 ◮ Data: multiple generations (census). 2. Surname-average (Clark 2015, Clark Cummins 2015). more 3. Informational content of surnames (Guell et al. 2015). more 4. Kinship correlations (Collado et al. 2019). 5. Transition matrices (Bordieu et al. 2017, Zylberberg 2016). 10