Lifecycle Cost Modeling and the problem with electric rates Steve - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ZERO EMISSION BUS TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES Lifecycle Cost Modeling and the problem with electric rates Steve Miller Chair California Transit Association Zero Emission Bus Task Force CTA Annual Fall Conference – November 19, 2015

Critical Analysis Lifecycle Cost Model (LCCM) Infrastructure Rolling Stock Lifecycle Cost Fuel Maintenance

Lifecycle Cost Model Has never been an easy task More difficult for ZEB Particularly challenging for Battery Electric Important to the success of your project Critically important to the Advanced Clean Transit (ACT) discussion

Assumptions: Coaches Purchased FY2017: 67 40 Foot 10% PURCHASE REQUIREMENT ANALYSIS - 20 YEAR PROJECTION Coaches Purchased FY2025: 23 45 Foot Coaches Purchased FY2027: 32 45 Foot Including Cost of Capital and Inflation Coaches Purchased FY2029: 25 45 Foot Coaches Purchased FY2031: 67 40 Foot CURRENT PRICE MODEL Discount Rate: 3.0% Diesel Current Price - Inflation Only Inflation Rate: 2.0% Hydrogen Current Price- Inflation Only Diesel Hybrid FCB Bus Purchase Cost 40' 500,000 720,000 1,200,000 Bus Purchase Cost 45' 650,000 900,000 1,400,000 Fuel Cost 2.11 2.11 9.10 Fuel Station O&M 1.43 Compression Electrical Projected MPG/MPkg 4.00 5.00 6.40 Annual Mileage 40' Bus 43,000 43,000 43,000 Annual Mileage 45' Bus 28,000 28,000 28,000 Projected Maint Cost/Mile 0.84 0.71 1.33 Results: Projected Fuel Cost/Mile 0.53 0.42 1.65 Projected Total Cost/Mile 1.37 1.13 2.98 Annual Fuel Cost 40' Bus 22,682.50 18,146.00 70,748.44 Annual Fuel Cost 45' Bus 14,770.00 11,816.00 46,068.75 Annual Maint Cost 40' Bus 36,120.00 30,530.00 57,190.00 Annual Maint Cost 45' Bus 23,520.00 19,880.00 37,240.00 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 FY2030 FY2031 FY2032 FY2033 FY2034 FY2035 FY2036 FY2037 Diesel 40' 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 Diesel 45' 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Diesel Option (Base) Buses 33,500,000 17,516,308 25,355,084 20,608,929 44,202,539 Contract Spares 1,005,000 525,489 760,653 618,268 1,326,076 5307 Funding (27,604,000) (14,433,438) (20,892,589) (16,981,758) (36,422,892) Fuel 2,701,328 2,755,354 2,810,461 2,866,670 2,924,004 2,982,484 3,042,134 3,102,976 3,165,036 3,228,336 3,292,903 3,358,761 3,425,936 3,494,455 3,564,344 3,635,631 3,708,344 3,782,511 3,858,161 3,935,324 4,014,031 Total NPV 2017 Maintenance 4,301,640 4,387,673 4,475,426 4,564,935 4,656,233 4,749,358 4,844,345 4,941,232 5,040,057 5,140,858 5,243,675 5,348,549 5,455,520 5,564,630 5,675,923 5,789,441 5,905,230 6,023,334 6,143,801 6,266,677 6,392,011 209,643,401 156,258,835 13,903,968 7,143,027 7,285,887 7,431,605 7,580,237 7,731,842 7,886,479 8,044,208 11,813,452 8,369,194 13,759,726 8,707,310 13,126,895 9,059,085 18,345,990 9,425,072 9,613,574 9,805,845 10,001,962 10,202,001 10,406,041 Hybrid Option Diesel 40' 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel 45' 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 57 57 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hybrid 40' 0 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 Hybrid 45' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 23 55 55 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Buses 48,240,000 24,253,349 35,107,039 28,535,440 63,651,656 Contract Spares 1,447,200 727,600 1,053,211 856,063 1,909,550 5307 Funding (39,749,760) (19,984,760) (28,928,200) (23,513,203) (52,448,964) Fuel 2,701,328 2,445,330 2,494,236 2,544,121 2,595,003 2,646,903 2,699,842 2,753,838 2,808,915 2,783,896 2,839,574 2,778,832 2,834,409 2,795,564 2,851,475 2,908,505 2,966,675 3,026,009 3,086,529 3,148,259 3,211,224 Total NPV 2017 Maintenance 4,301,640 4,005,652 4,085,765 4,167,481 4,250,830 4,335,847 4,422,564 4,511,015 4,601,235 4,593,207 4,685,071 4,633,944 4,726,623 4,703,437 4,797,506 4,893,456 4,991,325 5,091,152 5,192,975 5,296,834 5,402,771 197,767,021 148,893,605 16,940,408 6,450,982 6,580,001 6,711,602 6,845,834 6,982,750 7,122,405 7,264,853 12,406,340 7,377,103 14,756,695 7,412,776 13,439,333 7,499,001 20,761,222 7,801,961 7,958,000 8,117,160 8,279,504 8,445,094 8,613,995 Annual Cost/Savings (3,036,440) 692,045 705,886 720,004 734,404 749,092 764,074 779,355 (592,888) 992,091 (996,970) 1,294,534 (312,437) 1,560,084 (2,415,233) 1,623,111 1,655,573 1,688,685 1,722,459 1,756,908 1,792,046 Cumulative Cost/Savings(NPV) (3,036,440) (2,364,552) (1,699,186) (1,040,281) (387,773) 258,400 898,300 1,531,987 1,063,955 1,824,311 1,082,471 1,477,248 1,798,533 2,860,874 1,264,121 2,305,934 3,337,633 4,359,315 5,371,078 6,373,017 7,365,230 Diesel 40' 67 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Diesel 45' 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 77 77 73 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 FCEB 40' 0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 10% ZEB Purchase Requirement FCEB 45' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Fuel Cell Option Buses 38,400,000 20,152,541 25,026,369 21,560,111 106,086,093 Contract Spares 1,152,000 604,576 750,791 646,803 3,182,583 5307 Funding (31,641,600) (16,605,694) (20,621,728) (17,765,531) (87,414,940) Fueling Station 10,000,000 6,341,209 Building Modification 1,500,000 Utility Upgrades 1,000,000 Fuel 2,701,328 3,098,545 3,160,516 3,223,726 3,288,201 3,353,965 3,421,044 3,489,465 3,559,254 3,742,654 3,817,507 4,049,521 4,130,512 4,253,610 4,338,682 4,425,456 4,513,965 4,604,245 4,696,329 4,790,256 4,886,061 Total NPV 2017 Maintenance 4,301,640 4,538,113 4,628,875 4,721,452 4,815,881 4,912,199 5,010,443 5,110,652 5,212,865 5,366,312 5,473,638 5,651,348 5,764,375 5,897,410 6,015,359 6,135,666 6,258,379 6,383,547 6,511,218 6,641,442 6,774,271 260,023,506 195,172,949 27,413,368 7,636,657 7,789,391 7,945,178 8,104,082 8,266,164 8,431,487 8,600,117 12,923,542 9,108,966 14,446,577 9,700,869 20,677,478 10,151,021 32,207,776 10,561,122 10,772,344 10,987,791 11,207,547 11,431,698 11,660,332 Annual Cost/Savings (13,509,400) (493,631) (503,503) (513,573) (523,845) (534,322) (545,008) (555,908) (1,110,091) (739,772) (686,852) (993,559) (7,550,583) (1,091,935) (13,861,786) (1,136,050) (1,158,771) (1,181,946) (1,205,585) (1,229,697) (1,254,291) Cumulative Cost/Savings(NPV) (13,509,400) (13,988,653) (14,463,253) (14,933,245) (15,398,675) (15,859,585) (16,316,021) (16,768,025) (17,644,341) (18,211,314) (18,722,396) (19,440,165) (24,735,991) (25,479,546) (34,643,820) (35,373,007) (36,095,114) (36,810,211) (37,518,365) (38,219,644) (38,914,114)

NREL Battery-Electric Evaluations

Electric Bus Fuel Cost? Demand Metered time of use (TOU) rates Currently under temporary tariff programs CPUC Resolutions Future Electric Bus Charging Rates Uncertain

Over 43% of Bill is Demand Charges

One Bus - Fast Charge 500kW Assumptions: Miles/Month 4000 kWh/mile 2.5 4,000 miles/month/bus Demand Charge 2.5 kWh/mile Max Peak 500 kW @ $19.04 $9,520.00 Max Part Peak 500 kW @ $4.42 $2,210.00 Max Demand 500 kW @ $14.38 $7,190.00 500 kW Fast Charging Total Demand Charges $18,920.00 Charging Equally Energy Charge Peak 3333 kWh @ $0.16233 $541.05 Distributed Throughout Part Peak 3333 kWh @ $0.10893 $363.06 Demand Period Off peak 3333 kWh @ $0.07397 $246.54 Total Electricity Charges $1,150.65 Total $20,070.65 Per Mile $5.02

500kWh Fast Charge Buses PG&E E19S Demand Metered TOU Service Charging Periods Equally Distributed – Peak, Partial Peak, and Off Peak $5 Electricity Cost per Mile $4 $3 2 nd Charger 3 rd Charger 4 th Charger $2 $1 1 6 7 12 13 18 19 Number of Buses

100kWh Slow Charge Buses PG&E E19S Demand Metered TOU Service Assuming One Charger for Each Bus $2 PEAK = $1.24/mile $1 PARTIAL PEAK = $.74/mile OFF PEAK = $.54/mile

Current Deal - SCE CPUC Resolution E-4514 SoCal Edison public agency electric bus customers Electric rate schedule TOU-GS-1 Summer Peak $.40 kWh ($1.00/mile) Winter Off Peak $.10 kWh ($.25/mile) Expires December 18, 2015 EV-6 Rate is being developed Final and interim rates/kWh Unknown

Current Deal – PG&E CPUC Resolution E-4628 PG&E public agency electric bus customers Electric rate schedule A-1 Option B Summer Peak $.248 kWh ($.62/mile) Winter Off Peak $.149 kWh ($.37/mile) Three year event triggered Application period expires September 30, 2016 Final and interim rates/kWh Unknown

The Problem CPUC resolutions were intended for early adoption only Investor-owned utilities need to recover costs High infrastructure costs need to be offset by low fuel costs Can demand costs be socialized?

Stakeholders California Energy Commission California Public Utilities Commission California Air Resources Board Public Transit Agencies Investor-Owned Utilities People Who Breathe Conversation needs to happen now!

caltransit.org/advocacy/key-issues/zero-emission-bus-regulation http:// www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/bus/bus.htm Steve Miller Director of Maintenance Golden Gate Transit smiller@goldengate.org