Legislative and Political Outlook JULY 26, 2018 Ryan Ullman Director of Government Relations and Political Affairs, IPAA I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
Retaking the House in 2018 Average result, since 1970, for Net gain needed by Republicans running in President’s Party in midterm Democrats to retake House districts carried when job approval is below 50% the House by Clinton in 2016 33 24 25 Seats lost Sources: Gallup, American Presidency Project I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
The House Battleground I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
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I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
Democrats Must Net Two Seats to Take Control I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
*Minnesota and Mississippi have two races apiece because of special elections to fill the seats of senators who resigned. Source: U.S. Senate I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
Republican Friendly Senate Map Jon Tester Heidi Heitkamp Joe Donnelly (IN) (MT) (ND) Five Democrats are defending seats in states the president won by at least 18 percentage points Joe Manchin (WV) Claire McCaskill (MO) Source: U.S. Senate I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
10 Democrats Running in States Trump Won Incumbent Trump Margin 2012 Senate Margin Notes Joe Manchin (W. Va.) 42% 24% State AG Patrick Morrisey won May 8 Republican primary Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) 36% 1% Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) entered race in February Jon Tester (Mont.) 20% 4% State Auditor Matt Rosendale won June 5 GOP Primary Joe Donnelly (Ind.) 19% 6% Former state Rep. Mike Braun won May 8 GOP primary Claire McCaskill (Mo.) 19% 16% State AG Josh Hawley (R) won statewide in 2016 Sherrod Brown (Ohio) 8% 6% Rep. Jim Renacci (R) won May 8 primary Gov. Rick Scott (R) has statewide name recognition and personal Bill Nelson (Fla.) 1% 13% wealth State Sen. Leah Vukmir, businessman Kevin Nicholson each have Tammy Baldwin (Wis.) <1% 6% GOP megadonor ally* Bob Casey (Pa.) <1% 9% Rep. Lou Barletta (R) won May 15 primary Businessmen John James and Sandy Pensler seek to deny Debbie Stabenow (Mich.) <1% 21% Stabenow fourth term *Vukmir is backed by billionaire Diane Hendricks, while Nicholson is backed by Richard Uihlein, the founder of the packaging company Uline Corp. Source: Official state election results I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
Reauthorization of Major Government Programs REAUTHORIZATIONS Higher Education Act (HEA) House Committee Full House Resolved • Authorizes many major education Differences Senate Committee Full Senate programs, usually for four years Dec. 1, 2017: H.R. 4508 passed House Education and the Workforce Committee National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) House Committee Full House Resolved • Defines the next year’s military strategy and funding Differences Senate Committee Full Senate levels, and usually includes reforms to other May 24, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed House (351-66) government entities June 18, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed Senate with amendment (85-10) Farm Bill House Committee Full House • Authorizes through 2023 most agricultural support and Resolved Differences Senate Committee Full Senate food assistance programs, including SNAP • Also includes some rural infrastructure spending June 21, 2018: H.R. 2 passed House (213-211) Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) House Committee Full House • Approves five years of funding for the FAA in addition Resolved Differences to other policy reforms including drones and funding Senate Committee Full Senate for some infrastructure projects April 27, 2018: H.R. 4 passed House (393-13) Sources: National Journal Research, 2018. I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
The Trump Administration has about Half of Key Staff in Place, with some Top-Level Officials Still Missing Status of Key Positions Requiring Senate KEY SUB-CABINET POSITIONS Confirmation Vacant Cabinet Secretaries: AS OF JUNE 28, 2018 • Veterans Affairs 186 − Robert Wilkie 332 Departments without a Deputy Secretary: • Commerce (Karen Dunn Kelley) 3 • Veterans Affairs (no nominee) 152 • Treasury (Justin George Muzinich nominated) ■ No nominee ■ Awaiting nomination ■ Awaiting confirmation ■ Confirmed Source: “Tracking how many key positions Trump has filled so far,” Washington Post I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
Supreme Court Nominee Brett Kavanaugh Will Need 51 Senate Votes to be Confirmed Senate confirmation process after the “nuclear option” invoked on Supreme Court nominations SUPREME COURT President refers Senate Judiciary Majority vote in the nominee to the Senate Committee holds a committee advances confirmation hearing the nomination 51 votes to confirm 51 votes to pass Supreme Court cloture and end the nominee justice sworn in Senate debate Sources: Senate.gov Daniel Tublen, June 28, 2018 I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
What IPAA is Fighting ORGANIZATION REVENUE • National Resources Defense Council $184 Million in FY17 Source: NRDC Annual Report • Sierra Club Foundation $72 Million in FY17 TOTAL $623 MILLION TOTAL $623 MILLION Source: Sierra Club Foundation Annual Report • Sierra Club $116 Million in FY16 Source: Sierra Club Form 990 Tax Filing • Environmental Defense Fund $158 Million in FY17 Source: EDF Annual Report • National Wildlife Federation $93 Million in FY17 Source: NWF Annual Report I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G
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