Climate change and prospects for Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor Pacífico Business School Universidad del Pacífico Lima, July 13, 2018
Structure of the presentation • The Baconian program: • Unfolding, deployment and triumph • The twilight of Bacons age: • Consequences and impact • Latin America’s favorable situation • Latin American challenges • Prospects for livelihoods and employment
Twilight of Bacon’s Age • Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626): key figure • Baconian program: – Method: modern science – Purpose: improving the human condition – Direction: indefinite and linear progress – Focus: “Man” – Institutions: research establishments and public support • Unfolding (1750-1900); deployment (1900-1975); triumph (1975-2010); twilight (2010-?) • Twilight of Bacon’s age: – Transitions towards a new age with a new program – But, without rejecting or discarding cumulative advance • Central role of collective action and public policies
Consequences of the Baconian program • The success of Bacon’s program, together with the global expansion of capitalism, has radically altered the human condition during the last four centuries: • Population • Production • Energy • Growth expectations • Climate change • Ecological footprint • Inequality • Pyrrhic victory? Collapse?
Consequences of the program: population and production GDP Year Population GDP per cápita Growth* Billion US $** Growth* US $** Million Growth* 0 230.8 102.5 444 1000 268.3 0.02 116.8 0.01 435 -0.00 1820 1,041.1 0.17 694.4 0.22 667 0.05 1998 5,908.0 0.98 33,726 2.21 5,709 1.21 *Compound annual rate of growth ** 1990 International US dollars Source: Maddison, 2005
Consequences of the program: population Source :World Bank
Consequences of the program: energy Murphy, D. J., & Hall, C. S. (2011). Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth. Annals Of The New York Academy Of Sciences, 1219(1), 52-72. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05940.x
Consequences of the program: growth Source: Bradbrook, G. (2012). Depletion. Street School economics (blog)
Consequences of the program: climate change
Consequences of the program: climate change
Consequences of the program: ecological footprint (Size of countries proportional to their ecological footprint) Source: Dorling, Danny, Mark E. J. Newman, Graham Allsopp, Anna Barford, Ben Wheeler, John Pritchard and David Dorling. 2006. Ecological Footprint. Courtesy of Universities of Sheffield and Michigan. In “4th Iteration (2008): Science Maps for Economic Decision - Makers,” Places & Spaces: Mapping Science, edited by Katy Börner and Elisha F. Hardy. http://scimaps.org.
Consequences of the program: inequality Inequality between people-1 (billions and billionaires) Fuente: Piketty, T. 2013. Le capital au 21e . http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/fr/capital21c
Consequences of the program: inequality Inequality between people-2 Source: Isabel Ortiz, Matthew Cummins. UNICEF Working Paper: Global Inequality: Beyong the Bottom Billion – Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries. June 15, 2011, http://www.equityforchildren.org/unicef-working-paper-global-inequality-beyong-the-bottom-billion-review-of- income-distribution-in-141-countries/
Consequences of the program: inequality Inequalities in the Human Development Index (2013) Source: World map indicating the Human Development Index (based on 2013 data, published on July 24, 2014)
Impacts of the program: collapse? Source: McKenzie, D. 2012. Boom and Doom: revisiting prophecies of collapse. New Scientist 2846.
Impacts of the program: collapse? • “The probability that civilization as we know it survives till the end of the twenty-first century is fifty- fifty” Sir Martin Rees • “Humanity is on an unsustainable course ... if it is not changed, it will lead to catastrophes of impressive consequences” James Martin • “We are not going to recover the planet we had ... We have to survive the dangers we can no longer avoid” Bill McKibben
Impacts of the program: collapse? • “This is the first moment in the history of our planet in which any species, because of its own voluntary actions, has become a danger to itself” Bill Joy • “The destructive monster of technology -based capitalism will not be stopped” Edward O. Wilson • “Our current civilization has become dysfunctional ... Unless unforeseen changes take place, we shall disappear, as has happened with many other species in the long history of life” Amílcar Herrera
Impacts of the program: collapse? Combination of: • Consequences of the triumph of Bacon’s program • Economic systems that privilege consumption and growth • Capitalism and its varieties • Real socialism Is unsustainable (Daly’s “Impossibility theorem”) • Agenda for the future: – Rethink and transcend the Baconian program – Explore new conceptions of “progress” and “development” – Design and implement new approaches to public policies (State, market, civil society, academia) • We are going to do this from, and for, Latin America
Latin America’s favorable situation • Latin America has privileged material conditions to face the twilight of Bacon’s age – Population of adequate size and composition: • Population density (urbanization) • Dependency rate and demographic dividend • Life expectancy and income – Food production: • Biological diversity • Cultivable land • Fishing potential – Energy supply (multiple sources) – Water availability (large reserves)
Latin America: Population Population structure (density and growth)
Latin America: Population (Comparative projected population growth) Source: United Nations Population Division. World Population 2012. New York, 2013.
Latin America: Population Population structure (dependency ratio)
Latin America: health and income Life expectancy at birth and income per capita (2010) Source: Lindgren, Mattias. 2010. Gapminder World Map. Courtesy of Gapminder Foundation. In “8th Iteration (2012): Science Map s f or Kids,” Places & Spaces: Mapping Science, edited by Katy Börner and Michael J. Stamper. http://scimaps.org
Latin America: biodiversity
Latin America: cultivable land per capita
Latin America: food production per capita
América Latina: fisheries catch Average participation, percentages 2005 – 09 11 % 25 % 14 16 % % 7% Source: Review of the state of world marine fishery resources, FAO Fisheries and aquaculture technical paper 569, 2011
Latin America: fisheries potential Area 31 ( Atlantic, Western Central) Area 34 (Atlantic, Eastern Central) Area 47 (Atlantic, Southeast) Area 41 (Atlantic, Southwest) Area 37 (Mediterranean and Black Sea) Area 27 (Atlantic, Northeast) Area 51 ( Indian Ocean, Western) Area 87 (Pacific, Southeast) Area 57 (Indian Ocean, Eastern) Area 21 (Atlantic, Northwest) Area 61 (Pacific, Northwest) … Area 71 (Pacific, Western Central) Area 81 (Pacific, Southwest) Area 67 (Pacific, Northeast) Area 77 (Pacific, Eastern Central) Source Review of the state of world marine fishery resources, FAO Fisheries and aquaculture technical paper 569, 2011
Latin America: energy consumption Energy consumption per capita, 2010
Latin America: oil consumption
Latin America: water availability
Latin America: water consumption Source: World Bank (WDI 2010), Sensor Networks, http://www.libelium.com/libelium-images/agua_valencia/graficas_consumo_grande.jpg
Latin America: aquifers recharge
Latin America: favorable situation • Diversity of diversities (adaptation capacity, resilience): – Mineral resources, forest resources, ecosystems – Cultural and ethnic diversity ..., but with similar history and language • Social learning processes: rejection of authoritarianism, insecurity and violence (slow but steady?) • Infrastructure flexibility (limited path dependency) • Latin America is in a good position to meet the challenges of the 21 st century (beginning of post- Baconian age)
Latin America: challenges To lead 21 st century transformations, Latin America has to • overcome four main challenges: 1. Become conscious of the epochal changes under way and of the possibilities of the region: understand and accept new situation, explore development options 2. Build and consolidate science, technology and innovation capabilities: advance towards the knowledge society 3. Improve governance and the performance of political leaders: build efficient and effective democracies 4. Design and implement development strategies and policies commensurate with the challenges: ensure coherence, efficiency, flexibility, learning and adaptation
Prospects for livelihoods and employment in the transition to the post-Baconian age: a Latin American viewpoint
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