LAND USE MODEL UPDATE PLAC Meeting #3 October 9, 2014 2 Agenda - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 LAND USE MODEL UPDATE PLAC Meeting #3 October 9, 2014

2 Agenda • Study Design and Methodology • Current model limitations and enhancements • Placetypes • Suitability • Control totals • Allocation Results

3 Study Design • Limitations • Enhancements • Physical Structure • Revised Base Structure • Redevelopment • Redevelopment Potential • Placetypes • Placetypes • Enhance attributes • Indicators • Suitability Factors • Suitability • Reviewed and modified existing factors

4 Grid based polygons • ¼ mile grid and 1 mile grids • Tied TAZs • 34,200 records Coded into Cells: • Constrained • Undeveloped • Developed • Redevelopable

5 Redevelopment • Typically doesn’t include residential • Land values exceed the value of the buildings: • High: Building value is less than 25 percent of land value • Medium: Building value is between 25 and 75 percent of land value • Low: Building value is between 75 and 100 percent of land value

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7 Inner Loop

8 Northeast Shelby County

9 DeSoto County

10 Placetypes • 18 Different Placetypes • Custom Placetype Attributes: • Site efficiency • Residential density • Floor-area ratio (FAR) • Percent residential/non- residential • Employment types • Development size • Density • Land use mix • Visual qualities • Custom indicators

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12 Suitability • Measures the attractiveness of an area for accommodating growth • Score between 0 – 100 is used to rank an area from least- to most-suitable for development SCORE higher lower

13 Suitability Factors Residential Non-Residential Industrial Suitability Factor Impact Weight Impact Weight Impact Weight + 6.0 + 6.0 + 6.0 Cost of Land + 9.0 + 9.0 + 9.0 Proximity to Water and Sewer Services - 2.0 + 5.0 + 7.5 Proximity to Airport Service + 7.5 + 6.5 + 6.0 Regional Accessibility to Employment and Services - 1.0 + 3.0 + 8.0 Proximity to Intermodal Facilities + 5.5 + 8.0 + 8.0 Proximity to Major Roads/Interchanges + 7.0 + 7.0 + 4.0 Proximity to Retail/Commercial Centers + 8.0 + 4.0 + 1.0 Proximity to Schools - 9.0 - 9.0 - 9.0 Floodplains + 6.5 + 6.5 + 6.5 Proximity to Transit and Active Transportation Modes Proximity to Civic, Recreational and Mid-South Greenprint + 7.0 + 6.0 + 2.0 Assets + 5.5 + 5.5 + 5.5 Redevelopment Potential

14 Example of Suitability Scores (Major Roads)

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18 Socioeconomic/Land Use Data at the Zone Level Population Density • Households/population • Households cross-classified by number of persons, number of workers, number of vehicles, income level • Employment • Categorized by industry type, based on NAICS3 codes Worker Density ZONE LEVEL DATA ARE USED FOR BASE YEAR (2010) AND FORECAST YEARS

19 How Socioeconomic/Land Use Data Will Be Used in the Model • How much people travel • Household end – Number of trips per household by purpose • Non-home end – Number of trips based on employment by type, households • Other model components • Mode choice – Measures of development density affect travel choices • Truck travel: – Number of truck trips based on employment by type • Intermediate stops on commute: – Locations of stops based on activity at stop locations

20 2010 Household Density by TAZ (HH/Sq Mi)

21 2010 Employment Density by TAZ (Emp/Sq Mi)

22 Allocation • Growth determined from control totals for population/employment • Distribute future growth based on placetypes and suitability analysis • Allocation constrained at the county level

23 Control Totals Population (Households) Change County 2010 2040 (2010 – 2040) Crittenden 19,026 19,066 40 DeSoto 57,734 104,577 46,843 Fayette 14,505 19,988 5,483 Marshall 13,369 15,989 2,620 Shelby 350,973 394,120 43,147 Tate 10,035 14,812 4,777 Tipton 21,629 31,608 9,979 Tunica 3,927 6,259 2,332 Total 491,198 606,419 115,221 Total Employment Change County 2010 2040 (2010 – 2040) Crittenden 19,909 34,508 14,599 DeSoto 55,067 82,291 27,224 Fayette 8,757 19,708 10,951 Marshall 7,711 13,365 5,654 Shelby 516,180 771,368 255,188 Tate 6,744 11,689 4,945 Tipton 12,181 16,223 4,042 Tunica 14,359 24,888 10,529 Total 640,908 974,040 333,132

24 HOUSEHOLD ALLOCATION 2010 to 2040

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26 2010 Household Density by TAZ (HH/Sq Mi)

27 2040 Household Density by TAZ (HH/Sq Mi)

28 EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION 2010 to 2040

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30 2010 Employment Density by TAZ (Emp/Sq Mi)

31 2040 Employment Density by TAZ (Emp/Sq Mi)

32 Next Steps • Need Comments on Placetypes, Suitability, and Allocations by Friday October 17, 2014 • Take Comments and Revise Model • Submit final allocation result for approval • ETC – 11/6/2014 • TPB – 11/20/2014

33 QUESTIONS? Thanks for your Input!