Kick-off Meeting June 25, 2020 1 Meeting Logistics Summary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Kick-off Meeting June 25, 2020 1

Meeting Logistics Summary - Roll Call - Members will unmute and acknowledge their attendance when their name is called. - ARC Delegates - Use the WebEx “raise hand” feature to request to speak or ask questions. - Wait to be recognized before speaking to ensure clear communication and remain muted when not speaking. - Livestream Attendees - Electronic public comment forms are available at cap-az.com/ARC for anyone wishing to submit a comment or question during the meeting. - All submissions will be addressed during the Call to the Public at the end of the meeting, unless relevant to a specific topic in the presentation. - ARC Information - Meeting materials have been posted on the ADWR and CAP ARC pages: cap-az.com/ARC or new.azwater.gov/ARC. 2 June 24, 2020

Meeting Agenda - Welcome and Introductions - Colorado River Update - 2020 Implementation of DCP - Status of BOR’s “7.D Review” - Review of DCP Steering Committee Delegate Listening Sessions - Arizona Reconsultation Committee Process Proposal - Next Steps - Call to the Public 3

Colorado River Basin System Status Update Arizona Reconsultation Committee Meeting June 25, 2020

Colorado River Basin Storage as of June 22, 2020 Storage Elevation Reservoir Percent Full (feet) (maf) Lake Powell 53% 12.8 3,611 Lake Mead 41% 10.7 1,088 Total System Storage* 53% 31.4 NA Total system storage was 31.0 maf, or 52% of capacity, this time last year

Upper Colorado River Basin Water Year 2020 Snowpack and Inflow into Lake Powell Water Year 2020 WY 2020 snowpack peaked at 107% of median on April 1st Forecasted Inflow (as of June 16, 2020) 6.76 maf 62% of average

24-Month Study – Lake Mead Projections Most Probable End of CY 2020 Most Probable End of CY 2021 Projection: Projection: 1,085.64 feet (40% full) 1,085.35 feet (40% full) Min/Max Range: 1,082.97 to 1,087.32 feet Min/Max Range: 1,074.49 to 1,109.29 feet

Lower Basin – Lake Mead Percent of Traces with Event or System Condition Results from April 2020 MTOM/CRSS (values in percent) Notes: 1 Modeled operations include the 2007 Interim Guidelines, Upper Basin Drought Response Operations, Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, and Minute 323, including the Binational Water Scarcity Contingency Plan. 2 Reservoir initial conditions on December 31, 2020 were simulated using the April 2020 MTOM based on the CRRFC unregulated inflow forecast ensemble dated April 3, 2020. 3 Each of the 35 initial conditions from MTOM were coupled with 113 hydrologic inflow sequences from the Full Hydrology that resamples the observed natural flow record from 1906-2018 for a total of 3955 traces analyzed and with 31 hydrologic inflow sequences from the Stress Test Hydrology that resamples the observed natural flow record from 1988-2018 for a total of 1,085 traces analyzed. 4 Percentages shown in this table may not be representative of the full range of future possibilities that could occur with different modeling assumptions. 5 Percentages shown may not sum to 100% due to rounding to the nearest percent. 6 The chance of a Lower Basin Shortage in 2021 is negligible.

2020 Tier Zero Operations - Arizona DCP Contributions = 192 kaf from CAWCD - Nevada DCP Contributions = 8 kaf from SNWA - Mexico BWSCP Contributions = 41 kaf* - Reclamation System Conservation = 10 kaf - Total DCP Contributions = 251 kaf - Additional contributions and reductions = 443 kaf - Arizona Offset Components (ICS+System Conservation) = 133 kaf - Arizona additional ICS ~ 10 kaf - California ICS ~ 200 kaf - Nevada ICS ~ 65 kaf - Mexico Water Reserve (similar to ICS) ~ 35 kaf *accounted as additional Mexico Water Reserve contribution in 2020 9

2019-20 Arizona DCP Implementation 10

CAWCD 2020 Tier Zero Operations Estimated Colorado 1,800,000 River (1.67 MAF) Actual CAP Deliveries DCP Reductions 1,600,000 (1.359 MAF) ( ‐ 192 KAF) CAP System Losses 1,400,000 Ag Pool ( ‐ 75 KAF) CAP Delivery (249 KAF) Acre ‐ feet (AF) Supply 1,200,000 Lake Pleasant (1.453 MAF) (50 KAF) 1,000,000 Long Term Contract Long ‐ Term ICS Creation 800,000 Contracts ( ‐ 83 KAF) (1.203 MAF) Sys.Cons. ( ‐ 10 KAF) 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 CAP Delivery Supply Projected CAP Deliveries 11

Projected 2021 Tier Zero Operations - Arizona DCP Contributions = 192 kaf from CAWCD - Nevada DCP Contributions = 8 kaf from SNWA - Mexico BWSCP Contributions = 41 kaf - Reclamation System Conservation = tbd kaf - Total DCP Contributions more than 241 kaf - Arizona’s additional contributions and reductions = 100 kaf - Arizona Offset Components (System Conservation) = 50 kaf - Arizona additional ICS ~ 50 kaf (fill remaining AZ ICS capacity) 12

‘20-’21 DCP Implementation Summary 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 No CAP Wet Water Mitigation 105 KAF ‐ Tier 1 Ag Groundwater Infrastructure Program Pool 70 KAF ‐ Tiers 2a/2b 70 KAF / Yr NO 100% Mitigation NIA 75%* ‐ Tiers 1/2a Pool 2026 or Tiers 1/2a/2b 50%* ‐ Tier 2b Tier 3 - Arizona Tier Zero Contributions = 192 kaf/yr from CAWCD - Offset Contributions being made - Mitigation Resources available 13

Colorado River Basin Review of the 2007 Interim Guidelines (7.D. Review) Arizona Reconsultation Committee Meeting June 25, 2020

Review of the 2007 Interim Guidelines (7.D. Review) • Section XI.G.7.D. of the 2007 Interim Guidelines Record of Decision requires a review of the effectiveness to start by no later than December 31, 2020. • Secretary Bernhardt directed Reclamation to initiate this review earlier than required. • Goals of the Review • Evaluate the effectiveness of the 2007 Interim Guidelines • Document our operational experience • Retrospective review of past operations and actions under the 2007 Interim Guidelines, not a consideration of future activities. 3

Review of the 2007 Interim Guidelines (7.D. Review) • Reclamation hosted webinars to present the proposed scope and approach to the Review in late March. • Several comments regarding the scope and approach were received from multiple entities: Basin States and water districts, Tribes, environmental and conservation organizations, Federal agencies, academic groups. • Comments are available at the 7.D. Review website: https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html#IGReview 3

7.D. Review: Schedule Comments due by May 1 on Report scope and approach (extended) Comments due by September 1 on Preliminary Draft Report

BREAK 18

LBDCP Steering Committee (Photo courtesy of Arizona Forward) 19 June 24, 2020

DCP Legislation – Signed January 31, 2019 20 June 24, 2020

Steering Committee Awards and Acknowledgements (Photo courtesy of Arizona Forward) 21 June 24, 2020

But…..MORE TO DO 22 June 24, 2020

Listening Session Summary - 32 individual meetings with DCP Delegates (Oct ‘19 – Mar ‘20) - High-level themes observed include: - An intra-Arizona process is needed to prepare for the new Guidelines - ADWR and CAWCD need to continue working collaboratively - Support for a process mirroring the Arizona LBDCP Steering Committee, including comparable representation - Need multiple levels to participate in the Arizona process - Many good ideas that will be considered in the development of the initial draft guiding principles - A variety of key issues were raised, and some may need to be addressed in the intra-Arizona process to implement new rules - Support for work groups, ad-hoc discussions, and confidential discussions to augment the Arizona process - Technical and legal/policy/strategic work is needed to develop and inform Arizona’s perspectives 23

Reconsultation Process: 3 Levels Anticipate that the Reconsultation process will operate at multiple levels: 1. Reclamation-led level: similar to the 2007 Guidelines NEPA process (multiple tracks and engagement) 2. Basin States level: with the goal to develop a Basin States alternative 3. Arizona level: similar to the Arizona LBDCP Steering Committee process to: - Frame Arizona’s position in the Basin States and Reclamation processes - Build support for and develop a framework to implement the new operating rules within Arizona - Facilitate broad representation including Arizona tribes and NGOs 24 June 24, 2020

Arizona’s Estimate of Reconsultation Processes and Timeline 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 BOR 7.D BOR Reconsultation Process* ROD & Federal Review (multiple levels and engagement) Legislation** Basin States Process - preferred alternative/consensus agreement Arizona Reconsultation Committee Process (intra-Arizona consensus) Continued Engagement *Exact timing of BOR Reconsultation Process yet to be determined ** Federal legislation if necessary 25

Arizona Reconsultation Process Basin States BOR Process Process Basin States* ROD & Federal Legislation*** Arizona Strategy Team** AZ Technical AZ Technical Technical Work Work Groups Work Groups Groups Arizona Reconsultation Committee (ARC): Arizona Colorado River stakeholders including: cities, tribes, agriculture, CAP users, industry, development, NGOs, and elected officials 26 *By invitation to support the co-Chairs June 24, 2020 **Requires confidentiality agreement for legal advice and negotiating strategies ***Federal legislation if necessary