Key Issues in Agricultural Science Professor John Beddington Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science 5 January 2010 5 January 2010 The Frank Parkinson Lecture Oxford Farming Conference
Post Copenhagen? Post Copenhagen? The Copenhagen Accord provided a commitment to hold the increase in global temperatures below 2 0 C, but key questions remain: y q • What is the role of farming practices in mitigation and practices in mitigation and adaptation? • How can science and engineering H i d i i support the farming industry? • What are the key research needs to fill the technology gaps?
Climate change is only part of a Climate change is only part of a Perfect Storm Perfect Storm of global events Perfect Storm Perfect Storm of global events of global events of global events Increased demand 45% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Energy 1. Increasing population 2. Increasing levels of 2 I i l l f Climate urbanisation Change 3. The rightful goal to g g Food Water alleviate poverty Increased demand Increased demand 4. Climate Change 50% by 2030 30% by 2030 (FAO) (IFPRI)
Key questions Key questions 1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably healthily and equitably, healthily and Increased demand sustainably? 45% by 2030 (IEA) 2. Can we cope with the future Energy Energy demands on water? 3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing energy to supply the growing Climate population coming out of Change poverty? 4 4. Can we do this whilst Can we do this whilst Food Water mitigating and adapting to Increased demand Increased demand climate change? 50% by 2030 30% by 2030 5. How does engineering and (FAO) (IFPRI) science help in preventing and adapting to this perfect storm scenario?
Impacts of global temperature Impacts of global temperature rise rise rise rise PROBLEMATIC • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress • Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes • Increased coastal flooding and storms • Increased coastal flooding and storms • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw DISASTROUS • A 16 ° C increase in the Arctic • A 16 C increase in the Arctic • 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress • Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe • Substantial global impact on major crops • Long-term prospect of sea level rise
Europe + 2 ° C Europe + 2 2 P 2. Production of d ti f some cereal crops may increase ( green ring ) ring ) 3. Changes in rainfall patterns ( blue ring ) 5. Drought events one and a half times as frequent ( red ring ) as frequent ( red ring ) 8. Hottest days across Europe could be as much as 6 ° C 6 ° C b h warmer ( pink ring ) Source: Met Office
Europe + 4 ° C Europe + 4 1. High forest-fire danger (grey ring) danger (grey ring) 5. 70% reduction in river and stream flow (blue t fl (bl ring) 6. Sea-level rises and storm surges (green ring) 11 Drought in 11. Drought in Mediterranean basin (red ring) 18. Hottest days of the year across Europe up to 8 ° C warmer ( pink ring) ( i k i ) Source: Met Office
Climate change effects on the Climate change effects on the UK UK UK UK Changes in mean precipitation to 2080, 50% probability estimate Winter Winter S Summer Source: UKCP09
Increased demand for food Increased demand for food World food requirements 4500.00 Milk and dairy (excl butter) 4000.00 Meat (carcass weight) Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products 3500.00 d Pulses o f fo 3000.00 Sugar s o es R Roots and tubers t d t b 2500.00 n n Cereals, food o 2000.00 T n illio 1500.00 i M 1000.00 500.00 0.00 1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2030 2050 World food production must rise by 50 % by 2030 to b 50 % b 2030 t W ld f d d ti t i meet increasing demand ( Source : UN 2008) Source: FAO / UN
The problem of land The problem of land availability availability availability availability More people means less cultivated land per person for food, feed, (agro)- fuel and fibre production fuel and fibre production 2030 – 8.3 bn people 2030 – even less 2030 – even less farmland per person
Demand for biofuels: potential Demand for biofuels: potential competition with food? competition with food? competition with food? competition with food? Ethanol production mostly from grain feedstocks except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017
The challenge for agriculture The challenge for agriculture Need: 50% more production on 50% more production on less land , with less water , using less energy fertiliser using less energy , fertiliser and pesticide … …by 2030 b 2030 … whilst not increasing GHG emissions
Challenges and Challenges and opportunities opportunities
The Challenge: The Challenge: Increasing fresh water use Increasing fresh water use Increasing fresh water use Increasing fresh water use Source: United Nations Environment Programme 2008
The Challenge: The Challenge: Diseases in crops and livestock Diseases in crops and livestock Diseases in crops and livestock Diseases in crops and livestock Major livestock diseases: Current losses due to pests and diseases worldwide • Avian Influenza Maize Rice Potatoes Wheat • BSE 0 • FMD -5 oss of crop • Bluetongue -10 -15 • Bovine TB -20 ercentage lo • Rabies -25 • Scrapie -30 Pe -35 -35 -40 -45 (Oerke, 2006)
The Challenge: The Challenge: Soil management Soil management Soil management Soil management Carbon Dioxide equivalents stored in Areas potentially at risk from UK forests and soils UK f t d il soil erosion il i Source: Defra Source: Defra Source: Boardman, J. and Evans, R. (2004). Soil Erosion in Europe.
Opportunities for science Opportunities for science and engineering and engineering and engineering and engineering • Improved crop varieties to increase yields through drought tolerance and i ld th h d ht t l d pest resistance • Smarter and reduced use of fertilisers and pesticides • Non-chemical approaches to crop Plants grow in an oasis next to the protection in the field and to store crops desert in Dunhuang, Gansu province safely Techniques and technologies • Novel methods to conserve and from many disciplines, ranging manage soil g from biotechnology (including plant genomics and genetic • Royal Society Report, Reaping the modification) and engineering ) g g Benefits examines the contribution of to nanotechnology will be biological sciences to food crop needed production
The Challenge: Regulation on The Challenge: Regulation on biotechnology and GM biotechnology and GM biotechnology and GM biotechnology and GM Global area of biotech crops 1996-2008 (million hectares) 140 120 100 ctares 80 illion) 60 60 Hec (m 40 20 20 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year 25 countries that have adopted biotech crops Source: ISAAA, 2008
Regulation should be proportionate Regulation should be proportionate and evidence based and evidence based and evidence based and evidence based “All substances are poisons there All substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison from a remedy.” Paracelsus, 1493-1531 , Risk = Hazard x Exposure
UK Agricultural l Research lt i UK A
Food research is complex Food research is complex and multi and multi-disciplinary and multi and multi-disciplinary disciplinary disciplinary Source: Food 2030, Defra, Jan 2010
UK food research needs UK food research needs a co a co-ordinated strategy a co a co ordinated strategy ordinated strategy ordinated strategy Areas of Focus: Areas of Focus: • Presenting a coherent approach • Promoting co-ordination and collaboration • Addressing cross-cutting issues (e g skills translation) (e.g. skills, translation)
UK food research UK food research Government food research spend 2008 / 09 UK is recognised internationally for its research on: • Agriculture • Animal health and welfare • Aquaculture and fisheries • Climate change g • Economic and social modelling • Food safety Food safety • International development Estimated total spend = £415m (from £408m in FY07/08) (from £408m in FY07/08) Source: UK Government Food Research and Innovation Strategy, Jan 2010
Research Skills Research Skills Perceived supply gaps in niche skills base: • Crop production - agronomy, forage crops, plant physiology, pathology and general botany, plant-soil interactions, weed science, entomology/pest biology, d i t l / t bi l chemicals and pesticides, agricultural engineering, post-harvest storage, soil science and conservation agricultural science and conservation, agricultural economics ; • Livestock production - ruminant and veterinary microbiologists/pathologists/ veterinary microbiologists/pathologists/ parasitologists, animal genetics, animal physiology and nutrition; • Fish production – freshwater Fish production freshwater taxonomists/ecologists; and • Environmental science – soil and water management, wildlife conservation. a age e , d e co se a o Source: Food Research Partnership Working Group
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