Post Gu 2010 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia August 18th 2010 Information for Better Livelihoods Juba Regions Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Gu 2010 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Gu ‘10 Field Coverage in Juba regions: - Normal access in Buale, Sakow, eastern part of Jilib districts of M.Juba and Afmadow, Jammame and parts of Kismayo districts in L. Juba; - Key informants in western part of Jilib district of M. Juba and Badhade and parts of Kismayo districts in L. Juba
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, y p cattle, sheep/goat • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agropastoralists) Southern Agropastoral are more pastoral in Afmadow, L. Juba, than those in the M. Juba and Jammame (L.Juba) who are more agriculturalist – main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases Lower Juba Agropastoral are more pastoral – main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases. Riverine (M. and L. Juba) • Main source of income of poor : Crop sales, wage labour, self-employment (collection of bush products) • Main sources of food of poor: Own production and market purchase
Climate Performance of the Gu 2010 Rainfall • Start of Season: started early April 2010, but good unseasonal rains were received in March 2010 • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: good in terms of coverage and intensity; long dry spell all in 1 st and 3 rd dekad of May. Light shower of rains continued to be received in June – July 2010. • Normal rains: All parts of the regions except localized areas • Poor rains: parts of Salagle, Nusduniay(Sakow), and Jira plain of Afmadow • Floods: Occurred in May in Juba riverine LZ, causing damage to the standing crops
Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover Kismayo Agropastoral Standardized difference RFE from LTA CNDVI 2.5 70% range 2.0 1.5 1.0 Z-scores 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr gu deyr 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years
Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation : • High tension among conflicting sides in the region • Increased displacements from main towns to rural areas and to Kenya refugee camps Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Medium Impact • Short-term restrictions on trade movement with possible long term effects. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture Gu 2010 Cereal Production Estimates Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu 2010 as % of Gu 2010 as % of 5 Gu 2010 as % of Districts Total Cereal Gu PWA year average Gu 2009 (1995-2009) (2005-2009) Maize Sorghum 346 80 426 73% 116% 287% Afmadow 500 165 665 - 227% 404% Hagar 240 0 240 - 51% 108% Badhaadhe 2,310 0 2,310 - 65% 177% Jamaame 1,300 0 1,300 - 199% 513% Kismaayo Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2010 4,696 245 4,941 837% 93% 246% Total Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu 2010 as % of Gu 2010 as % of 5 Gu 2010 as % of Districts Total Cereal Gu PWA year average Gu 2009 (1995-2009) (2005-2009) Maize Sorghum 2,000 440 2,440 67% 135% 214% Bu'aale 3,480 0 3,480 84% 86% 134% Jilib 0 6,250 6,250 50% 189% 230% Saakow/Salagle Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2010 5,480 6,690 12,170 60% 133% 188% Total
Agriculture Cereal Production Estimates Plus Off-season Maize Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu 2010 as % of Gu 2010 as % of Gu 2010 as % of Districts Total Cereal Gu PWA 5-year average Gu 2009 (1995-2009) (2005-2009) Maize Sorghum Afmadow 346 80 426 73% 116% 287% 500 165 665 6650% 227% 891% Hagar 240 0 240 - 51% 108% Badhaadhe Jamaame 3,975 0 3,975 33% 92% 107% Kismaayo 1,300 0 1,300 269% 166% 200% Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2010 6,361 245 6,606 50% 106% 137% Total Juba Dhexe (Middle) Off-Season Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu 2010 as % of Gu 2010 as % of Gu 2010 as % of Districts Total Cereal Gu PWA 5 year average Gu 2009 Maize Sorghum (1995-2009) (2005-2009) 3,800 440 4,240 105% 219% 279% Bu'aale 5,880 0 5,880 118% 142% 205% Jilib Sakow 2,400 6,250 8,650 67% 256% 292% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2010 12,080 6,690 18,770 86% 198% 256% Total
Agriculture Gu 2010 Cereal Production Plus Off season in Middle Juba Regional Trend in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2010) - M. Juba 25,000 Gu Cereal Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg Production 20,000 (Middle Juba) 15,000 MT 10,000 5,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Gu plus Off-Season Cereal Production (1995-2009) - M. Juba 14,000 Maize Sorghum PWA Series4 12,000 10,000 8,000 Regional Trend in Gu MT 6,000 Cereal Production Plus 4,000 Off-season (Middle 2,000 Juba) 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
Agriculture Gu 2010 Cereal Production Plus Off season in Lower Juba Gu Cereal Production (1995-2010) – L. Juba 120,000 Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg 100,000 Regional Trend in 80,000 Gu Cereal Production MT (Lower Juba) 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Gu plus Off-Season Cereal Production (1995-2009) - L. Juba 120,000 Maize Sorghum PWA 100,000 80,000 MT 60,000 Regional Trend in Gu 40,000 Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Lower 20,000 Juba) 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
Agriculture Off-Season Crop Estimates Off Season: Sep-Oct. 2010 Regions Maize (MT) Sesame (MT) Cowpea (MT) 6,600 660 140 Middle Juba Lower Juba 1,700 1,240 660 Total 8,300 1,900 800
Agriculture Gu 2010 Assessment Photos 1. Flooded Crop Maize Field. Farbito, 1 Buale, M. Juba, July ’10. 2. Off-season Maize Crop. Birbirisa, Sakow, M. Juba, July ’10 3. Poor Maize Crop due to moisture stress Maligey Anole Buale M stress. Maligey Anole, Buale, M. Juba, July ’10. 2 3
Agriculture Gu 2010 Assessment Photos 1. Flooded Fallow Fields. 2.Good Maize Crop. Kamsuma, Jammame, L. Juba, Koban, Jammame, L. Juba, July ‘10. July ‘10.
Agriculture Gu ‘10 Local Cereal Flow Map
Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize) in Middle Juba (Buale & Jilib) Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize) in Lower Juba ( Jammame)
Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability Regional Trend: Daily Labour Rate in Middle Juba (Buale & Jilib) Factors Influencing Wage Labour Availability • Low Trade Activities • Low Trade Activities • Floods Regional Trend: Daily Labour Rate in Lower Juba(Jammame)
Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions Regional Trend in Purchasing Power (daily labor/maize), Middle Juba (Buale & Jilib) Regional Trend in Purchasing Power (daily labor/maize), Lower Juba (Jammame)
Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, June ’10 • Average to good pasture condition in parts of the region, with below average conditions in northwestern part of Sakow/Salagle and in Jira plain of Afmadow. • Good water availability • Good livestock body condition
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception Calving/ kidding Milk Expected calving/ Trends in Herd Size (Jul-Dec ‘10) (Gu ’10) (Gu ’10) production kidding (Gu ’10) Jul-Dec ‘10 Livelihoods Livestock species Juba Camel: Camel: Medium Average for Camel: Medium Southeast Cattle: Increased (Near Medium to Cattle: Medium all species to Low Pastoral Baseline) High Sheep/Goats: Cattle: Medium Sheep/goats: Increased (as Cattle: High to Medium Sheep/Goats: Baseline) M di Medium Hi h t High to Medium M di Sheep/Goat Southern Camel: Increase (Above s: High to Inland Baseline) Medium Pastoral Cattle: Increased (Near Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Near Baseline) Juba Agro- Cattle: increased (Near pastoral Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Near Baseline)
Livestock Gu’ 10 Assessment Photos Good Cattle Body Condition. Bula- Good Sheep & Goats Body Condition. Gadud, Kismayo, Lower Juba, July ‘10 Kismayo, Lower Juba, July ‘10
Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Middle Juba (Jilib & Buale) Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo)
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