Job Growth in the Region Economic Press Briefing: August 18, 2016 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
The 2 nd Federal Reserve District Regions in the District Upstate Puerto Rico & Northern NJ U.S. Virgin Islands Downstate 1 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Overview • The regional economy has continued to grow slowly over the past year, with many parts of the District seeing job gains. • New York City remains on a strong growth trajectory, while job growth in upstate NY and northern NJ has been slower. Puerto Rico continues to lose jobs. • Middle-wage jobs have finally started to return, though to different degrees across the region. 2 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Recent Economic Performance
Regional Employment Trends Indexes of Total Employment, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Dec2007=100) 112 Jun +1.7% 106 Y-O-Y +1.8% Jul Downstate NY +0.4% 100 Upstate NY +1.4% United States Northern 94 NJ Puerto Rico 88 -2.2% Shading indicates NBER recession 82 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. 4
Sectors Driving Regional Job Growth Net Change in Employment, Thousands, 2013-2016 (YTD) Downstate NY Upstate NY 150 50 Health & Education Services 129 120 40 Professional & Business Services 90 30 Leisure & Hospitality 88 70 60 20 Construction 44 14 30 10 Government 8 5 4 0 0 -9 -9 -30 -10 Northern NJ Puerto Rico 75 5 4 60 0 -2 -3 45 -5 -9 30 -10 28 22 -15 15 18 13 -20 4 0 -20 -15 -25 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com. 5
Recent Growth in and around New York City 2015 Private-Sector Job Growth Strong Ulster Moderate Dutchess Modest Little or None Putnam Orange Declining Fairfield Westchester Sussex Rockland Passaic Bergen Warren Morris Bronx Suffolk Essex Nassau Queens Kings Union Hunterdon Somerset Middlesex Monmouth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com. 6
New York City’s New Growth Sector Number of Jobs Thousands 200 +12,000 2010 to 2015 150 Securities Employment +53,000 100 Technology Employment Technology Employment • Computer manufacturing 50 • Electronic shopping • Software publishing • Data processing, hosting • Internet/web search portals • Computer systems design • Scientific R&D services Shading indicates NBER recession 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com. 7
Recent Growth in Upstate NY 2015 Private-Sector Job Growth Strong North Country Moderate Modest Watertown Little or None Declining Glens Falls Utica Syracuse Rochester Buffalo Albany Ithaca Binghamton Elmira Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com. 8
Upstate Manufacturing Employment Indexes of Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Jan1990=100) 120 100 80 Albany Buffalo 60 Syracuse Rochester 40 Binghamton 20 Shading indicates NBER recessions 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com. 9
The Return of Middle-Wage Jobs
Job Categories Based on 2015 Median Wages, United States $120,000 Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage 20% 50% 30% Management Education Healthcare Support $100,000 Computer & Math Arts & Entertainment Sales Legal Installation & Repair Building Maintenance Engineering Construction Personal Care Business & Finance Social Services Farming Healthcare Practitioners Protective Services Food Preparation Sciences Administrative Support $80,000 Production Transportation $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 11
Job Gains in the United States Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands 2,500 2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015 2,261 2,184 2,104 2,000 1,500 1,577 1,470 1,205 1,000 500 0 Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower Wage Wage Wage Wage Wage Wage Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 12
Middle-Wage Jobs Returning in the U.S. • Growth in traditional blue collar jobs: Construction [+400,000] Production [+300,000] Transportation [+500,000] Installation & Repair [+250,000] • Education jobs growing again as local government fiscal pressures have subsided. [+150,000] • Rebound in Administrative Support jobs. [+400,000] 13 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Job Gains and Losses in the Region Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Downstate NY: 2010-2013 Downstate NY: 2013-2015 180 179 157 144 130 102 90 18 0 Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower -90 New Jersey: 2010-2013 New Jersey: 2013-2015 90 45 35 27 27 23 7 17 0 Higher Middle Lower Higher Middle Lower -45 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 14
Job Gains and Losses in the Region Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Upstate NY: 2010-2013 Upstate NY: 2013-2015 60 30 22 19 15 5 12 Middle 0 Higher Lower Higher Middle Lower -25 -30 Puerto Rico: 2010-2013 Puerto Rico: 2013-2015 20 14 2 Middle Middle Lower 4 0 Higher Lower Higher -2 -20 -29 -39 -40 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 15
Middle-Wage Job Gains Weak in Some Areas Upstate NY Limited bounce back in Education and Construction jobs coupled with ongoing declines in Administrative Support and Production jobs. New Jersey Steep losses in Administrative Support and Production jobs. Puerto Rico Broad-based declines in middle-wage jobs, with large job losses tied to the island’s weak public sector ( Education , Protection ) along with an acceleration in Construction job losses. 16 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Summary • New York City continues to be an engine of growth in the region, with a burgeoning tech sector and widespread gains in middle-wage jobs. • Growth has been slower in upstate NY and northern NJ, where middle-wage jobs have not bounced back as much. • Puerto Rico continues to struggle under the weight of economic stagnation, a fiscal crisis, and out-migration. 17 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Appendix
Recent Job Growth in the District Percent Change in Total Employment, 2015Q2 to 2016Q2 3% NYC Lower 2% 2.1% Hudson Valley United Northern NJ States 1.5% 1.4% Buffalo Long 1% Rochester Island Fairfield 0.9% Albany 0.7% 0.7% Syracuse 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0% -0.1% Binghamton -1.0% -1% Utica -2% -2.2% Puerto Rico -3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff. 19
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