Is stable and satisfactory employment the impossible dream for todays - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Is stable and satisfactory employment the impossible dream for today’s young people? Preliminary results from the ILO School-to-work Transition Surveys Sara Elder Ideas4Work:Youth Employability and Entrepreneurship in Africa Dakar, Senegal 23-25 January 2013

Outline 1. What is the W4Y? 2. SWTS framework 3. Research questions 1. Is stable and satisfactory employment the impossible dream? 2. What does a ‘normal’ transition look like? 3. Assumptions of a school-to-work transition: Real or myth 4. Are there any surprises in the data? 5. Future research questions

What is W4Y? • Data is generated through the ILO school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)  Household survey, nationally-representative sample of 3,000 to 5,000 youth aged 15 to 29 years  Standardized questionnaire but nationally-adapted with focus on household characteristics, aspirations and perceptions of youth, extensive details on conditions of work and self- employment, means of job search, history of economic activities  Not just school graduates

What is W4Y? W4Y implements SWTS in the following 28 target countries twice over a five year period : Eastern Latin America Middle East Asia and the Sub-Saharan Europe and and the and North Pacific Africa Central Asia Caribbean Africa Armenia Benin Bangladesh Brazil Egypt FYR Macedonia Liberia Cambodia Colombia Jordan Kyrgyzstan Madagascar Nepal El Salvador Saudi Arabia Moldova, Malawi Samoa Jamaica Tunisia Republic of Tanzania Vietnam Peru Russian Federation Togo Ukraine Uganda Zambia

What is W4Y? Expected • School-to-work transition surveys (SWTS): outputs  2 rounds conducted in 28 countries in 2012/13 and 2014/15; • Global databases:  A database with data and indicators of the surveys;  A database on youth employment policies; • Publications:  10 regional reports synthesizing regional transition trends for youth;  2 Global Employment Trends for Youth  5 thematic global reports;  A report on MDGs and decent work for youth

SWTS framework • ILO defines the school to work transition as: ‘The passage of a young person from the end of schooling to the first stable and/or satisfactory employment’

SWTS framework Stages of transition cut across the boundaries of economic activities Non-satisfactory Temporary & non-satisfactory self-employment Strict unemployed (without work, actively seeking and available for work) Non-students with no plans Current students to work in future Transition completed In transition Transition not yet started

Research question 1 5.0% 12.6% TOGO Current full-time Stable & Non- Transition Not Started: Students Satisfactory 18.6% 1% 32.6% 2% Stable & Temporary & 25.0% Satisfactory Satisfactory 10% 62.4% 2% 62.4% Non-Students with no plans to work 18% Non-Students with Unemployed Inactive Employed Relaxed unemployed Inactive Employed plans to work 6% Transited: 45.5% Relaxed Unemployed Satisfactory Self- 13% Employment 31% Non-Satisfactory Self- In transition: Employment 35.9% 16% Temporary & Non- Satisfactory 1%

Research question 1 • Is stable employment the impossible dream? • Is satisfactory employment easier to attain? • What about informality? (Share of youth population - %) TOGO LIBERIA CAMBODIA ARMENIA Stable employment* 15.3 4.6 22.5 32.6 Satisfactory employment 43.4 33.7 66.7 23.9 Satisfactory self-employment 31.4 30.1 43.7 4.3 Employment in informal sector 84.3 87.7 66.0 33.1 Informal empl in the formal sector 15.7 12.3 34.0 66.9 * Does not include students or inactive young people who do not want to work

Research question 2 • What does a ‘normal’ transition look like? Flows to a completed transition Togo 45.3 43.9 Cambodia 35.8 35.0 Armenia 28.5 20.4 19.8 19.8 17.9 9.8 6.6 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.1

Research question 2 Average length of transition (transited youth) 100% 80% 60% Lengthy transition 40% Middling transition 20% Short transition 0% Average length in transition by level of Average length in transition for education, Togo university graduates, by sex 12.0 5.0 Male Female 10.0 4.0 8.0 Years Years 3.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 Togo Cambodia Armenia

Research question 3 Assumptions of a school-to-work transition: real or myth? Assumption Evidence Myth 1. Education matters Mixed results. In a country with little Getting a degree is enough. opportunity in modern, formal sector, the educated have a slightly harder time completing the transition. Where more opportunities for formal sector jobs exist, education does matter. Stages of transition by level of Stages of transition by level of educational attainment, TOGO educational attainment, ARMENIA 100.0 100.0 Vocational 80.0 80.0 Vocational school school 60.0 60.0 Tertiary Tertiary % % 40.0 40.0 Secondary Secondary 20.0 20.0 Primary or less Primary or less 0.0 0.0 Transited In Transited In transition transition

Research question 3 Assumptions of a school-to-work transition: real or myth? Assumption Evidence Myth 2. Wealth matters Youth from wealthy families are more Poverty closes all doors. likely to complete the transition to stable employment. Youth in poverty are more likely to transit to self- employment, satisfactory or not. Stages of transition by household financial situation, Togo 100% Transition not started 80% In transition 60% 40% Transited to satisfactory self- emp 20% Transited to stable emp 0% Poor Average Well off

Surprises • Stable employment is not the same as formal employment and can be attained at any education level. • Job satisfaction. Are youth really so easily satisfied (eg. Russia, 90% of working youth expressed satisfaction with their job) or is it a matter of adjusting to realities? What does this mean for normative research? • Rural job market is not agriculture alone. • Number of direct transitions (not much job shopping going on in developing economies). • Lack of stronger gender differentials in stages and paths of transition.

Future research questions Untested questions on the transition Research tasks 1. Does what you study matter? Cross-tabulate transition stages by fields of study 2. Does career training, use of public/private Cross-tabulate variables to paths of transition employment services, entreneurship training, financial inclusion and/or engaging in apprenticeships/internships make a difference? 3. How strong is the phenomenon of under- and Means of educational level of workers by over-qualifications of working youth? occupation approach 4. How do we best hone in on the issue of skills Run more regular labour demand surveys with mismatch? focus on vacancies and hard-to-fill vacancies and compare to what young people are studying 5. Does stable employment really mean better Cross-tabulate with other quality variables quality work? (hours of work, social dialogue, access to training, wages) 6. How does the labour market path of a former Almost all path of transition indicators remain to child labourer compare to non-child labourer? be seen