IRPC Public Company Limited Opportunity Day : 3Q17 & 9M17 Result 21 November 2017
Agenda 3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update Industry Outlook 2
Financial Highlight: 3Q17 & 9M17 Performance Higher spread & net stock gain resulted in good performance Overview of Business 50 51 51 43 Dubai (Avg.) 39 2Q17 3Q17 Unit: $/bbl Crude run KBD 176 194 201 181 170 1% 1% Planned TA Net Sales in 1Q17 (net excise tax) YoY 26% Net Sales YoY 16% 29% 31% QoQ 5% (net excise tax) 120,343 139,151 49,930 52,355 MB MB Unit: MB 49,930 52,355 41,622 68% 70% Market GIM ($/bbl) 12.5 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6 Acct. GIM ($/bbl) 11.4 11.6 16.1 12.7 14.9 YoY 114% YoY 7% EBITDA EBITDA 8% 16% QoQ 79% 23% Unit: MB 12,957 13,890 42% 3,706 6,635 MB MB 6,635 3,098 3,706 50% 61% -10% 17% YoY 149% YoY 15% Net Income 5% Net income QoQ 164% Unit: MB 36% 8,027 1,228 3,248 6,841 MB MB 3,248 59% 1,307 1,228 93% 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 3 Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
Agenda 3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update Industry Outlook 4
Petroleum Spread Better Refinery Spread from strong demand and lower supply by Hurricane impact Refinery Spread Lube Base Spread + Higher Cracker plant’s utilization rate - Plant resumed operation after main. SD in Asia Naphtha - Dubai 500SN – FO 180 3.5%S Spread QoQ 85% - Lower demand during Monsoon season 6.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 QoQ 5% (0.2) (1.3) (1.9) $/TON 556 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 528 451 442 443 418 367 + Higher ULG95 price impacted from Hurricane Harvey ULG 95 - Dubai + lower inventory in Singapore after export to Mexico + Strong demand from ME and India 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 + Demand from Indonesia and Vietnam $/BBL QoQ 13% - Plant resumed operation after main. SD in Asia 18.8 16.1 - Lower demand during Monsoon season 14.8 14.5 14.6 14.2 150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread 11.6 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 QoQ 12% $/TON + Tight supply impacted from Hurricane Gas oil - Dubai 844 780 + High demand from Sri Lanka 725 658 635 602 579 QoQ 22% $/BBL 13.9 12.0 11.8 11.0 11.4 10.5 9.6 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread + Tight supply from refineries’ main. SD in Singapore + Lower supply from Europe, Persian Gulf and export from Russia HSFO - Dubai + Increasing demand from ME for power generation QoQ 26% QoQ 22% $/TON $/BBL (7) (1.7) (1.4) (13) (1.8) (28) (3.1) (38) (4.3) (48) (5.2) (61) (80) (8.7) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 5
Petroleum Production Higher crude run after ADU II internal column retrofit enhance capacity Petroleum Production 187 182 176 188 116 194 201 181 170 Crude Run (KBD) 87% 85% 82% 87% 53% 90% 93% 84% 79% % U-Rate 38.9 Unit : Mbbl 36.6 0.9 2.5 2.6 RDCC 2.5 0.3 2.3 1.7 2.2 Lube 0.3 4.7 2.2 Asphalt 4.2 LPG + Other Naphtha 14.1 14.2 13.6 13.6 13.1 12.4 22.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 Gasoline 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 21.1 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.8 8.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 - 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.7 Diesel 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 7.6 7.6 0.8 7.6 7.8 8.6 7.1 Fuel 4.7 3.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 TA in 1Q17 Remark: Excluding internal use quantity TA Source of Crude Others, 9% 3Q17: 93% Utilization Rate Domestic, QoQ: 3% increase from ADU II capacity improvement 6% YoY : 11% increase from higher U-Rate of ADU II & RDCC units Far East, 9M17: 79% Utilization Rate 19% Middle East, 5% decrease according to Planned Turnaround in 1Q17 66% 6
Petroleum Group : Sales & Gross Refinery Margin (GRM) Refinery products spread brought better market GRM Market GRM Sales Volume & Revenue Sales volume (M.bbl) YoY 11% YoY 4% QoQ 2% Crude intake 43.6 42.0 17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 49.7 46.5 M.bbl 5.5 4.6 Unit : $/bbl Lube Base 16.1 15.6 15.8 15.2 14.5 13.9 38.1 37.3 10.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.1 Refinery 13.9 14.1 14.3 13.2 12.9 12.1 9.0 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.1 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 4.8 4.7 4.6 TA TA in 1Q17 2.1 4.1 1.4 2.8 4.0 2.3 Lube YoY 28% 2.4 YoY 19% 2.5 Revenue (MB) 2.5 2.1 Base QoQ 2% 2.6 Refinery 4.0 3.8 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 24,966 27,088 27,589 33,509 24,344 34,754 35,380 79,643 94,478 Petroleum 1.4 20,981 23 ,354 24 ,221 29,792 21,405 30,314 31,053 68,556 82,772 Refinery 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 3,985 3,734 3,368 3,717 2,939 4,440 4,327 11,087 11,706 Lube Base Sales Distribution 3Q17 : Petroleum revenue 9M17 3Q17 2% increase QoQ: 2% volume increase vs stable price 28% increase YoY : 11% volume & 17% price increase 3Q17 Market GRM was $5.9/bbl: $1.3/bbl increase QoQ due to higher R efinery’s spread Export Export 41% $1.8/bbl increase YoY from higher Diesel & FO spread Local Local 46% 54% 59% 9M17 : Petroleum revenue 19% increase YoY: 23% price increase vs 4% volume decrease 9M17 Market GRM was $5.1/bbl: Top 5 Export Destination in 3Q17 : Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Japan $0.4/bbl increase YoY due to higher Diesel & FO spread 7
Petrochemical Spread Shortage supply support Styrenics spread, lower Aromatics spread from soften demand + Product prices rose following crude HDPE-Ethylene – Naphtha Spread - RM prices moved up following crude PP-Propylene – Naphtha Spread oil price oil price +Higher demand to support the production for upcoming festivals QoQ 1% Olefins $/TON Ethylene-NP HDPE-Ethylene QoQ 3% 907 $/TON 876 Propylene-NP PP-Propylene 845 830 823 761 762 699 684 679 239 188 663 661 177 638 600 201 171 286 232 228 360 356 376 365 366 295 688 668 668 622 591 529 544 435 308 339 323 304 272 296 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 - Lower Demand MX – Naphtha Spread Toluene – Naphtha Spread - Feedstock prices increased following - Higher supply from plants crude oil price resumed operation after SD - Soften demand Aromatics QoQ 10% QoQ 6% $/TON $/TON 267 262 254 224 200 215 192 202 184 192 175 170 182 159 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 + Higher demand to support + Increasing Demand ABS – Naphtha Spread PS – Naphtha Spread manufacturing season + Tight supply due to impacted from + Shortage of RM caused by Hurricane Hurricane QoQ 12% Styrenics QoQ 11% $/TON $/TON 1,382 1,377 1,226 1,092 1,029 984 977 897 854 878 842 809 806 810 8 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
Petrochemical Group : Production Higher U-Rate after plant efficiency improvement program Olefins Aromatics & Styrenics 3Q17: 97% Olefins U-Rate at 220 KMT: PPE started 3Q17: 104% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate at 184 up in Sept. 2017 with 160 KTA capacity KTA owing to plant efficiency improvement 9M17 : YoY slightly lower U-rate given with 9M17: 82% Olefins U-Rate as planned TA in 1Q17 planned TA in 1Q17 Unit : KMT Unit : KMT 523 555 522 480 228 Polystyrenics 228 410 5 401 Polyolefins Styrenics 8 193 220 184 184 182 182 170 168 183 191 181 154 113 81 81 290 82 85 109 73 75 244 162 Aromatics 140 139 3 3 134 1 4 137 2 1 62 99 126 146 101 97 101 121 Olefins 92 96 3 95 48 49 52 44 29 10 53 58 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 UHV COD 98% 89% 80% 93% 61% 97% 104% 89% 87% % U-Rate 94% 95% 88% 84 % 54% 95% 9 7% 92% 82% % U-Rate 90% 86% 77% 80% 71% 95% 92% 84% 86% Polystyrenics 88% 91% 89% 82% 67% 93% 98% 89% 86% Polyolefins 97% 78% 49% 105% 69% 107% 113% 75% 96% Styrenics 99% 99% 87% 85% 42% 96% 97% 95% 78% Olefins 106% 98% 100% 98% 47% 94% 110% 101% 84% Aromatics Remark : - Utilization rate calculated based on the main products - volume excluded internal use 9
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