IPCC New Scenario from the IPCC New Scenario from the Viewpoint of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM Training Workshop 2007 Organized by NIES, October 2007, Tsukuba, Japan IPCC New Scenario from the IPCC New Scenario from the Viewpoint of Developing Countries Viewpoint of Developing Countries P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

IPCC NEW SCENARIOS: OVERVIEW • Context • The Preparatory Phase and Representative Concentration Pathw ays (RCPs) • Phase 1: Prepare climate and socio-economic scenarios in parallel • Phase 2: “Pair up” climate scenarios with new socio- economic scenarios; and scaling for IAV research • Phase 3: IAV-IAM “teaming to more fully integrate representation of impacts in IAMs and IAV research. IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Scenarios for Whom? Three major user communities: 1. Climate modeling community—need scenarios to provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths for Earth System Models. 2. Impacts modeling community—need scenarios to provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to assess the consequences of potential climate changes and to set the context for adaptive strategies. 3. Emissions mitigation community—to provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to assess the costs of emissions mitigation IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

REPRESENTATIVE SCENARIOS FORCING AGENTS GHG Emissions and Concentrations from IAMs – Greenhouse gases: CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, CFCs, HFC’s, PFC’s, SF 6 – Emissions of chemically active gases: CO, NO x , NH 4 , VOCs – Derived GHG’s: tropospheric O 3 – Emissions of aerosols: SO 2 , BC, OC – Land use and land cover IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Two Important Extensions to Existing Scenarios • Downscaling of SHORT LIVED SPECIES and LAND USE/LAND COVER to appropriate geographic resolution, perhaps as fine as ½ o x ½ o grid scale for the near-term climate scenarios (1 o x 1 o for the long-term climate scenarios). • Extension of scenarios to 2300. Extension of scenarios to 2300. IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

Defining Representative Scenarios Three Initial Stabilization and one Baseline Scenario • 8.5 W/m 2 High baseline reference  6 W/m 2 • High stabilization level  • Median stabilization level  4.5 W/m 2 • Low stabilization level 3 W/m 2  IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

PUBLICATION Preparatory Phase Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Preparatory Phase Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 IAV Research Activities IAV Research Activities Activities Begin translating BCP IAV IAV Activitie IAV IAV IAV analysis with IAV analysis with Assist in Assist in socio-economic Research Research selecting selecting new ESM and IAM new ESM and IAM scenarios in IAV BCPs BCPs Archive Archive scenarios scenarios research Planning for the next generation of research Planning for the next generation of research Reference Reference Stabilization Stabilization Technology Publication Lag +1 year Publication Lag +1 year Technology Policy Refe renc Policy Regional e Stab IAM New Scenario IAM New Scenario ilizat Regional ion Tec hnol ogy Poli cy Library Library Regi onal Refe renc e Stab Refe ilizat renc ion e Stab Tec ilizat hnol Reference Reference Reference Reference ion ogy Tec Poli Reference hnol Reference cy Reference Reference ogy Poli Regi cy onal Reference Stabilization Stabilizatio Regi Stabilizatio Activities Activities onal BCP BCP Stabilization Stabilizatio Stabilization Stabilization IAM BCP IAM n n Stabilization Technology Technology Technology n Benchmark Benchmark Technology Technology Technology Technology Benchmark Technology Concentration Policy Policy Refe Policy Concentration Policy renc e Concentration Policy Stab Policy Policy ilizat ion Pathways Pathways Tec Policy Regional hnol Regional Regional Regional Pathways ogy Poli Regional Regional Regional cy Regional Regi onal Regional ESM runs with BCPs BCPs ESM runs with Refe renc Assist in e Stab ilizat ion Tec hnol Activities Activities selecting BCPs ogy Poli cy ESM ESM Regi Coordination onal Long- Long -term term Near- Near -term term Long-term Near-term with IAV & IAM ensemble ensemble ensemble ensemble ensemble ensemble runs runs runs runs runs runs Archive ESM Archive ESM ensembles ensembles present present Mid 2008 Mid 2008 IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries

PUBLICATION Preparatory Phase Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Preparatory Phase Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Preparatory Phase IAV Research Activities IAV Research Activities Activities Begin translating BCP IAV IAV Activitie IAV IAV IAV analysis with IAV analysis with Assist in Assist in socio-economic Provide Representative Scenarios Research Research selecting selecting new ESM and IAM new ESM and IAM scenarios in IAV BCPs BCPs Archive Archive scenarios scenarios research Planning for the next generation of research Planning for the next generation of research – Long-term, HIGH reference Reference Reference Stabilization scenario Stabilization Technology Publication Lag +1 year Publication Lag +1 year Technology Policy Refe renc Policy Regional e Stab IAM New Scenario IAM New Scenario ilizat Regional ion Tec – Long-term, MID stabilization hnol ogy Poli cy Library Library Regi onal Refe renc e Stab Refe scenario (for calibration) ilizat renc ion e Stab Tec ilizat hnol Reference Reference Reference Reference ion ogy Tec Poli Reference hnol Reference cy Reference Reference ogy Poli Regi cy onal Reference Stabilization Stabilizatio Regi Stabilizatio Activities Activities onal BCP BCP – Long-term, HIGH stabilization Stabilization Stabilizatio Stabilization Stabilization IAM BCP IAM n n Stabilization Technology Technology Technology n Benchmark Benchmark Technology Technology Technology Technology Benchmark scenario Technology Concentration Policy Policy Refe Policy Concentration Policy renc e Concentration Policy Stab Policy Policy ilizat ion Pathways Pathways Tec Policy Regional hnol Regional Regional Regional Pathways ogy Poli Regional Regional Regional cy Regional – Long-term, LOW stabilization Regi onal Regional scenario ESM runs with BCPs BCPs ESM runs with Refe renc Assist in e Stab ilizat ion Tec hnol Activities Activities selecting BCPs ogy Poli cy ESM ESM Regi Coordination onal Long- Long -term term Near- Near -term term Long-term Near-term with IAV & IAM ensemble ensemble ensemble ensemble ensemble ensemble runs runs runs runs runs runs Archive ESM Archive ESM ensembles ensembles present present Mid 2008 Mid 2008 IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries IPCC new scenario from the viewpoint of developing countries