IPCC-class climate models: Issues for fisheries applications - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IPCC-class climate models: Issues for fisheries applications Gabriel A. Vecchi NOAA/GFDL Princeton, NJ, USA Salmon images: wdfw.wa.gov Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Outline • Introduction From IPCC-class models to the fish, issues: • Resolution • Inter-model spread • Internal variability • Summary Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Observational Evidence: Sfc Air Temp. Warming Global Avg. Sea Level Rising N.H. Snow Cover Decreasing Significance of trends determined from obs & modeled internal varibility Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Historical global temperature changes radiatively forced: long-term warming largely anthropogenic IPCC-AR4 (2007) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Regional SAT Warming Radiatively Forced IPCC-AR4 (2007) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Radiative forcing and global temperature Greenhouse gas emiss. Radiative forcing Temperature response Greenhouse gas conc. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Projections of Future Changes in Climate Projected warming in 21st century expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Used with permission. Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

How can IPCC-type models best be used to guide our long- term outlook on fisheries? Example: Statistical Projection of Cod Habitat Based on Water Temperatures Suitable for Cod Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/n Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Outline • Introduction From IPCC-class models to the fish, issues: • Resolution • Inter-model spread • Internal variability • Summary Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Resolution of GFDL-CM2.1 Ocean Image Credit: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

GFDL-CM2.1 40-m upwelling and currents Image Credit: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC July 100-year climatology Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Slide: Keith Dixon 2009 2004 Model- NOAA/GFDL Simulated Sea Surface Temperature GFDL-CM2.1: Delworth et al; Gnanadesikan et al; Stouffer et al; Wittenberg et al (2006, J. Climate) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

GFDL-CM2.4 40-m upwelling and currents Image Credit: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC July 100-year climatology Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Observed wind (SAR) 20 Jan 2000 27 Dec 1999 7 Jan 2001 Figures from Cliff Mass, U. Washington Atmos. Sci. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

GFDL CM2.1 7 Jan 2001 Atmospheric Resolution SAR Figure from Cliff Mass, U. Wash. Atmos. Sci. Wind speed (shaded) and wind velocity (vectors) 100-year Dec. Climatology Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

California Coastal Ecosystem upwelling and wind Observed upwelling: Model upwelling: Curl-driven upwelling has CGCM winds do not drive influenced pelagic fisheries strong upwelling. (sardines). Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

High-resolution atmospheric models Regional and global atmospheric models at higher resolution being developed and improved. GFDL regional model simulation. Models ranging in 100km to 18km resolution. Knutson et al (2007, BAMS) GFDL global model simulation. Zhao et al. (2009, J. Climate) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Prototype higher resolution AGCM gives stronger wind stress curl. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Other possible solution to unresolved scales: statistical downscaling • Develop a empirical relationship between a set of predictors on the large (model- resolved) scales, and the desired variables on the smaller scale. • Apply empirical relationship to model projections and other runs. • Choice of predictors can influence projection. Cautionary tale #1 from hurricane downscaling Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Observed Activity Absolute MDR SST Vecchi, Swanson and Soden (2008, Science) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Observed Activity Absolute MDR SST Relative MDR SST Vecchi, Swanson and Soden (2008, Science) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Observed Activity Absolute SST Model Abs. SST Relative SST Model Rel. SST Vecchi, Swanson and Soden (2008, Science) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Outline • Introduction From IPCC-class models to the fish, issues: • Resolution • Inter-model spread • Internal variability • Summary Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Inter-model differences • Many “IPCC-class” models exist in the world. 25 models in IPCC-AR4 archive. • Can differ in many ways: – Ocean, atmosphere, ice, land models – Sub-gridscale parameterizations and parameter choices – Forcing used, etc…. • Differ in ability to reproduce climatology: – Ability to reproduce climatology not necessarily test of model’s ability to project future. – Each model’s projection has some plausibility. – Cannot exclude a model’s projection solely because the projection is an outlier • Modest inter-model differences in large-scale can lead to big differences in downscaled result Cautionary tale #2 from hurricanes downscaling. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Ability to reproduce climatology differs between models Skill at reproducing 20th Century Newer models Reichler and Kim (2008, BAMS) • Skill increasing with time • Multi-model average better than any individual model • Ability to reproduce climatology not necessarily projection skill Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Inter-model spread on global temperature and precipitation sensitivity Temperature Precipitation Stronger forcing Weaker forcing IPCC-AR4 (2007) Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Change in El Niño activity Change in Pacific mean-state Change in El Niño activity IPCC-AR4 (2007) No general consensus on the change of El Niño amplitude. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

21 st Century projections of SST change GFDL-CM2.1 UKMet. HadCM3 Max Planck-ECHAM5 18-Model Average Zhao et al (2009, J. Climate) Each model indicates warming. The structure of warming differs considerably between models. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

21 st Century Hurricane Activity Change Based on four projections of 21 st Century Ocean temperatures. Adapted from Zhao et al. (2009, J. Climate) Red/yellow = increase Blue/green = decrease Details of ocean temperature change can changes sign of response. Identify changes consistent across models, range of solutions, and mechanisms controlling the solution. Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009

Outline • Introduction From IPCC-class models to the fish, issues: • Resolution • Inter-model spread • Internal variability • Summary Applying IPCC-class Models to Fisheries, Princeton, NJ Gabriel A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL 15 June 2009