“Lowering Natural Gas Production & Increasing Liquids Rich Drilling. Liquids Production Could Reach 13% or More of Total Production in 2020” Investor Presentation TSX / NYSE: AAV May 2018
ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE TSX 52-week trading range $3.48 - $9.24 Shares Outstanding (basic) 186 million Market Capitalization $0.8 billion 2018 Guidance 240 to 255 mmcfe/d Liquids Production (50% Increase over 2017) 1,800 bbls/d Exit Liquids Production 2,400 bbls/d Corporate Cash Costs $1.10 to $1.30/mcfe Estimated Dec. 31, 2018: Bank Debt (58% drawn on $400 million Credit Facility) ≈$233 million Total Debt (including working capital deficit) ≈$ 240 million Total Debt/Trailing 12 Month Cash Flow ≈ 1.5x (@ AECO $1.50/mcf to $1.75/mcf + WTI $65U.S./bbl) 2
OUR DISCIPLINED STRATEGY CREATED A SOLID FOUNDATION TO GENERATE LONG TERM VALUE World Class Montney Assets Significant Inventory of Operational Excellence, Innovation, Opportunity Dry & Liquids Rich Gas capture Locations VALUE CREATION Industry Leading Low Cost Gas & Liquids Supply Financial Flexibility with Strong Balance Sheet Own & Operate 100% Hedging & Market Plant & Infrastructure Diversification 3
RECENT LIQUIDS DRILLING SUCCESSES ENHANCES UPSIDE POTENTIAL ON 200 NET MONTNEY SECTIONS (128,000 NET ACRES) Alberta Only 4% of our liquids B.C. East Glacier Middle Montney rich lands have been 50-80 bbls/mmcf C5+ drilled First Montney well 624 Progress Total 110 net sections (39 sections) boe/d with 172 bbls/d 100% owned at Valhalla, Wembley liquids including 75 bbls/d Glacier Glacier Gas & Progress acquired wellhead C5+/oil 90 net Plant for a total of $19 sections million since 2013 Valhalla (40 sections) 4 well pad success 6,410 boe/d (32 mmcf/d gas + 1,075 bbls/d liquids with certain yields up to 100 bbls/mmcf, 90% C5+/oil) Up to 5 layers of dry and Wembley/ liquids rich gas Pipestone Future drilling inventory (31 sections) >1,200 locations and growing First Montney well 1,312 boe/d with 819 bbls/d liquids including 624 bbls/d 6 miles wellhead C5+/Oil 4
2018 PLAN UPDATED TO INCREASE FUTURE LIQUIDS PRODUCTION (1) LOWERING NATURAL GAS, INCREASING LIQUIDS • Reallocating budgeted capital to drill more liquids rich wells at Valhalla & East Glacier in 2018 (maintain $175 million capital program) • Liquids growth from Valhalla & East Glacier 2018 & 2019, Wembley liquids begin mid-2020 • Deferring current standing dry gas well completions to 2019 • Lowering natural gas production during low AECO price periods • Maintaining flexibility to increase gas production winter of 2018 & beyond should prices strengthen Annual Average Production Liquids Production (mmcfe/d) % of Total Production ~5% 10% - 15% 255 – 265 240 - 255 6% - 8% 5% - 6% 4.4% 2018 Original Guidance 2018 Updated Guidance (2) 2018 Guidance 2018 Exit 2019 2020 Update (2)(3) Primarily Valhalla & Wembley (1) Management estimates Notes: Glacier liquids growth mid-2020 (2) News Release dated April 19, 2018 5 (3) Midpoint of 2018 Guidance Range
INCREASING LIQUIDS STRENGTHENS REVENUE & NETBACKS (1)(2) (SENSITIVITIES + IMPACTS) Liquids Production 10% - 15% 1% Liquids ≈ % of Total Production 3% - 5% of Total Revenue Impact 6% - 8% 5% - 6% 4.4% 2018 Guidance 2018 Exit 2019 2020 Annual Liquids Revenue Cash Flow Netbacks Annual Liquids Revenue ($ Millions) (Excluding Hedging) % of Total Revenue (Excluding Hedging) $1.80 - $2.00 30% - 38% $100 - $125 $1.64 - $1.68 $58 - $65 21% - 24% 20% $45 $1.30 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 (1) 2018 prices at strip as of April 24, 2018 and then $2 AECO, $2.55 US/mcf Dawn and WTI $60US/bbl for 2019 and 2020 at Fx $0.79. 6 (2) Management estimate
2018 UPDATED PLAN SUMMARY ($ million) $45 2018 SUMMARY (1) (2) $130 • $155 to $165 Million Cash Flow • ≈ 1.5x Year-end 2018 Total Debt/Cash Flow Glacier Valhalla, Wembley, Progress • 240 to 255 mmcfe/d Annual Production Range • 50% Annual Liquids Production Growth to 1,800 bbls/d exiting the year at 2,400 bbls/d (>70% C5) $175 • $30 Million to Advance Liquids Development at $155-$165 Valhalla, Wembley and Progress Well • Drill additional Valhalla & east Glacier liquids rich Operations wells, complete in early 2019 $80 • Complete Glacier Gas Plant Expansion to 400 mmcf/d & 6,800 bbls/d of liquids extraction Q2 2018 Plant & Value Add Facilities • $1.10-$1.30/mcfe Total Cash Costs $85 • $13,300/boe/d All-In Capital Efficiency Other $10 2018 Capital Estimate 2018 Cash Flow (1) Midpoint of 2018 Guidance Range. 7 (2) Based on an average AECO Cdn $1.50/mcf to $1.75/mcf ($1.42/GJ to $1.66/GJ) and average Dawn US $2.80/mmbtu natural gas price and Advantage’s current hedge positions
MARKET & REVENUE DIVERSIFICATION (<27% REVENUE EXPOSURE TO AECO PRICES THRU 2020) 2018 Estimates at AECO Cdn Glacier Netbacks $1.75/mcf 17% 23% Revenue (1) $2.62 1% Liquids 35% Hedging $0.34 6% Ventura Royalties ($0.10) 7% 11% Chicago Operating Costs ($0.31) 8% 2% Henry Hub Transportation Costs (2) ($0.58) 10% Dawn Operating Netback $1.97 20% 5% Fixed Price 40% G&A ($0.09) AECO 21% Finance & other ($0.12) 17% Cash Flow Netback $/mcfe $1.77 $/Boe $10.62 Recycle Ratio based on 3 Year Average 2P 3.4x 27% 25% 25% F&D @ $0.52/mcfe (3) 2018E 2019E 2020E (1) Includes Dawn and Chicago natural gas revenue, adjustments for heat value (realized price) and natural gas liquids revenue. (2) Includes liquids transportation costs of $0.04/mcfe, AECO gas transportation costs Note: (1) Graph represents % of estimated revenue based on strip pricing at April 24, 2018. of $0.29/mcfe and AECO to Dawn transportation costs of $1.10/mcfe. (3) 2P F&D includes Future Development Capital and is based on Sproule’s 2015, 2016 8 and 2017 year-end 2P reserves reports.
NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION SERVICE IN PLACE ACCESSING SEVERAL HUBS AECO Transportation Service 500 (mmcf/d) 393 mmcf/d as of April, 2021 400 • Increasing firm service secured to 2021 • Ability to reduce future total service 300 commitments through evergreen contract 200 renewals 100 Alliance Pipeline Connection Proceeding TCPL 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 Alliance Firm Contracted Service Evergreen Contract Renewals Proceeding with Alliance meter station Physical Downstream Transport Capacity connection for 2018 125 (mmcf/d) 100 Glacier gas plant 75 TCPL Meter Station 50 Alliance Meter Station 25 0 Ability to further diversify downstream markets and 2018 2019 2020 2021 Dawn Chicago Ventura capture revenue optimization opportunities 9
MAINTENANCE CAPITAL AND SURPLUS CASH FLOW SENSITIVITY ILLUSTRATIVE AT 280 MMCFE/D (Q4 2018) (NO HEDGING INCLUDED) CASH FLOW Annual Surplus Cash $215 Million of $100 million $100 Million MAINTENANCE CAPITAL CASH FLOW $115 Million $115 Million (2) Cash Flow at AECO $2.50/Mcf 280 mmcfe/d Q4 2018 AECO $1.20/Mcf (1) Assumes 7.5 mmcf/d /7.5 Bcf for Upper/Lower Montney wells and 5.0 mmcf/d /5.0 Bcf for Middle Montney wells 10 Notes (2) Assumes Dawn at $3.30/mcf and a WTI price of $55 US/bbl.
ONGOING VALUE CREATION FROM OUR HIGH QUALITY ASSETS THROUGH OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE 11
ADVANTAGE’S LAND BLOCKS ARE IN A LIQUIDS RICH MONTNEY FAIRWAY – CONFIRMATION THROUGH RECENT DRILLING SUCCESSES Multi-Layer Montney Development Potential across Advantage Land Blocks Progress Glacier Valhalla Wembley Upper Montney (Dry at Glacier to C3+ 40 bbls/mmcf at Valhalla) Middle Montney (C3+ 20 to >250 bbls/mmcf. 50% to 90% C5+/Oil) Source: Canadian Discovery Digest/Advantage Lower Montney (C3+ up to 60 bbls/mmcf) Source: Canadian Discovery Digest/Advantage Recent Advantage Evaluation/Delineation wells 12 Wells drilled within last 18 months
LIQUIDS RICH MIDDLE MONTNEY RESOURCE PLAY EVOLUTION 2017/18 – AAV Confirms MM High Liquids Early 2013 - Advantage Yields & Wellhead (Free) C5+/Oil on Discovers MM liquids in Area New Land Blocks First AAV Progress well (LM) Initial 76 bbls/mmcf 63 bbls/mmcf liquid yield discovery Progress in MM 2013 Glacier Glacier AAV Valhalla Valhalla Valhalla 50-100 bbls/mmcf 6 miles First AAV Wembley • MM high liquid yields • Stratigraphic model 12-25 discovered early 2013 refined 277 bbls/mmcf • Initial focus on gross • Industry wells Wembley thickness of MM confirm regional sediments model • XRF analysis • AAV adds 37 net sections of land in • Depositional models Pipestone Pipestone 2017 • Acquired 43 sections • 200 net sections total at Valhalla and AAV land, 110 Wembley in Industry drilling through Progress, September 2013 encroaching on Valhalla, Wembley AAV Wembley NOTE: Liquid yields indicated are propane plus (“C 3 +”) based on a Glacier shallow cut liquids extraction process 13
WEMBLEY/PIPESTONE – ULTRA RICH LIQUIDS PRODUCTION R9 R8 R7 Oil Production Rate (bbl/d) Volatile oil area ~625 bopd production IP30 - Oil T73 AAV First Wembley Well 12-25 Mid Montney 1,312 boe/d 624 bbls/d free C5+/Oil 819 bbls/d C3+ 2.9 mmcf/d Pipestone Average over Average Initial 1-Year T72 Production Production TOTAL EUR (boe/d) (boe/d) (boe) Oil 581 303 361,000 Gas 409 260 384,000 NGL 160 101 150,000 1,150 664 895,000 Total Liquid Yield T71 300 260 225 Bbls/mmcf 14 CNRL ECA Kelt Blackbird Cenovus Pipestone
Recommend
More recommend