Investor Presentation April 2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward- looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors , managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Disclaimer www.tupras.com.tr 2 Investor Presentation
Refining Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Brent Crude Prices - Disagreement between OPEC and Russia + Impact of Iran & Venezuela sanctions - Concerns on global economic development + Escalating regional tension - Coronavirus related demand drop $/bbl 86 81.2 80 74 2019 ave. 64.3 $/bbl 67.0 2018 ave. 68 71.0 $/bbl 62 2017 ave. 55.4 54.3 $/bbl 56 50 44 2016 ave. 38 43.7 $/bbl 32 OPEC All waivers Drone Iran 31.8 Production expired on Attack to 30.7 Sanctions 26 Cut Decision Iran Saudi Fields OPEC+ disagreement 20 data as of 31 Mar 2020 Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Refining Market www.tupras.com.tr 4 Investor Presentation
Global Refinery Capacity Changes Expectations until 2024: • ~80% of net capacity additions will come from Asia & Middle East • Net capacity and demand in Europe will remain roughly unchanged 2012-2018 Net Capacity Additions by Region 2019-2024 Net Capacity Additions Asia & Middle East Other Total Europe -1.41 2.5 N. America 0.22 1.97 1.96 1.93 2.0 Japan -0.95 1.50 1.5 Other 1.30 0.89 2.0 1.0 Other Asia 0.49 1.7 1.3 0.51 Middle East 1.68 0.5 0.9 0.9 India 0.98 0.2 0.0 China 2.10 -0.5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Refining Market www.tupras.com.tr 5 Investor Presentation
Middle Distillate Cracks $/bbl Diesel Jet Fuel 5yr range 2019 2020 5 yr ave 5yr range 5 yr ave 2019 2020 20 20 17.9 17.0 17.4 16.2 16.6 16.2 16.4 15.0 14.9 14.8 15 15 14.1 14.4 13.9 13.8 12.9 13.2 12.5 12.5 11.2 12.2 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.4 10.1 10 10 10.3 9.3 7.9 5.8 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5 yr between 2015-2019, data as of 31 Mar 2020 Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Refining Market www.tupras.com.tr 6 Investor Presentation
Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks $/bbl Gasoline High Sulphur Fuel Oil 5yr range 2020 2019 5 yr ave 5yr range 2020 2019 5 yr ave 25 0 -5.0 -5.5 -6.9 -7.0 -8.6 -8.4 -9.8 20 -11.3 -10 -13.4 -15.8 -16.9 14.7 15 12.1 -20 11.0 -22.5 12.0 9.9 10 10.6 -22.4 9.8 10.0 9.4 9.0 7.7 -30 5 -31.6 -32.9 3.3 4.3 2.9 1.7 0 -40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5 yr between 2015-2019, data as of 31 Mar 2020 Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Refining Market www.tupras.com.tr 7 Investor Presentation
Crude Price Differentials to Brent 2 Supply Shocks on Heavy Crude • Iran Sanctions 0 Arab • Venezuela Sanctions Heavy • OPEC+ cut decision and over- -2 Basrah compliance Heavy • Druzhba contamination Kirkuk -4 • Drone attack to Saudi fields Kuwait -6 Ural -8 ¹Average -10 A total of ~4 mbd is missing from heavy crude pool since December -12 2018, leading to price increases and Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 narrowing differentials ¹Simple average of listed differentials Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Refining Market www.tupras.com.tr 8 Investor Presentation
Turkish Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Consumption 2015-2018 Million Diesel Jet Fuel Tons -2.4% 24.20 4.99 23.60 +8.5% +10.4% 22.30 4.58 +8.5% -3.9% 4.52 +2.7% 20.60 4.40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gasoline Fuel Oil ¹ 2.34 +1.8% 0.6 0.58 2.30 +3.1% 0.49 2.23 -3.5% 0.39 +6.5% -15.7% 2.10 -20.1% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Tüpraş and EMRA ¹Bunker excluded Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Turkish Market www.tupras.com.tr 10 Investor Presentation
Turkish Market, 12M 2019 Diesel demand contraction in H1 has been mostly off set in H2. Aviation driven jet demand has been healthy. Million Diesel ¹Jet Fuel Tons 6.0 30.0 -0.4% +6.5% 5.0 20.0 4.0 25.01 24.90 5.31 4.99 10.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 2018 2019 2018 2019 Gasoline ² Fuel Oil 3 1.5 1.0 2 +3.2% +0.5% 2.42 2.34 0.5 0.39 0.40 0.0 1 2018 2019 2018 2019 ¹ Transit flight consumption included ² Bunker excluded Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Turkish Market www.tupras.com.tr 11 Investor Presentation
Turkish Market, 1M 2020 Diesel demand recovery since H2 2019 continued while Jet beginning the year with a decline in 1M 2020. Million Diesel ¹Jet Fuel Tons 2.0 2.0 +9.8% -5.2% 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.78 1.62 0.5 0.5 0.35 0.33 0.0 0.0 2018 2019 2018 2019 Gasoline ² Fuel Oil 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 +6.6% -33.3% 0.5 0.5 0.06 0.04 0.18 0.17 0.0 0.0 2018 2019 2018 2019 ¹ Transit flight consumption included ² Bunker excluded Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Turkish Market www.tupras.com.tr 12 Investor Presentation
Turkey’s Net Import / Export Balance Million 2016 2017 2018 2019 Tons Export 4 3.0 2.8 0.3 0.1 0 -3.0 -4 -3.4 -8 -8.7 -12 Import -12.3 -16 LPG Gasoline Diesel Jet Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Turkish Market www.tupras.com.tr 13 Investor Presentation
Company Overview Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Shareholder Structure Tüpraş is Turkey’s biggest industrial company and leading refiner. Aygaz Opet Koç Holding 77% 20% 3% Energy Investments Inc. (SPV) 51% Domestic Ditaş Ownership 22% 79.98% Free Float Opet 49% 40% Foreign Körfez Ulaştırma Ownership 78% 100% ¹ As of December 31th,2019 Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Company Overview www.tupras.com.tr 15 Investor Presentation
Tüpraş’s Refining Assets & Distribution Network + Tüpraş supplies ~55% of Turkey’s petroleum product needs + Tüpraş benefits from an integrated system Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan optimization with its Oil Pipeline high complexity, procurement and logistics flexibility Turkey ‘s Storage Capacity Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Tüpraş & 57% Opet Others 43% Total 30 mn Capacity tons Railway Nelson 9.5 Complexity Kırıkkale İzmit Batman İ zmir • 5.4 MT Capacity • 1.4 MT Capacity • 11.3 MT Capacity Tüpraş • 11.9 MT Capacity 7 mn • NC: 6.32 • NC: 1.83 • NC: 14.5 • NC: 7.66 Storage m 3 • Storage Capacity: 1.3 mn m 3 • Storage Capacity:0.3 mn m 3 • Storage Capacity: 3.0 mn m 3 • Storage Capacity:2.5 mn m 3 Cap. Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Company Overview www.tupras.com.tr 16 Investor Presentation
Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Company Overview www.tupras.com.tr 17 Investor Presentation
Tüpraş Subsidiaries OPET, Distribution, Tüpraş Share: 40% DİTAŞ, Marine Transport, Tüpraş Share: 79.98 % • • 1,670 stations as of 31 December 2019 3 Crude Oil Tanker: 479,765 DWT • • As of November 2019 Market share: 19.0% in white products; 35.6% in 1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker: 51,532 DWT • black products 10 Product Tanker: 171,453 DWT“ Körfez Ulaştırma, Railway Transport, Tüpraş Share: 100% Tüpraş Trading UK , Trading, Tüpraş Share: 100% • Trading Office in London will be an important step into wider integration with the global energy landscape by allowing to: Closely monitor international market opportunities • ~7% share in Turkish rail freight market Support import and export operations • ~1.8 mn ton of product and semi-product carried in 2019. Create additional value from supply chain and sales activities • Operates with 10 diesel locomotives and over 600 cistern wagons Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Company Overview www.tupras.com.tr 18 Investor Presentation
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Crude Suppliers of Tüpraş In 2019, Tüpraş purchased 15 different types of crude from 8 countries with gravities ranging between 20-47 API. Main Crude Suppliers in 2019 Crude Oil Imports by Region (%) Africa America Europe CIS Middle East 81 79 76 71 67 65 63 55 34 17 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 6 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Apr-20 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Operations www.tupras.com.tr 20 Investor Presentation
Recommend
More recommend
