Investor Presentation Q1 Fiscal 2019 Update January 31, 2019
National Fuel is committed to the safe and environmentally conscious development, transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas and oil resources. For additional information, please visit our corporate responsibility website at https://responsibility.natfuel.com 2
NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company Developing our large, high quality Upstream acreage position in Marcellus & Utica Exploration & shales (1) Production 785,000 492 MMcf/day 42% of NFG Net acres in Net Appalachian natural EBITDA (2) Appalachia gas production California: oil production Midstream Expanding and modernizing pipeline generates significant cash flow infrastructure to provide outlets for Gathering Appalachian natural gas production Pipeline & Storage 4.2 MMDth $1.6 Billion 36% of NFG 38% of NFG Daily interstate Investments EBITDA (2) EBITDA (1) pipeline capacity since 2010 under contract Providing safe, reliable and Downstream : affordable service to customers in Utility WNY and NW Pa. Energy Marketing 750,000 $300 Million 22% of NFG % of NFG EBITDA (2) Utility Investments in safety 20EBITDA (1) Customers since 2014 (1) This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Please review the safe harbor for forward looking statements on slide 55 of this presentation. 3 (2) Twelve months ending December 31, 2018. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings Reinvested in the Business is included at the end of this presentation..
Why National Fuel? Large Appalachian Footprint Driving Significant Growth 4
Integrated Model Enhances Shareholder Value 1 Geographic and Operational Benefits of National Fuel’s Upstream Integration Drives Synergies: Integrated Structure: Exploration & Operational scale Production Upstream and Midstream Lower cost of capital Co-Development of Marcellus and Utica Lower operating costs Installation of just-in-time gathering facilities Midstream Expansion of pipeline transmission More efficient capital investment infrastructure to reach demand markets Gathering More competitive pipeline Pipeline & Storage infrastructure projects Midstream and Downstream Ability to adjust to changing Rate-regulated entities reduce operating Downstream commodity price environments expenses by sharing common resources Utility Higher returns on investment Utility and Energy Marketing segments are Energy Marketing significant Pipeline & Storage customers Strong balance sheet Growing, stable dividend Financial Efficiencies: Investment grade credit rating Shared borrowing capacity Consolidated income tax return 5
Nearly 50 Years of Consecutive Dividend Increases 2 48 Years 116 Years $1.70 3.0% yield (1) per share Consecutive Dividend Increases Consecutive Payments $2.9 Billion Dividend payments since 1970 $0.19 per share Annual Rate at Fiscal Year End 6 (1) As of January 29, 2019.
1 Production and Gathering Growth of 15-20% Through 2022 3 E&P Production Growth Supported by Production Growth Drives Significant Firm Transportation Portfolio Increase in Gathering Revenues 400 $250 15% Annual Growth 15% Annual Growth 20% Annual Growth 350 20% Annual Growth Seneca Net Production (Bcfe) Gathering Revenues ($MM) $200 300 250 $150 200 $100 311.5 150 270.9 210- 235.5 $130- 100 230 $140 178.1 $107.9 $50 50 0 $0 2018 2019E 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019E 2020 2021 2022 7 (2) Revenue trend line represents 17.5% growth, on average, from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2022 (1) Production trend line represents 17.5% net growth, on average, from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2022
L Leveraging Existing Infrastructure to Enhance Returns 4 Utilization of Existing Infrastructure for Ongoing Utica Development Amplifies Consolidated Returns Utica development on Requires modest investment in Resulting in significant Marcellus pads allows new Gathering facilities to consolidated return uplift use of existing: support production growth for E&P and Gathering Gathering Pipelines Gathering Costs in Western Development Area (CRV) 10+% IRR Uplift Compression Expected (3) Gathering Water Handling Facilities CapEx/Well Roadways and Pads ($ thousands) Marcellus $1,489 (1) (pre-2019) Utica $392 (2) (2019-2022) (1) Approximate WDA Marcellus gathering facility costs for 192 wells drilled and completed as of September 30, 2018. (2) Estimated WDA Utica gathering facility costs for the assumed 120 well locations in Clermont Rich Valley area of redevelopment. (3) Internal Rate of Return for Seneca WDA includes estimated well costs under current cost structure, and anticipated LOE and Gathering costs. Internal Rate of Return for Seneca WDA and Gathering includes expected gathering capital expenditures 8 through FY 2022, well costs under current cost structure, and non-gathering LOE.
$1 Billion+ Backlog in Pipeline & Storage Projects 5 Empire North Line N to Monaca - $23 MM (July 2019) (1) Empire North - $145 MM (second half of fiscal 2020) FM100 - $280 MM (late calendar 2021) FM100 • Companion project to Seneca-anchored Leidy South project Northern Access - $500 MM (as early as fiscal 2022) Supply Corp. Modernization - $150 - $250 MM (fiscal 2019-2022) Line N to FUTURE INVESTMENTS = $1.1 – $1.2 Billion Monaca FUTURE EXPANSION REVENUES = ~$150 Million Northern Access 9 (1) Parentheticals represent target in-service dates for the respective expansion projects.
First Quarter Fiscal 2019 Financial Highlights 10
First Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results and Drivers Adjusted Operating Results ($/share) (1) Drivers Q1 FY 2018 Q1 FY 2019 $1.12 Oil and Gas Pricing (2) Oil Prices $1.02 $61.70 $59.79 $2.72 $2.61 Utility $0.30 Natural Gas Prices Utility $0.25 Crude Oil ($/Bbl) Natural Gas ($/Mcfe) Pipeline & Pipeline & Net Oil and Gas Storage Storage Production $0.29 Natural Gas Production $0.29 45.8 673 Gathering 36.1 572 Oil Production Gathering $0.16 (sale of Sespe field) $0.13 Crude Oil (Mbbl) Natural Gas (Bcf) Exploration & Exploration & Production Production Revenue ($MM) $0.37 $0.34 Gathering Increased Seneca $29.7 Energy Marketing : ($0.01) Energy Marketing : $0.01 Natural Gas Production $23.8 Corporate/All Other : $0.01 Q1 FY18 Q1 FY19 11 (1) Adjusted Operating results of $1.02 for Q1 Fiscal 2018 and $1.12 for Q1 Fiscal 2019 include operating results of Energy Marketing and Corporate & All Other segments. See slide 61 for a Reconciliation of Adjusted Operating Results to Earnings Per Share. (2) Realized price after hedging.
Earnings Guidance FY2018 Adjusted Operating Results FY2019 Earnings Guidance $3.34 /share (1) $3.45 to $3.65 /share Key Guidance Drivers Seneca Net Production: 210 to 230 Bcfe Non-regulated Production & Gathering Throughput Businesses Gathering Revenues: $130-140 million Exploration & Realized natural gas prices (after-hedge) Production Natural Gas: ~$2.45/Mcf (2) (vs. $2.52/Mcf in FY 2018) ~$59/Bbl (3) (vs. $58.66/Bbl in FY 2018) Gathering Crude Oil: Realized oil prices (after-hedge) Regulated ~$285 million in revenues (expected decrease primarily Pipeline & Storage Revenues Businesses due to expiration of contract on Empire system) Pipeline & Storage Guidance assumes normal weather; modestly higher Utility Operating Income Utility gross margin expected to be offset by cost inflation Tax Reform Lower effective tax rate Effective tax rate ~24-25% (federal rate 21%) (1) Excludes the $103.5 million, or $1.20 per share, reduction in tax expense due to the remeasurement of deferred taxes resulting from the 2017 Tax Reform Act. See non-GAAP disclosure on slide 61 of this presentation. (2) Assumes NYMEX natural gas pricing of $3.25/MMBtu (winter) and $2.75/MMBtu (summer) and basin spot pricing of $2.75/MMBtu (winter) and $2.25/MMBtu (summer) for FY19, and reflects the impact of existing financial hedges, firm sales and firm transportation contracts. 12 (3) Assumes NYMEX (WTI) oil pricing of $55.00/Bbl and California-MWSS pricing differentials of 102% to WTI for FY19, and reflects impact of existing financial hedge contracts.
Exploration & Production and Gathering Overview Seneca Resources Company, LLC ~ National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC 13
E&P and Gathering Proved Reserves 3-Year Average F&D Cost ($/Mcfe) Total Proved Reserves (Bcfe) $1.50 3,000 $1.38 Natural Gas (Bcf) $1.32 Crude Oil (MMbbl) 2,523 $1.12 2,500 2,344 $0.98 $1.00 2,154 $0.74 1,914 2,000 1,849 $0.50 1,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2,357 2,142 1,973 Fiscal 2018 Proved Reserves Stats 1,683 1,675 1,000 361% Reserve Replacement Rate 500 30% Seneca Drill-bit F&D = $0.66/Mcfe (1) 70% 38.5 33.7 29.0 30.2 27.7 Appalachia Drill-bit F&D = $0.65/Mcfe (1) 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PDPs PUDs At September 30 14 (1) Seneca “Drill-bit” finding and development (“F&D”) costs exclude the impact of reserve revisions.
Recommend
More recommend