Investor Meeting Presentation February 2013 Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia www.dmo.or.id
Tab able le of of Con ontent tent Government Debt Position Prudent Fiscal Management Preserved Macroeconomic Stability to Support Further Growth
Government Debt Position
Gov’t. Debt Outstanding 2007 -2012 [ IDR Trillion ] 2.000 1.800 606 614 1.600 621 1.400 617 611 730 1.200 1.000 800 1.374 1.361 600 1.188 1.064 979 906 400 200 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*) 2013**) Loan Govt. Securities [IDR Trillion and % ] Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*) 2013**) Loan 730 45% 611 38% 617 37% 621 37% 614 31% 606 31% Govt. Securities 906 55% 979 62% 1.064 63% 1.188 63% 1.361 69% 1.374 69% Total 1.637 100% 1.591 100% 1.682 100% 1.809 100% 1.975 100% 1.980 100% Notes: + Provisional as of January 2013 4
Debt Maturity Profile [IDR Trillion] 140 120 As of January 2013 30 54 100 55 53 43 41 80 36 42 50 44 60 2 13 92 8 25 1 40 77 73 73 18 71 11 69 1 60 8 9 57 21 15 7 52 50 47 44 3 43 20 35 33 31 28 27 28 26 20 19 2 18 5 16 9 1 4 - 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040-2055 Loan Govt. Securities Note: Data is not including non-tradable govt. bond [IDR Trillion] 100,00 As of Februari 18, 2013 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 - 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2031 2032 2033 2035 2036 2037 2038 2041 2042 TOTAL 62,20 74,76 77,14 51,68 49,65 73,46 56,48 69,10 60,14 91,68 37,60 18,01 28,02 19,61 44,25 35,42 25,68 27,10 42,80 22,55 15,52 4,11 28,90 35,09 13,55 33,83 SUKUK USD - 6,31 - - - 9,70 - - - 9,70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SUKUK IDR 1,45 7,34 18,96 - 1,17 8,55 - 0,25 - 1,21 - - 1,55 - 2,85 - 2,18 - - - - 4,11 7,95 - - - SUN JPY - - - - - - 3,63 6,22 - 6,22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SUN USD - 22,32 9,70 8,73 9,70 18,44 19,41 19,41 24,26 19,41 - - - - - - - - - - 15,52 - 14,55 19,41 - 21,83 SUN IDR 60,75 38,79 48,48 42,95 38,77 36,78 33,45 43,22 35,88 55,14 37,60 18,01 26,47 19,61 41,40 35,42 23,50 27,10 42,80 22,55 - - 6,40 15,69 13,55 12,00 5
Debt Risk Indicators, 2007 - 2012 Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk 52,1 30,2 28,2 28,2 47,4 46,9 46,2 26,7 45,1 26,1 25,9 44,4 22,9 22,4 22,0 20,3 18,8 16,1 17,2 16,5 13,4 12,1 10,9 10,7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%] FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) Average Time To Maturity (ATM)-Years Debt Maturing in 1, 3 and 5 Years 10,4 34,6 34,1 33,2 32,4 31,1 30,6 10,0 22,7 9,7 21,5 20,8 9,7 20,3 19,4 18,6 9,5 9,3 8,2 7,6 7,2 6,8 7,1 6,4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Maturity debt portion < 1 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 3 year (%) Average Time to Maturity (in percentage) Maturity debt portion < 5 year (%) 6
Financing Trend, 2006 – 2012 Budget Deficit Financing (trillion IDR) 200 2,5 2,2 2,0 150 1,6 1,6 1,5 100 1,3 1,3 1,0 0,9 50 0,7 0,5 0 0,1 - -50 (0,5) 2006+ 2007+ 2008+ 2009+ 2010+ 2011++ 2012+++ 2013+ Govt Securities - net 36,0 57,2 85,9 99,5 91,1 119,9 159,6 180,4 Domestic Loan - - - - - 0,3 1,0 0,5 External Loan - net (26,6) (26,6) (18,4) (15,5) (4,57) (19,2) (4,4) (19,5) Others/Non-Debt - net 20,0 9,1 16,5 28,6 5,0 28,3 33,9 (8,1) Budget Defisit, % to GDP 0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,3 2,2 1,6 Notes: + Based on Audited Budget Report 7 ++ Based on Realized Budget 2011 (preliminary figure) +++ Based on Revised Budget 2012
Debt to GDP Ratio and Debt Service Ratio 2008 – 2013 Interest Expenses to Revenue and Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP) Expenditure Ratio (%) 12% 40% 33,1% 10% 28,3% 30% 26,1% 24,3% 8% 24,0% 23,1% 11,05% 6% 20% 9,01% 8,88% 7,70% 7,53% 7,40% 4% 10,00% 8,97% 8,48% 7,20% 6,79% 6,73% 10% 2% 0% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure Interest Expenses to Tax Revenue & Central Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%) Government Expenditure Ratio (%) 5% 16% 4,0% 3,8% 4% 14% 3,4% 4% 12% 3,1% 3,0% 2,9% 3% 10% 14,9% 3% 8% 12,8% 12,7% 10,6% 10,0% 2% 6% 9,8% 14,2% 15,1% 12,2% 10,7% 10,3% 2% 4% 9,5% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure Notes: * Based on Realization of Dec 2012 (Unaudited) 8 ** Based on Budget 2013
Gov’t Debt Securities Issuance Plan 201 3 2012 - Revised Budget 2013 - Budget Gov’t Debt Operation – Policy Combination IDR $ USD IDR $ USD Issuing in domestic market will be prioritized (trillion) (billion) (trillion) (billion) Issuing in variety of tenor Deficit (190,1) (19,59) (153,3) (15,80) Issuing in global market Amortization (158,8) (16,37) (159,5) (16,44) Maximum foreign issuance 14% from total gov’t External Loan (50) (5) (58) (6) debt securities issuance Govt Securities (incl Buyback) (109) (11) (100,9) (10) Buyback, debt switching, direct transaction Domestic Loan (0,14) (0,01) (0,25) (0,03) Initiatives strategic :USD issuance domestically & liability management (USD bonds) Non Debt Financing Expenditures (26,62) (2,74) (22,93) (2,36) Two Steps Loan (8,4) (0,87) (7,0) (0,72) Financing Needs (384,0) (39,6) (342,8) (35,3) Benchmark Series Indicative Tenor in for 2013 Domestic Market Financing Sources 384,0 39,6 342,8 35,3 Non Debt (Gross) 60,6 6,24 15,2 1,57 FR 66 – 5 Y 1 y - 13 % * 3 y - 10 % * ^ FR 63 – 10 Y Debt (Gross) 323,4 33,32 327,5 33,75 5 y - 18 % * FR 64 – 15 Y Govt Securities 268,5 27,7 280,9 28,9 10 y - 12 % * FR 65 – 20 Y Program Loan 15,6 1,6 6,5 0,7 15 y - 12 % * > 20 y - 21 % * Project Loan (Bruto) 38,1 3,9 39,4 4,1 * as percentage of total gross securities issuance in the domestic market Domestic Loan 1,1 0,1 0,8 0,1 ^ Retail bond Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD 1) a.o February 26, 2013: IDR 9.705 9
2012-2013 Funding Strategy Progress 2012 - (Million IDR) 2013 - Revised Item % of GDP Budget % of GDP Budget 2013 % Realization Realization (ao Feb 25, 2013) Budget (trillion IDR) (trillion IDR) Government Securities Maturity 2013 85.620.835 17.634.112 20,60% Total Revenue & Grants 1.358,2 15,9% 1.529,7 16,5% Government Securities Net 180.439.900 12.365.888 6,85% of which Tax Revenue 1.016,2 11,9% 1.192,99 12,9% Non Tax Revenue 341,14 4,0% 332,20 3,6% Buyback 3.000.000 - 0,00% Expenditure 1.548,3 18,1% 1.683,0 18,2% Issuance Need 2012 * of which Interest payment 117,8 1,4% 113,2 1,2% 280.860.735 30.000.000 10,68% 0,0% 0,0% Subsidy 245,1 2,9% 317,2 3,4% 0,0% 0,0% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 27.450.000 Primary Balance (72,3) -0,8% (40,1) -0,4% Overall Balance (deficit) (190,1) -2,2% (153,3) -1,7% 27.450.000 Domestic GDS 22.650.000 - Coupon GDS Financing 190,1 2,2% 153,3 1,7% Non Debt (Net) 33,9 0,4% (8,1) -0,1% 4.800.000 - Conventional T-Bills Debt 156,2 1,8% 161,5 1,7% 0,0% 0,0% Govt Securities (Net) 159,6 1,9% 180,4 1,9% - Retail Bonds 0,0% 0,0% Domestic Official Borrowing 1,0 0,0% 0,5 0,0% - International Bonds External Official Borrowing (Net) (4,4) -0,1% (19,5) -0,2% Disbursement 53,7 0,6% 45,9 0,5% - USD Global Bonds Program Loan 15,6 0,2% 6,5 0,1% - Samurai Bonds Project Loan (Bruto) 38,1 0,4% 39,4 0,4% On lending (8,4) -0,1% (7,0) -0,1% Government Islamic Debt Securities 2.550.000 Repayment (49,7) -0,6% (58,4) -0,6% Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 2.550.000 Assumptions: - IFR/PBS (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Proje 2.550.000 GDP (trillion) 8.542,6 9.269,6 Growth (%) 6,5 6,8 - Islamic T-Bills Inflation (%) 6,8 4,9 - Retail Sukuk 3-months SPN (% avg) 5,0 5,0 Rp / USD (avg) 9.000,0 9.300,0 - SDHI Oil Price (USD/barrel) 105,0 100,0 International Sukuk Oil Lifting (MBCD) 930,0 900,0 *Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch 10
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