Investor Meeting Presentation January 2013 Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia www.dmo.or.id
Tab able le of of Con ontent tent Government Debt Position Prudent Fiscal Management Preserved Macroeconomic Stability to Support Further Growth
Government Debt Position
Gov’t. Debt Outstanding 2007 -2012 [ triliun rupiah/ in trillion IDR ] 2,000 1,800 615 1,600 621 1,400 617 611 730 1,200 586 1,000 800 1,375 600 1,188 1,064 979 906 400 803 200 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ Pinjaman/ Loans SBN/ Securities [ dalam triliun Rupiah dan %/ in trillion IDR and % ] 2012 + 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Tahun/ Year Pinjaman/ Loans 586 42% 730 45% 611 38% 617 37% 621 37% 615 31% SBN/ Securities 803 58% 906 55% 979 62% 1,064 63% 1,188 63% 1,375 69% Total Utang Pemerintah Pusat/ 1,389 100% 1,637 100% 1,591 100% 1,682 100% 1,809 100% 1,991 100% Central Govt. Debt Total Notes: + Provisional as of November 30, 2012 4
Debt Maturity Profile [triliun Rupiah/ in trillion IDR] 140 As of November 30, 2012 120 30 56 54 100 56 43 41 80 42 36 50 44 60 2 8 12 92 25 40 77 1 76 71 18 70 69 10 1 60 8 57 8 21 15 52 50 47 44 43 7 2 10 20 35 32 30 28 28 26 27 18 20 1 15 4 15 14 1 9 4 - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040-2055 Pinjaman/ Loans SBN/ Securities 100,00 As of January 7, 2013 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 - 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 2031 2032 2033 2035 2036 2037 2038 2041 2042 TOTAL 75,35 71,89 77,28 51,77 49,68 69,14 56,80 69,58 60,23 92,20 31,58 18,01 28,02 19,61 44,25 30,82 25,68 27,10 42,80 13,85 15,58 4,11 27,75 35,16 13,55 33,91 SUKUK USD - 6,33 - - - 9,74 - - - 9,74 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SUKUK IDR 8,78 7,34 18,96 - 1,17 7,91 - 0,25 - 1,21 - - 1,55 - 2,85 - 2,18 - - - - 4,11 6,74 - - - SUN JPY - - - - - - 3,87 6,64 - 6,64 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SUN USD - 22,40 9,74 8,76 9,74 18,50 19,48 19,48 24,35 19,48 - - - - - - - - - - 15,58 - 14,61 19,48 - 21,91 SUN IDR 66,57 35,82 48,58 43,01 38,77 33,00 33,45 43,22 35,88 55,14 31,58 18,01 26,47 19,61 41,40 30,82 23,50 27,10 42,80 13,85 - - 6,40 15,69 13,55 12,00 5
Debt Risk Indicators, 2007 - Q3 2012 Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk 52.1 30.2 28.2 28.2 47.4 46.9 46.2 26.7 45.1 26.1 25.9 44.8 22.9 22.3 21.2 20.3 18.8 16.1 17.2 16.5 13.4 12.1 10.9 11.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3-2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3-2012 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%] FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) Average Time To Maturity (ATM)-Years Debt Maturing in 1, 3 and 5 Years 10.4 34.6 34.2 33.7 33.2 31.1 30.6 10.0 9.8 22.7 22.3 9.7 20.8 20.3 19.4 18.6 9.5 9.3 8.3 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.8 6.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3-2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3-2012 Maturity debt portion < 1 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 3 year (%) Average Time to Maturity (in percentage) Maturity debt portion < 5 year (%) 6
Financing Trend, 2006 – 2012 Budget Deficit Financing (trillion IDR) 200 2,5 2,2 2,0 150 1,6 1,6 1,5 100 1,3 1,3 1,0 0,9 50 0,7 0,5 0 0,1 - -50 (0,5) 2006+ 2007+ 2008+ 2009+ 2010+ 2011++ 2012+++ 2013+ Govt Securities - net 36,0 57,2 85,9 99,5 91,1 119,9 159,6 180,4 Domestic Loan - - - - - 0,3 1,0 0,5 External Loan - net (26,6) (26,6) (18,4) (15,5) (4,57) (19,2) (4,4) (19,5) Others/Non-Debt - net 20,0 9,1 16,5 28,6 5,0 28,3 33,9 (8,1) Budget Defisit, % to GDP 0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,3 2,2 1,6 Notes: + Based on Audited Budget Report 7 ++ Based on Realized Budget 2011 (preliminary figure) +++ Based on Revised Budget 2012
Debt to GDP Ratio and Debt Service Ratio 2005 – 2012 Interest Expenses to Revenue and Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP) Expenditure Ratio (%) 40% 12% 35,2% 33,1% 10% 28,4% 30% 26,1% 24,3% 23,9% 8% 11,28% 11,05% 6% 20% 9,01% 8,88% 7,71% 7,52% 4% 10,53% 10,00% 8,97% 8,48% 7,20% 6,78% 10% 2% 0% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* to Revenue to Expenditure 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Interest Expenses to Tax Revenue & Central Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%) Government Expenditure Ratio (%) 6% 18% 5,0% 16% 5% 14% 4,0% 3,8% 12% 4% 3,4% 3,1% 3,1% 10% 15,8% 14,9% 3% 8% 12,8% 12,7% 10,6% 10,1% 6% 2% 17,0% 14,2% 15,1% 12,2% 10,7% 10,2% 4% 2% 1% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure Notes: * Based on Unaudited Budget 2012, Subject to change, as of December 2012 8
Gov’t Debt Securities Issuance Plan 201 3 Gov’t Debt Operation – Policy Combination 2012 - Revised Budget 2013 - Budget IDR $ USD IDR $ USD Issuing in domestic market will be prioritized (trillion) (billion) (trillion) (billion) Issuing in variety of tenor Deficit (190,1) (19,52) (153,3) (15,74) Issuing in global market (Global Bond and Amortization (158,8) (16,31) (159,5) (16,38) Samurai Bond) External Loan (50) (5) (58) (6) Maximum foreign issuance 14% from total gov’t debt securities issuance Govt Securities (incl Buyback) (109) (11) (100,9) (10) Buyback, debt switching, direct transaction Domestic Loan (0,14) (0,01) (0,25) (0,03) Initiatives strategic :USD issuance domestically & Non Debt Financing Expenditures (26,62) (2,73) (22,93) (2,35) liability management (USD bonds) Two Steps Loan (8,4) (0,87) (7,0) (0,72) Financing Needs (384,0) (39,4) (342,8) (35,2) Benchmark Series Indicative Tenor in for 2013 Domestic Market Financing Sources 384,0 39,4 342,8 35,2 Non Debt (Gross) 60,6 6,22 14,8 1,52 FR 66 – 5 Y 1 y - 13 % * 3 y - 10 % * ^ Debt (Gross) 323,4 33,20 328,0 33,67 FR 63 – 10 Y 5 y - 18 % * FR 64 – 15 Y Govt Securities 268,5 27,6 281,3 28,9 10 y - 12 % * FR 65 – 20 Y Program Loan 15,6 1,6 6,5 0,7 15 y - 12 % * > 20 y - 21 % * Project Loan (Bruto) 38,1 3,9 39,4 4,0 * as percentage of total gross securities issuance in the domestic market Domestic Loan 1,1 0,1 0,8 0,1 ^ Retail bond Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD 1) a.o January 9, 2013: IDR 9.740 9
2012-2013 Funding Strategy Progress 2012 - 2013 - Revised Item % of GDP Budget % of GDP Budget (trillion IDR) (trillion IDR) Total Revenue & Grants 1.358,2 15,9% 1.529,7 16,5% of which Tax Revenue 1.016,2 11,9% 1.192,99 12,9% Non Tax Revenue 341,14 4,0% 332,20 3,6% Expenditure 1.548,3 18,1% 1.683,0 18,2% of which Interest payment 117,8 1,4% 113,2 1,2% 0,0% 0,0% Subsidy 245,1 2,9% 317,2 3,4% 0,0% 0,0% Primary Balance (72,3) -0,8% (40,1) -0,4% Overall Balance (deficit) (190,1) -2,2% (153,3) -1,7% Financing 190,1 2,2% 153,3 1,7% Non Debt (Net) 33,9 0,4% (8,1) -0,1% Debt 156,2 1,8% 161,5 1,7% 0,0% 0,0% Govt Securities (Net) 159,6 1,9% 180,4 1,9% 0,0% 0,0% Domestic Official Borrowing 1,0 0,0% 0,5 0,0% External Official Borrowing (Net) (4,4) -0,1% (19,5) -0,2% Disbursement 53,7 0,6% 45,9 0,5% Program Loan 15,6 0,2% 6,5 0,1% Project Loan (Bruto) 38,1 0,4% 39,4 0,4% On lending (8,4) -0,1% (7,0) -0,1% Repayment (49,7) -0,6% (58,4) -0,6% Assumptions: GDP (trillion) 8.542,6 9.269,6 Growth (%) 6,5 6,8 Inflation (%) 6,8 4,9 3-months SPN (% avg) 5,0 5,0 Rp / USD (avg) 9.000,0 9.300,0 Oil Price (USD/barrel) 105,0 100,0 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 930,0 900,0 10
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