Investigating the Spatial-temporal patterns of the Somali people A - PDF document

Investigating the Spatial-temporal patterns of the Somali people A Case Study of Baidoa Town Authors: Umikaltuma Ibrahim, M ariam Alwi, Richard Ng’etich, Mohamed Abdinur and Felix Mulama Introduction Somalia’s population is on the rise. Major urban towns such as Mogadishu have increased in size and expanded over the years mainly due to the improving security situation. One other town that is experiencing growth is Baidoa, located about 256 kilometres North West of Mogadishu. The city is one of the key strategic cities in the South/Central area of Somalia and is traditionally one of the most important economic centres in the region. The population of Baidoa district increased from 227, 761 in 2005 (United Nations Development Programme, 2005) to 305, 679 in 2013 (United Nations Population Fund, 2014); a growth rate of 3.7%. The town consists of the host community (locals) and internally displaced persons (IDPs); as such, this growth can be attributed to both the improved security situation and the increasing IDP population (INTERSOS, 2016). Baidoa; the once temporary headquarters of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the current capital of the South West Federal State of Somalia, has been dogged by both civil and political unrest over the past two decades. Most significantly, in December 2006, the TFG forces joined forces with Ethiopian troops to defeat the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in the Battle of Baidoa. In 2008, Al-Shabaab - a faction that morphed from the ICU, captured Baidoa once more. However, in 2012, the Somali government forces and the Ethiopian forces re-captured the town. The South West state consisting of Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions was later established in 2014 with Baidoa (capital of Bay) instated as the state capital. In addition to the changing political occupations, the area has also faced the brunt of the resulting

humanitarian crises. During the 2011 Somalia famine, Baidoa had been classified as experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe due to the famine. In 2017, Baidoa town faced yet another humanitarian crisis in the severe drought that devastated the country resulting in the town hosting an estimated 142,475 drought related displaced persons. 82% of these IDPs originated from Bay region where Baidoa is located (International Organization for Migration, 2017). The combined effect of the famine and the conflict has caused a negative impact on the town’s economic stability and livelihoods leading to a dire humanitarian situation and major displacements of population. This situation is soon to be magnified by the returning Somali refugees from Dadaab, Kenya, as the town has been selected as one of the nine voluntary repatriation sites for Somali refugees in South-Central regions of Somalia. Over the years, it has also become clear that persons living in nearby districts in Baidoa gravitate to the town to seek basic services such as shelter, food, health care etc. during any humanitarian crisis. This study aims to demonstrate the patterns in population movement in Baidoa town through a comparison of enumeration areas, number of households and number of structures. Understanding these spatial patterns will aid humanitarian actors in preparing effective response plans for both the host community and the influx of IDPs. The findings of the spatial analysis show that the population of Baidoa town continues to rise. The numbers of households and enumeration areas have both increased four-fold from 2013 to 2017. Objective The main objective of the study is to investigate the population patterns in Baidoa town through comparisons of previous and current enumeration areas (EAs), number of households (HHs) and number of structures.

Methodology In 2013, the Population Estimation Survey of Somalia (PESS) was conducted with the aim of estimating the population size, gathering information on the spatial distribution of the Somali people and their social and economic characteristics. The sample survey produced the first ever reliable estimates of the population since the last 1975 Somalia census. A key milestone of the survey was the development of a sampling frame covering urban, rural, IDP and nomadic areas. The urban and rural area frames were formed through ground delineation of smaller clusters of households called enumeration areas. For the purposes of the PESS survey, the Somali authorities defined an enumeration area as a designated area with an average of about 100 households and that ranges from 50 to 149 households. In this study, the changes and movements of the population of Baidoa town have been investigated using the enumeration area as the unit of analysis. The study analyses EA data collected from: 1. The field mapping for the PESS survey in 2013. This was the initial delineation of EAs in Baidoa town. EAs were delineated based on the threshold of 50 to 149 households. 2. Household listing exercise carried out in 2016 for a sample survey conducted in Somalia. This listing involved updating the EAs created in 2013 with data collected in the field. Baidoa was one of the few towns selected for this survey in Somalia. 3. Desk update of the sampling frame for the Somali Health and Demographic Survey in 2017. This update has been carried out solely using high resolution satellite imagery and uses a structure as a proxy for a household. Visible structures were digitized in Baidoa town and classified as dwellings/residential and non-dwellings/non-

residential. EAs were then created in a geographic information system based on the count of dwelling structures maintaining the previous threshold of 50 to 149. Results Baidoa’s population has been on the rise since the initial field mapping in 2013. The number of EAs has increased four-fold from 2013 to 2017. The EAs have increased from 66 in 2013, 119 in 2016 to over 300 in 2017. The corresponding number of households increased from 7,976 in 2013, 13,990 in 2016 and 32,447 in 2017. The map below shows the number and distribution of enumeration areas created during the PESS survey in 2013 in Baidoa. Figure 1: Map of 66 EAs in Baidoa in 2013 Figure 2 below shows the number and distribution of enumeration areas updated in 2016 from household listing. As a result of the increase in the number households in 34 of the

original 66 EAs from 2013, these EAs were segmented into two or more EAs in 2016 in order to fulfil the criteria set of 50 to 149 households per EA. This segmentation yielded 119 EAs. Figure 2: Map of 119 EAs in Baidoa in 2016 In 2017, as part of the preparatory work for the first Somali Health ad Demographic Survey, the sampling frame was updated using high resolution satellite imagery instead of a complete household listing of the urban and rural areas. Figure 3 below shows the number and distribution of enumeration areas created from the count of dwelling structures obtained from the imagery.

Figure 3: Map of over 300 EAs in 2017 based dwelling structure counts An analysis of sampled EAs in 2016 and 2017 demonstrates that this trend continues. Figure 5 below shows EA 0001 which had 140 households in 2016 and Figure 6 shows the same EA in 2017 split into 9 new EAs with a total of 880 households/structures. Figure 4: Map showing EA 0001 which had 140 households in 2016

Figure 5: Map showing EA 0001 which had 880 households in 2017 EAs 0045 in the eastern part of Baidoa town experienced similar changes. The EA originally had a household count of 135 but the EA was split into 2 EAs of 110 and 119 households in 2016. In 2017, the two EAs were each further split into 2 EAs. Figure 6: Map showing EA 0045 in 2013 with 135 HHs

Figure 7: Map of EA 0045 split into EA 004501 and EA 004502 in 2016 Figure 8: Map of EAs 004501 and 004502 split into 4 new EAs in 2017 with 98, 70, 148 and 60 HHs

A further comparison done using two satellite images from December 2013 and December 2015 (shortly before the 2016 mapping), showed that despite the overall increase in the number of EAs in Baidoa from 2013 to 2016, the number of structures did not exhibit the same increase. Figure 9 below shows EA 0011 in 2013 having 123 households. In Figure 10, the same EA was split into 3 EAs in 2016 having 113, 127 and 118 households. As can be seen from the two images, there was no noticeable increase in the number of structures despite the number of households increasing three-fold. This may be an indication that in 2013, a number of households had moved out of their homes in Baidoa due to insecurity and moved back into those homes once the town was re-captured from Al-Shabaab. 118 HHs 123 HHs 127 HHs 113 HHs Figure 9: EA 0011 in 2013 having 123 HHs Figure 10: EA 0011 split into 3 EAs in 2016 Conclusions The comparisons of previous and current enumeration areas, number of households and number of structures proved to be useful in understanding the population patterns in Baidoa town.