06/05/2015 Invaders from the North: 15 years of monitoring tropical fishes on the Sapphire Coast David Booth Professor of Marine Ecology UTS Outline 1. Setting the scene: the ocean 1. The dynamic Sapphire Coast 2. Surprise visitors! 15 years of monitoring vagrant fish: patterns and citizen science 3. Why is it so? Getting here and what happens next… 4. The future: coral reefs on the Sapphire Coast?? 1
06/05/2015 Cairns # Townsville # Rockhampton # Brisbane # Newcastle # Sydney # Canberra # Melbourne # NSW Fish diversity Western Boundary Currents: key 2001 poleward dispersal agents Cairns # Tropical fish range advance Townsville # Rockhampton GULF # STREAM KUROSHIO (McBride, 1998) CURRENT Brisbane (Nakamura, 2013) # equator Newcastle BRAZIL # Sydney CURREN # EAC Canberra (Floater et al. 2009) T # ( Booth et al., 2007) Melbourne # Temperate fish range retraction An extreme case : tropical fish TROPICAL TAXA incursions into temperate seas Core� breeding� Poleward transport Edge� breeding� � (offspring� mostly� advected� away)� Adult� edge� � (non-breeding)� Peripheral� (recruitment� only)� Sporadic� peripheral� 2
06/05/2015 Latitudinal patterns One Tree Island (23°S) 600 tropical species Solitary Islands (30° S) LHI Lord 250 tropical species (31.5° S) Howe Is. Sydney 400 trop. spp. (33.5 ° S) 86 tropical species • Montague Island (36° 15’ S) 75 tropical species • Merimbula (37° S) 44 tropical species 3
06/05/2015 Species accumulation 90 80 Sydney Merimbula 70 Num tropical species 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 200 180 160 Num tropical species 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 2000 Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Abundance thru time… 50 45 40 14 35 Density(#/1000m-2) 12 30 25 10 20 8 MEM total MEM chaets 15 6 10 MEM poms 4 5 2 0 0 160 350 Density (# per 1000m-2) 140 300 120 250 100 80 SYD chaets 200 60 SYD poms 150 40 SYD total 20 100 0 50 0 C. auriga C. flavirost ris 45 Species concordance 40 C flavirostris abundance 35 3 30 C. auriga 25 2.5 20 2 15 1.5 10 C. flavirostris MEM C auriga 5 1 MEM C flav 0 0.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 C. Auriga abundance 0 C. auriga C. flavirostris 4
06/05/2015 Rare species (<10 indiv over 13 years) Growth patterns Acanthurus lineatus 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013 Increment number Scolopsis sp . 2013 • Time in the plankton (PLD) LARVAL STAGE Pseudanthias squamipinnis 2002, 2004, 2011 Pomacentrus wardi 2004 Pomacentrus nakasakiensis 2011 JUVENILE Caesio caerulaurea 2013 STAGE PLD,� days� 20� 25� 30� 35� Lizard� Growth patterns Cairns Id.� # One� Townsville Tree� # Is.� Increment number Lord� Howe� • Rockhampton Time in the plankton (PLD) # LARVAL STAGE Is.� Brisbane Increment width # Sydney� • Somatic growth Jervis� • Lipid reserves Newcastle Bay� • # Water chemistry Sydney # Merimbula� Canberra # JUVENILE STAGE Melbourne # Within- species variation in dispersal… Eg Chaetodon vagabundus Cairns # Townsville # 100 Rockhampton # 80 60 Brisbane 40 * # 20 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Newcastle # Sydney # Berumen et al. 2011 Canberra # 40-60% self-recruit Booth et al. 2007 Parentage analysis Melbourne from Booth and # (PLD 27-49d) Parkinson 2011 5
Cumultive Increment widths (um) • 360 species within 55 different families 100 150 200 250 300 Proportional importance of vagrancy within tropical families 50 0 15 25 35 45 55 -5 5 Chaetodontidae Cumulative incremetn width (um) 1 Balistidae 100 150 200 250 Acanthuridae 50 0 Kyphosidae 0 Mullidae Ostraciidae 11 Pempheridae Cirrhitidae Labridae Pomacentridae 10 Scaridae Increment # 21 Lutjanidae Monacanthidae Pelagic growth Pelagic growth Synodontidae Caesionidae Latidae Days Ptereleotridae 31 20 Lethrinidae Siganidae Ephippidae Malacanthidae Families Pomacanthidae 41 Scorpaenidae 30 Plotosidae Holocentridae Who makes it??? Blenniidae Tetraodontidae Pinguipedidae Serranidae Plesiopidae 40 Feary et al 2013 Fish and Fisheries Haemulidae Merimbula Jervis Sydney Lord Howe Solitaries One Tree Lizard Antennariidae Nemipteridae Microdesmidae Synanceiidae Merimbula Jervis Sydney Lord Howe One Tree Gerreidae Apogonidae Platycephalidae Sparidae Gobiesocidae Gobiidae Tripterygiidae Callionymidae Syngnathidae Cumultive Increment widths (um) Average size (mm TL) From Reef to Sapphire coast… 100 150 200 250 50 • Bigger larvae = wider dispersal? IS BIGGER BETTER? 10 15 20 25 0 5 0 1 • Finding a niche! • Greetings on arrival • Water temperature • Ocean currents • Spawning on the reef 11 Increment # 21 Pelagic growth 31 Blue = non-vagrants Red = vagrants 41 Merimbula Sydney Lord Howe Solitaries One Tree Expatriation 06/05/2015 6
06/05/2015 Larval swimming ability Active swimming [Predict: better performance in vagrants] • Larval swimming ability Delivered by ocean currents… do they really ride the EAC?? 80 Red = Vagrant Average U crit (cm s-1 ) 70 Blue = Non-vagrant 60 50 p = 0.015 40 30 20 10 0 C. flavirostris C. auriga Does EAC strength predict abundance? EAC STRENGTH 32-34S 11 May 8, 2004 Apr 30, 2004 Apr 22, 2004 10 9 8 1997 1998 1999 7 6 2000 2005 2010 2015 32-34 0 S 10 Sun et al. 2012 5 2001 2000 0 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Apr 30-Apr 15-May 30-May 16-Mar 31-Mar 7
06/05/2015 What about ocean temperature? EAC strength vs abundance, richness Sydney Sydney 50 30000 Total abundance 45 25000 40 Richness 35 20000 30 15000 25 20 10000 15 5000 10 5 0 0 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 Merimbula Merimbula 140 30 Total Abundance 120 25 Richness 100 20 80 15 60 10 40 20 5 0 0 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 EAC strength index Seasonal temperature drop vs persistence 160 28 30 9 MERIMBULA SYDNEY 26 28 8 140 26 24 7 120 24 22 6 100 22 20 5 80 20 18 4 18 60 16 3 16 40 14 2 14 20 12 12 1 0 10 10 0 12/3/09 1/22/10 3/13/10 5/2/10 6/21/10 8/10/10 9/29/10 10/14/09 12/3/09 1/22/10 3/13/10 5/2/10 6/21/10 8/10/10 9/29/10 160 30 SYDNEY 28 140 30 14 MERIMBULA 26 28 120 12 24 26 100 24 10 22 22 80 20 8 20 18 60 6 18 16 40 16 4 14 14 20 12 2 12 0 10 10 0 12/14/05 2/2/06 3/24/06 5/13/06 7/2/06 8/21/06 10/10/06 12/14/05 2/2/06 3/24/06 5/13/06 7/2/06 8/21/06 a e 1.0 1.0 Winter decline in abundance of A. bengalensis C. auriga 0.5 0.5 tropical vagrants 0.0 0.0 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 b f Winter survivors (normalised to site maximum) 1.0 1.0 A. vagiensis C. flavirostrus a ca. 18C 0.5 0.5 0.12 Seasonal abundance (prop.) 0.1 0.0 0.0 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 g c 0.08 1.0 1.0 A. whitleyi P. coelestis 0.06 0.5 0.5 A. vaigiensis 0.04 P. microlepis 0.0 0.0 0.02 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 d h 1.0 1.0 Long Reef 0 Shelly Beach A. sexfasciatus S. gasconyi Jervis Bay 1-Dec 30-Jan 1-Apr 1-Jun 1-Aug 1-Oct 30-Nov 30-Jan Lord Howe Island Solitary Islands 0.5 0.5 Merimbula 0.0 0.0 from Figueira and Booth 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 “overwintering threshold” (18C)> lower lethal temperature (~15C) Global Change Biology 2010 Temperature ( º C) of previous winter (July - Aug) 8
06/05/2015 Lab-based approaches: Example- relative predation risk of tropical vagrants as winter water temperatures approach Indirect temperature effects?? 250 a Tropical prey 200 150 B B 100 Max burst swim speed (cm/s) 50 A 0 250 b Temperate prey 200 150 A 100 A B 50 0 250 c Predator 200 A A 150 B 100 50 0 17 21 25 Temperature ( º C) Lab-based approaches: Example- relative predation risk of tropical vagrants as winter water temperatures approach The future under climate change 250 a Tropical prey a 0.3 Tropical prey 200 150 A 0.2 B 100 B Tropicals are Max burst swim speed (cm/s) A 50 relatively slower 0.1 0 to flee from Mortality (z) B B 250 b Temperate prey 0.0 predators as water 200 temperatures drop, 150 0.3 b Temperate prey A so suffer higher 100 A B predation risk as 0.2 50 0 w inter approaches… 0.1 250 c Predator A A 200 A A N/A 0.0 150 B 17 21 25 100 50 Temperature (°C) 0 17 21 25 Temperature ( º C) SST on the rise…. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annu al/aus/ 9
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