Introduction to Risk Assessment Introduction to Risk Assessment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Training/workshop on Training/workshop on “Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi- -Hazard Risk Assessment: Hazard Risk Assessment: “ Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort” ” Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort 13 - 31 March 2006, Islamabad, Pakistan Introduction to Risk Assessment Introduction to Risk Assessment Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) Material prepared from Lorena Montoya, Paul Hofste, and Cess van Western, ITC Associated Institute of the

Learning objectives Learning objectives � Basic components of risk assessment Basic components of risk assessment � � GIS based risk assessment procedure GIS based risk assessment procedure � � Spatial data requirements for risk assessment Spatial data requirements for risk assessment � � Quantify the disaster losses based on databases Quantify the disaster losses based on databases �

Components Components � Disaster statistics Disaster statistics � � Reasons for increase Reasons for increase � � Components of disaster risk management Components of disaster risk management � � Basic formula of risk Basic formula of risk � � Definitions of risk, hazards, vulnerability Definitions of risk, hazards, vulnerability � � Spatial aspect of risk, hazards and vulnerability Spatial aspect of risk, hazards and vulnerability �

Disasters, one after the other… … Disasters, one after the other Tsunami Asia Flooding India Flooding Central Europe Cyclone Vietnam Hurricane Katrina Hurricanes Central America Earthquake Pakistan / India Avian Flu Conflicts

Disaster Disaster A serious disruption of the functioning of a A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own community or society to cope using its own resources. resources.

Disaster Disaster � Disasters can be at different magnitude: Disasters can be at different magnitude: � � When does a traffic accident become a disaster When does a traffic accident become a disaster � � Disasters can be at different scales Disasters can be at different scales � � Individual Individual- -family family- -community community- -municipality municipality… …. . � world world � Disasters can be fast or slow Disasters can be fast or slow � � Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a � disaster? disaster? � Disasters can be predictable or unexpected Disasters can be predictable or unexpected � � firework explosion, caf firework explosion, café é fire, airplane crash, fire, airplane crash, � animal diseases, flooding animal diseases, flooding

Disaster types Disaster types � Extraterrestrial Extraterrestrial � � asteroid impact asteroid impact � Hazards are purely natural � Internal Geo Internal Geo- -dynamic processes dynamic processes � � Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption � � External geodynamic processes External geodynamic processes � � Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation � � Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological � � Floods, Tropical storms, drought Floods, Tropical storms, drought � � Ecological / environmental Ecological / environmental � � Pollution, crop disease, Pollution, crop disease, � � Epidemics Epidemics � � SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu � � Technological Technological � � (Industrial) accidents (Industrial) accidents � � Conflicts Conflicts Hazards are purely man-made � � War, land mines, terrorism War, land mines, terrorism �

Disaster statistics Disaster statistics

Disaster statistics Disaster statistics

Increasing vulnerability Increasing vulnerability � ongoing ongoing trends trends � � Population Population growth growth � � climate climate variability variability and and climate climate change change � � Migration of population to cities Migration of population to cities � � Higher vulnerability of industrialized societies Higher vulnerability of industrialized societies � � increased increased environmental environmental degradation degradation � � Densely populated communities Densely populated communities � � More people living on marginal lands More people living on marginal lands � � Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcity Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcity � � High risk due to natural and manmade hazards High risk due to natural and manmade hazards �

Disaster risk management � Disaster management can be defined as the Disaster management can be defined as the � effective organization, direction and utilization effective organization, direction and utilization of available counter- -disaster resources disaster resources of available counter � The modern view is that there must be pre The modern view is that there must be pre- - � disaster mitigation measures to avoid or disaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce impact of disasters. Pre- -disaster disaster reduce impact of disasters. Pre measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called Risk Management Risk Management called

Disaster management cycle � disaster prevention disaster prevention � � disaster preparedness disaster preparedness � � disaster relief disaster relief � � Rehabilitation Rehabilitation � � Reconstruction Reconstruction � Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?

Key elements of Disaster Management Key elements of Disaster Management Pre-disaster phases Post-disaster phases Risk Mitigation Risk Transfer Preparedness Emergency Rehabilitation and Identification response Reconstruction Hazard Physical/stru Insurance/ Early warning Humanitarian Rehabilitation/rec Assessment ctural reinsurance systems. assistance / onstruction of mitigation Communicati rescue damaged critical works on systems infrastructure Vulnerability Land-use Financial Monitoring Clean-up, Macroeconomic assessment planning and market and temporary and budget building instruments forecasting repairs and management codes restoration of services Risk Economic Privatization Shelter Damage Revitalization of Assessment incentives of public facilities assessment affected sectors services with Emergency (exports,tourism) safety planning regulations GIS mapping Education, Calamity Contingency Mobilization Incorporation of and scenario training and funds planning of recovery disaster building awareness (utility resources mitigation companies / components in public reconstruction services) • Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID

Risk Risk � Risk Risk is the likelihood or probability of a is the likelihood or probability of a � hazard event of a certain magnitude hazard event of a certain magnitude occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards. hazards. -ADPC ADPC - • Risk is the actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss.. -ADPC

Risk Risk � Risk Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due � to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact. -ADPC ADPC - • Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind of impact occurring

The most complicated simple formula The most complicated simple formula RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT Hazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude = Probability of event with a certain magnitude Hazard • Triggering mechanism Triggering mechanism • • Type of event Type of event • • Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed • etc etc Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of: = Degree of damage. Function of: Vulnerability • magnitude of event, and magnitude of event, and • • type of elements at risk type of elements at risk • Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g. = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g. Amount • Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc. • Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc. • Loss of function or economic activities Loss of function or economic activities • • Number of people • Number of people