INTERNATIONAL FOOD TRADE AND THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY Benot Daviron, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MAJOR PLAYERS OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOD TRADE AND THE WORLD FOOD SECURITY Benoît Daviron, Mathilde Douillet CIRAD

Introduction • Two standard hypothesis in the literature on international trade and food security (mainstream economics or critical rural sociology): – H1 : Some countries dominate international food markets (price makers) – H2 : A global food system connects producers and consumers at the world level through international prices  Agricultural and trade policies of the dominant countries drive world food security  Hope to solve part of the world food security with policy changes in the dominant countries

Plan 1/ Are some countries dominating international food markets? (H1) 2/ How connected to international markets are undernourished people? (H2) 3/ Conclusions and perspectives

Are some countries dominating international food markets? Import side

The asian shift Food Imports (% of world food import excluding intra EU trade) 50,00% 45,00% Europa Asia 40,00% 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

The decline of the “North” Food imports (% of world food imports intra-EU excluded) 50,0% 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% EU+USA+Japan % Developing Asia 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The multiplicity of Asian importing countries Food imports (% of world imports excluding intra-EU trade) 16,00% 14,00% 12,00% S/E Asia 10,00% Western Asia China 8,00% % Japan East Asia excluding China South Asia excluding India 6,00% India 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The Chinese « relève » Food Import Quantity Index, 1961-2010 400 350 China EU(15)ex.int 300 Japan United States of America 250 1993-1995=100 200 150 100 50 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Japan, China and India : Composition of food imports by product groups; 2009-2011 Japan China India Live animals other than animals of division 0,3% 0,4% 0,1% Meat and meat preparations 18,0% 4,4% 0,1% Dairy products and birds' eggs 2,5% 3,2% 1,1% Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and preparations thereof 22,4% 8,4% 0,4% Cereals and cereal preparations 13,0% 2,8% 0,8% Vegetables and fruits 12,1% 7,0% 24,1% Sugar, sugar preparations and honey 1,9% 2,5% 9,0% Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof 5,4% 1,3% 4,1% Feedstuff for animals (excluding unmilled cereals) 6,2% 4,3% 1,1% Miscellaneous edible products and preparations 2,8% 3,2% 1,0% Beverages and tobacco 7,4% 5,8% 1,9% Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits 5,6% 40,1% 0,7% Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes 2,5% 16,5% 55,7%

Are some countries dominating international food markets ? Export side

The Cairns Group victory Non tropical food Exports (% of world exports excluding intra EU trade) 40,00% Cairns Group USA 35,00% EU 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Supply dispersion : Main exporting countries 1990-92, 2009-11 1990-1992 2009-2011 Three major exporting Market Sum of Three major Market Sum of countries share their exporting countries share of their of the market the market leader share leader share USA, China, Argentina 69% 92% USA, Argentina, 36% 61% Corn Brazil Rice Thailand, USA, 33% 61% Thailand, Vietnam, 23% 62% Vietnam India Wheat USA, UE, Canada 31% 72% USA, EU, Australia 21% 49% Oilseeds USA (soybean), Brazil 55% 76% USA (soybean), 33% 76% (soybean), Argentina Brazil (soybean), (soybean) Canada (rapeseed) Vegetable Malaysia (palm), 32% 58% Indonesia (palm), 32% 68% Argentina (soybean), Malaysia (palm), oil Indonesia (palm) Argentina (soybean) EU, New Zeeland, 52% 74% EU, New Zeeland, 29% 61% Dairy products Australia USA

The US retreat Cereal : Stocks-to-Use Ratios 1 0,9 United States 0,8 European Union 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1960/1961 1965/1966 1970/1971 1975/1976 1980/1981 1985/1986 1990/1991 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 2010/2011

The end of food aid Food aid all products, USA and EU 12 10 USA 8 EU Million tons 6 4 2 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

How connected to international markets are undernourished people?

Pragmatic approach 1. Where are living undernourished people? 2. How connected to international food markets are their domestic food markets ?

1. Where are living undernourished people? % of world undernourished population (2010-2012) 40 Countries (90%) 11 pays Asie (10 %) Inde 20 pays Afrique Pakistan (25 %) 5 pays Asie du S (4%) et de l'W 3 pays Amérique Chine du Sud (18 %) Haiti Autres pays RDC (4 %) Ethiopie (4 %)

1. Where are living undernourished people? % of world undernourished population (2010-2012) Prevalence (2010- 40 countries (90%) 2012) 11 pays Asie 15% (10 %) Inde 20 pays Afrique 51% Pakistan (25 %) 5 pays Moyen (4%) Orient 12% 3 pays Amérique Chine du Sud (18 %) 45% Haiti 0% 20% 40% 60% Autres pays RDC (4 %) Ethiopie (4 %)

1. Where are living undernourished people? % of world undernourished population Rate of growth (2010-2012) Prevalence (2010- (1990-2012) 40 countries (90%) 2012) 11 pays Asie -1% 15% (10 %) Inde 20 pays Afrique 51% 3% Pakistan (25 %) 5 pays Moyen (4%) Orient 12% 3 pays Amérique -1% Chine du Sud (18 %) 45% Haiti 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% -2% 0% 2% 4% Autres pays RDC (4 %) Ethiopie (4 %)

2. How connected to international food markets are their domestic food markets? Exhaustive (almost) review of the literature dealing with food price transmission • Structural component • Political component

2. How connected to international food markets are their domestic food markets? • Structural component: – What are the products consumed in these countries? – How tradable are these products? – What is the cereal trade balance of these countries?

-10000 • Structural component 10000 12000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% 0 Inde Chine Bangladesh Indonesie Philippines Birmanie Wheat RD Korée Vietnam Food availability structure (calories, FAO) Nepal Cereal trade balance (FAO) Sri lanka Thailand RDC Rice Ethiopie Sudan (former) Tanzanie Nigeria Maize Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Burundi Sorghum +millet Somalie Zambie Angola Burkina faso Chad Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Malawi Zimbabwe Cameroon Pakistan Starchy roots Afghanistan Iraq Yemen Iran Brazil Colombia Guatemala Haiti

-10000 • Structural component 10000 12000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% 0 Inde Chine Bangladesh Indonesie Food availability structure(calories, FAO) Philippines Birmanie Wheat RD Korée Vietnam Cereal trade balance (FAO) Nepal Sri lanka Thailand Rice RDC Ethiopie Sudan (former) Tanzanie Maize Nigeria Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Sorghum +millet Burundi Somalie Zambie Angola Burkina faso Chad Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Malawi Zimbabwe Starchy roots Cameroon Pakistan Afghanistan Iraq Yemen Iran Brazil Colombia Guatemala Haiti

-10000 • Structural component 10000 12000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% 0 Inde Chine Bangladesh Indonesie Food availability structure (calories, FAO) Philippines Birmanie Wheat RD Korée Vietnam Cereal trade balance (FAO) Nepal Sri lanka Thailand Rice RDC Ethiopie Sudan (former) Tanzanie Maize Nigeria Kenya Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Sorghum +millet Burundi Somalie Zambie Angola Burkina faso Chad Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Malawi Zimbabwe Cameroon Starchy roots Pakistan Afghanistan Iraq Yemen Iran Brazil Colombia Guatemala Haiti

• Political component: What are the policies implemented by these countries governments? - In relation to short term fluctuations - Trade measures (tariffs, quotas, embargo) Prevention - Fiscal measures (taxes, subsidies) - Other price regulation measures (public stocks) Mitigation - Aid (financial, food, employment) - In relation to long term fluctuations - Agricultural Policy - Trade Policy Prevention - Monetary policy Mitigation - Social safety net

2. How connected to international food markets are their domestic food markets? Different groups • Short term : + Poor countries and countries afflicted by war: Bangladesh (wheat), S W Asia - « Isolationnist » countries: India, China - Poor and landlocked countries dependent on non- tradable products (many African countries)

2. How connected to international food markets are their domestic food markets? Different groups • Long term : + Countries opened to international trade (South Africa) + Net importing countries - Self-sufficient countries protecting their domestic market (India, +/- China) - Exporting countries protecting their domestic market (Pakistan for rice)