Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks Preliminary results Andrea Ranieri, Andrada Bujor – Advanced Logistics Group, Indra ICRAT 2014, Istanbul – 29 th May 2014
ALG is part of Indra Business Consulting, the strategy consultancy division of Indra, a global leader in business and technology consulting Top-tier European consultancy and IT firm Sales volume > € 3,000 million € (1) More than 40,000 employees (1) Presence in more than 115 countries Growth rate and EBITDA above sector average Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks Strategic and IT Systems and Defence and Transport and traffic Management Services Simulation Systems systems Consultancy • • • • Founded in 1994 Integration and Leading Spanish Public sector projects • Among the top management development of systems, company in IT and (e.g. Voting machines consulting firms in Europe outsourcing Defence systems and election ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 • • Key programmes for and Latin America Innovative and high management systems) • European and • Projects in more than 40 technology solutions Projects for leading international defence • countries Ticketing systems clients in the transport • European leader in • • Ongoing expansion at ASP development and sector (air traffic, surveillance and international level, with 14 e-business solutions terrestrial traffic and electronic intelligence • Indra Business Consulting Centers of technological public transportation) • On the cutting edge of • offices in Europe, Latin competence: Others: e-ticketing, simulation technology • Customer Relationship America, Africa, the Middle ATMs, traffic control of and excellence in Management East and Asia high speed trains) • Supply Chain maintenance systems • Turnover of € 66 m and a Management team of more than 600 2 professionals (1) 2012 Data
ALG is the Transportation and Infrastructure consulting practice • ALG is the Transportation, Infrastructure and Logistics practice within Indra Business Consulting with: • Annual revenue of over 20 million $ • More than 2,000 projects in more than 50 countries • Multidisciplinary team with 140 consultants (40% LatAm, 30% Europe, 15% Middle East & Asia, 15% Africa) Transportation, • Wide knowledge and experience in the complete life cycle of transportation and Infrastructure & infrastructure businesses Logistics Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks • Our professional team combines a multi-disciplinary focus in the key strategic areas Consultancy (business management, engineering, operations, economics, information systems) 18% 40% 5% 5% Transport Aviation Urban mobility and Ground transportation Traffic and tolls public transportation Sector expertise ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 12% 5% 5% 10% Logistics Supply chain Maritime transportation Railroads Logistic platforms 3
ALG has acquired a strong international experience Europe 30% Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks 10% Asia Offices 35% Projects 10% Middle East Latina America Barcelona Lisboa Beijing London 15% ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 Bilbao Madrid Buenos Aires México Africa Caracas Milan Casablanca Miami Dubai Paris Lima São Paulo We have delivered more than 2.000 projects carried out over the last 25 years 4
Our work model focuses on the achievement of tangible results, providing comprehensive service offering within the Indra portfolio Top management consultancy Value creation Analysis Conceptualization Implementation • • • • Market and client Generation of Team management Increasing analysis alternative • revenue Internal and external Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks • • solutions Diagnosis of negotiations Raising margins • capabilities and Value quantification • • Execution of specific Developing competitive position of alternatives tasks competitive • • Description of Facilitation of advantage sector trends decision-making • Launching new • • Identification of Implementation businesses business planning opportunities Strategic Understanding Generation of of the value Programme Consultancy Design of strategies concrete creation management results opportunities • ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 Strategic Planning of Systems and New Technologies • Diagnosis of the Systems Function • Selection of technologies and specific solutions Business • Implementation of packages commercial solutions of market consulting • Development of tailored solutions • Cost modeling • Technology consulting • Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) System Integration • Maintenance and Management of Applications and Outsourcing • Outsourcing of distributed Systems and work positions • Outsourcing of the management of infrastructures and operation 5
Use of the model The model State of the art Motivation Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks 6 ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014
Motivation Single European Sky & Performance Scheme European Commission’s ambitious initiative aiming to meet future ATM capacity and safety needs Co2 emissions ATM costs - Traffic Safety x 10 per flight -10% 50% x3 *compared to 2005 levels Human Factor pillar Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks FABs Airports as Extension of Performance integral part of SESAR EASA Scheme the ATM competences network Network ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 Manager Technology Legislative Safety Airport pillar pillar pillar pillar • Proposes a legislative approach Performance Scheme (Regulation) • European Commission establishes targets in key areas to be accomplished by ATM actors: Safety , Capacity , Cost efficiency and Environmental Flight Efficiency 7
Motivation Performance regulations in European ATM • Charges modulation to reflect • Targets for Capacity, performance Environment and Cost Efficiency • Full Cost Recovery principle • Determined Unit Rate • Based on Service provision • Risk-sharing mechanisms regulation • Incentive schemes (EC) No 691/2010 (EC) No 219/2007 SESAR JU Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks Performance scheme RP1 (EC) No 1794/2006 Charging (EC) No 1191/2010 Charging Scheme Full Cost recovery Scheme Determined cost model 2004 2009 2013 (EC) No 390/2013 (EC) No 549/2004 SES Framework (EC) No 1070/2009 SES II Performance scheme RP2 (EC) No 550/2004 Service (EC) No 391/2013 provision Charging scheme Incentives (EC) No 551/2004 Airspace ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 • Extension of the Regulation’s (EC) No 551/2004 interoperability scope to terminal ANS costs • Targets for Safety, Capacity, • Move to a system of binding Environment and Cost Efficiency • Response to the worsen performance targets with • Mandatory financial incentive to saturation of European airspace incentives reach the capacity targets and the increase of delays • Incentives on other targets • Legal basis for the common charging and performance 8 schemes
Motivation KPAs and KPIs defined by SESII Cost Safety Environment Capacity effectiveness Effectiveness of safety Determined Unit Cost (DUC) for En Target for Cost effectiveness management route ANS (Determined Unit Rate Target for RP2 RP2 (“maturity”) DUR in RP1) En-route ATFM delay Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks Target for RP2 Determined Unit Cost (DUC) for Application of severity terminal ANS classification scheme Terminal Unit Rate Monitored Terminal costs Application of Just Culture Arrival ATFM delays Costs of EUROCONTROL Runway incursions Capacity Target for Safety Horizontal flight efficiency of last ATM special technical events RP2 filed flight plan (KEP) ATFM Slot adherence Horizontal flight efficiency of actual Separation infringements trajectory (KEA) ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014 Environment Effectiveness of booking Monitored Level of occurrence reporting ATC pre-departure delay procedures for FUA Monitored Application of automatic data Rate of planning of CDRs recording for separation Monitored Additional time in taxi-out minima infringement Effective use of CDRs phase monitoring Additional time in taxi-out phase Additional time in arrival Application of automatic data sequencing and metering recording for runway Additional time in arrival terminal area (ASMA) incursion monitoring 9 airspace (ASMA) Target assigned also for RP1
Use of the model The model State of the art Motivation Assessing ATM Performance Interdependencies through Bayesian Networks 10 ICRAT 2014, Istanbul - May 2014
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