KEMENTERIAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL/ BADAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL Keynote Speech Integrating Population Dynamics into Urban Development Plans: Sustainable Cities, Human Mobility and International Migration Deputy Minister for Population and Labor Kementerian PPN/Bappenas Tuesday, November 28th 2017 1
Outline • Overview • Challenges • Policy responses 2
Overview: Urban Development 3
Urban Population Significantly Rose between 1971-2015 • Indonesia has been experiencing population structural changes in the last few decades as a result of successful community- based family planning program in 1970s • In 2015, Indonesia had the largest productive age group in the region • During the same period, urban population has increased as much as 7 (seven) times 1971 2010 2015 80-84 80-84 70-74 70-74 70-74 60-64 60-64 60-64 50-54 50-54 50-54 40-44 40-44 40-44 30-34 30-34 30-34 20-14 20-24 20-24 10-14 10-14 10-14 Thousand Thousand Thousand 0-4 0-4 0-4 20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000 20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000 20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000 Female Male Female Male Female Male 119.2 millions 237.6 millions 255.1 millions Total Population Total Population Total Population 55.1 years 69.8 years 70.8 years Life expectancy Life expectancy Life expectancy 14.6% 49.7% 53.1% Urban population Urban population Urban population Source: Census 1971 & 2010, Intercensal Survey 2015, Statistics Indonesia 4
Unequal Distribution of Urban Population Among Regions Provinces with Highest Population Density in 2016 Projected Population per Island in 2045 DKI Jakarta 15.478 West Java 1.339 Urbans with DIY highest 1.188 population Banten 1.263 density are in Java island. Central Java 1.037 East Java Source: Perhitungan Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2045, Bappenas (2017) 817 Large disparities Bali 727 of urban In 2045, we project that Urban population is population NTT development of economic 264 estimated to rise between western centers will create more from 53,1% in and eastern part Lampung 237 urban and “more 2015 to 69,1% in of Indonesia developed” rural outside 2035 Riau Islands 247 Java Island Indonesia 135 (per sq.km) 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 5 Source: Statistics Indonesia (2017) Source: UN Population Prospect 2010-2085
Urban Agglomeration as an Engine of Economic Growth All metropolitan areas have Contribution of Metropolitan Areas to GDP in 2015 contributed more than one third of National GDP in Jabodetabek 19,15% 2015 DKI Jakarta 16,20% Almost half of the urban contribution to the National Gerbangkertosusilo 6,55% GDP comes from DKI Jakarta Bandung Raya 3,08% Mebidangro 2,24% More than 90% of the richest Kedungsepur 2,18% Indonesians reside in Jabodetabek, controlling more Mamminasata 1,21% than 50% of financial wealth Sarbagita 0,67% 6 Source: Boston Consulting Group (2017)
Challenges 7
Impact of Population Dynamics on Sustainable Development • Population structural changes in Indonesia have affected the characteristics of consumers & producers. • Currently, with emerging number of working population, consumption pattern has evolved, for example more consumers goods, fuel for transportation, or even tourism demand. • In the future, Indonesia also has to prepare for the ageing population, low fertility, low mortality, and more dynamic population mobility within and outside the country. • Sustainable Development Goals is expected to lead the policy into more balance Source: Salim et al. (2015) population growth and mobility. 8
Urban Development and Its Sustainability Future Challenges Massive land conversion in urban areas • Low density areas rapidly change into high Pressures Drivers • Natural resources density areas. • Urbanization consumption • Population growth • Farming land and open green areas are • GHGs & CO 2 emission • Climate change converted into residential areas • Energy • Economic • Raw materials (water, food) Slow development of mass transportation in development • Land expansion urban areas • Intensity of Disaster • Poverty & inequality • Transformation of main transportation system is not as fast as urban population growth Outcomes • Few cities with railway system and • Lower quality and interconnected transportation system Responses environmental support Sustainable urbanization • Energy, water and food More population vs waste management system insecurity Urban poverty and income inequality • Higher poverty incidences and inequality More migration from rural areas due to climate • Increase in social conflict change and security threat • Higher risk & vulnerability • Threat to conservation 9 Sources: BPS (2016), Ministry of Transportation (2016), JICA (2014)
Access to Basic Services, 2016 Access to drinking water: 92,44% 40,54% Access to Sanitation : 90,42% Households (14% already included safe category according to the World Bank (2013)) do not own Open defecation : 11.08% (28.8 million people) house In 2016, Jakarta still has conventional type of sewerage system 10 Data Source : Susenas 2007-2016. Indonesia Statistics
Policy Responses 11
Targets of Urban Development Green and Resilient Liveable Smart and Competitive Transparent, Integrated between Cities Accountable and City with Local Identity and Regions Responsive Governance 12
Three Primary Aspects to Promote Livable Cities • To promote growth for sustainable consumption and production in urban and rural areas Economic • To promote decent jobs • To promote diversified jobs in rural areas • To strengthen connectivity between urban and rural areas • To eradicate capability deprivation Social • To ensure access to higher quality education • To promote health & well-being, through universal Development health insurance coverage • To promote the use of renewable energy • To provision of clean water Environment • To enable pollution free air • To ensure access to healthy and affordable food • To improve waste management 13
Public Private Partnerships to Promote Sustainable Urban Development Build mass transportation based road, rail, and intermoda to Provision of Basic Services, especially increase public transport share in urban areas for the poorest 40% in urban areas Developing Mass-Rapid-Transportation, Light-Rail-Transit, and Bus- Subsiding construction of basic service Way at the urban areas: Jakarta-Cibubur, Jakarta-Bekasi, Palembang, facilities in slums area Bandung, Surabaya Public – private partnerships in building Increasing capacity of commuter system between cities the public areas to improve the sanitation Developing inter-moda transportation system from the airport to system and access to drinking water reduce congestion from and to the cities as well as to reduce fuel use Increasing understanding on the Improving the capacity and quality of urban rail-road network importance of sanitation and healthy Transforming to cleaner and more energy efficient public lifestyle transportation Transformation of metropolitan and big cities to SMART CITY for more efficient energy utilization and environmentally friendly infrastructure Building smart city with six principles: Smart Governance, Smart Economy, Smart Mobility, Smart Environment, Smart People, and Smart Living Strengthening public, private, and community partnerships to build soft and hard infrastructure in developing smart cities 14
Improving Productivity Human Resorces for More Innovations Critical Link of Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development Improving technical skills and competence of working age Population Dynamics: population to adopt with new Demographic Dividend & technology Urbanization Partnerships with industries to develop curriculum for the Capacity Building & Knowledge formal education, vocational, Management INNOVATIONS and training system • Sharing Economy Establishing and/or adopting national or international • Product Productivity Growth standard of competencies in development urban priority sectors • Smart local tourism Partnerships with industries for • Financial technology mentoring program and Sustainable Development entrepreuneur aprenticeships Source: Salim et al. (2015) 15
Thank You 16
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