Instability of the Earth's angular velocity and long-term fluctuations of the Belaya River discharge Vasil’ev Denis Y. Mikhailov Gennady P. Ufa State Aviation Technical University Ufa, Russia International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Instability of the Earth's angular velocity and long-term fluctuations of the Belaya River discharge Overview : • Significance of the study • Study area and data used • Results • Conclusions • Acknowledgments International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Significance of the Study Sidorenkov N.S. The Interaction between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes. Weinheim: Wiley. 2009. 305 p. Gray L.J., Beer J., Geller M., Haigh J. D., Lockwood M., Matthes K., Cubasch U., Fleitmann D., Harrison G., Hood L., Luterbacher J., Meehl G. A., Shindell D., van Geel B., and White W. // Rev. Geophys. 2010. V. 48. RG4001. doi:10.1029/2009RG000282. Abarca del Rio R., Gambis D., Salstein D., Nelson P., Dai A // J. Geodynamics. 2003. V. 36. P. 423-443. Egger J., Weickmann K., Hoinka K-P. // Rev. Geophys. 2007. V. 45. RG4007. doi: 10.1029/2006RG000213. Höpfner J. // Geophys. J. Int. 1998. V. 135. P. 407-437. Kerr R.A. // Science. 1984. V. 224. № 4649. P. 587. Currie R.G. // J. Geophys. Res. 1984. V. 89. № D5. P. 7215-7230. International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Study area and data used Hydrological station Index Location Available period, Basin area, Mean annual years km 2 discharge, m 3 /sec Belaya River – GS Birsk 76295 55 ° 20 ʹ″ N55 ° 30 ʹ″ E 121000 837 1936-2010 Belaya River – GS Sterlitamak 76284 53 ° 40 ʹ″ N56 ° 00 ʹ″ E 21000 121 Belaya River – GS Arsky Kamen 76275 53 ° 52 ʹ″ N58 ° 16 ʹ″ E 2300 14 International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Method of Residual Mass Curves ( 0 ) y y − ( 1 ) R i s , i 1 ,.. n ( 0 ) ( 0 ) y y , i 0 ,.., n 1 = = accumulated time series = = − i i S 1 n 1 − ( 0 ) y y sample average ∑ = s i n 1 n 1 − i 0 = ( 0 ) 2 S ( y y ) ∑ = − i s sample standard deviation n 1 − i 0 = i ( 1 ) ( 1 ) Y ∑ R on the basis of the vector R (1) form the vector Y (1) = i j j 0 = ( 1 ) ( 0 ) transformation of the original vector Y (1) in the vector PY (1 is given by an operator A Y AY = points i,Y i (0) (i=0,..,n-1) define the original schedule the test series, and the points i,Y i (1) (i=0,..,n-1) - DIC Construction Y (1) by the recurrent formula ( k 1 ) ( k ) Y AY , ( k 0 , 1 ..) + = = International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Trajectories of air masses depending on the prevalence of the type of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Results Annual length (days) of West (W), East (E), and Central (C) air mass circulations (left axis) and the anomalies (milliseconds) of the E a r t h ’ s R o t a t i o n Acceleration (ERA, right axis) as functions of time (years). International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Results Average values of the Belaya River runoffs at the Birsk gauging station (GS) (left axis) and Residual Mass Curves (RMC) of 1, 2, 3 and 4 kinds (right axis) as functions of time (years). International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Results Hydrological Station Regression Model Confidence Interval α = 0.1 Student’s Criteria F-criteria St St кр F F кр Belaya River– GS Birsk 1 Q = 954.95 – 6.48 t 1.81 1.69 5.29 4.13 Belaya River– GS Birsk 2 Q = 688.61 + 11.27 t 3.10 1.70 9.63 4.29 Belaya River– GS Sterlitamak 1 Q = 140.94 – 1.20 t 2.65 1.69 4.74 4.13 Belaya River– GS Sterlitamak 2 Q = 99.70 + 1.98 t 2.63 1.70 6.89 4.20 Belaya River– GS Arsky Kamen 1 Q = 2.35 – 0.003 t 2.01 1.69 4.19 4.13 Belaya River– GS Arsky Kamen 2 Q = 2.56 + 0.01 t 1.70 1.70 4.22 4.18 Index 1 and Index 2 are marked time intervals from 1936 to 1972 and 1973-2004, respectively. International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Conclusions Annual anomalies of the Earth's angular velocity have a significant impact on the nature of atmospheric circulation. An increase in the number of days of the Earth’s Rotation Acceleration (ERA) leads to a decrease of the air mass circulation in the West and Central directions. Reducing the number of days of the ERA results in a growing circulation in the East direction. In fact, increasing the ERA gives additional momentum to the ocean-atmosphere system. The transport of heat and moisture in Europe results in a high-water period. Understanding the mechanisms of fluctuations of the Earth’s angular speed on the climate system is an important scientific problem. There are, therefore, a number of models explaining climate change. This is a complex stochastic process that requires research on different spatial and temporal scales. Fluctuations of the Earth’s rotation and its interaction with the Earth’s atmosphere can be associated with the gravity of the Moon. International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
Acknowledgements Organizing committee SCERT-2014, Tomsk, Russia Vinogradova G.M., leading researcher of the SibRRHMI, Novosibirsk, Russia Ferapontov Y.I., Bashkir Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet), Ufa, Russia International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
Recommend
More recommend
