Infrastructure System Interconnectivity Effects on Resilience Rae Zimmerman Professor of Planning and Public Administration New York University – Wagner School International Workshop on Modeling of Physical, Economic, and Social Systems for Resilience Assessment National Institute of Standards and Technology October 19-21, 2016 Washington Dulles Airport Marriott, Dulles, VA Energy Commu- Transport nication Water Cite material used from this presentation as: R. Zimmerman (2016) Infrastructure System Interconnectivity Effects on Resilience, presented at the National Institute of Standards and Technology International Workshop on Modeling of Physical, Economic, and Social Systems for Resilience Assessment, Dulles, VA; include other references cited within this presentation.
Concepts and Scope Introduction • Resilience and interconnectivity are addressed for infrastructure and its services including relationships to society and the environment. • Resilience is used in numerous contexts. A generic concept for infrastructure resilience used here is: “bounce back ,” “bounce forward” or don’t bounce at all .[1] • Interconnectivity connotes multiple-directional or one-directional dependencies or interdependencies among infrastructures. It can influence vulnerability and resilience.[2] • Many types of infrastructure resilience and interconnectivity exist and at many scales. The Backdrop • Environmental threats are increasing in some areas, but more importantly the consequences are increasing regardless of the extent of the threats. • Condition, performance and investment typically do not include interconnectivity, which can exacerbate weaknesses in single infrastructures. • Siting, material, structural, design, and resource (financial and institutional) factors contribute to the resilience of interconnectivity and resilience relationships to society. Going Forward • Interconnectivity, its contribution to infrastructure vulnerability, and its value in promoting resilience are key inputs to infrastructure resilience modeling. Sources: [1]L. Vale (2014) The politics of resilient cities: Whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191-201; summarized in R. Zimmerman (2016) Resilient Urban Infrastructure for Adapting to Environmental Disruptions, in Handbook on Urbanization and Global Environmental Change, K. C. Seto, W. D. Solecki, and C. A. Griffith, eds., London, UK: Routledge, 2016, pp. 488-512; 492. [2]S.M. Rinaldi, J.P. Peerenboom and T.K. Kelly (December 2001) Identifying, understanding and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, 11 – 25
I. The Backdrop: 1. Selected Natural and Human Hazards Affecting Infrastructure Source: NOAA (2006) NOAA Celebrates 200 Source: Hollis Stambaugh and Harold Cohen (2010) Bridge Collapse and Response years Minneapolis, Minnesota USFA-TR-166/August 2007. U.S. Fire Administration/Technical Report Series I-35W U.S. DHS, FEMA, U.S. Fire Administration, National Fire Programs Division. NOAA (2013) Service Assessment, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy, Cover page MTA U.S. Coast Guard photo, National Commission on the BP NOAA (2016) Service Assessment The Historic SC Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Floods of Oct 1-5, 2015, Photos by NWS Weather and Offshore Forecast Offices and USGS, pp. 15, 22 . Drilling (2011) p. 88 NYC Environmental Protection
Selected Trends in Natural Hazards • NOAA’s National Climate Data Center (2016) reported the continued prominence of severe storms and flooding among other weather or climate related events whose losses exceed a billion dollars.[1] • NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reported that the recent couple of decades accounted for the most severe storms in dollar losses and other factors.[2] • The National Climate Assessment trends and projections reported increases in most climate change-related extreme phenomena: temperature, sea level rise, heavy precipitation, hurricanes.[3] • Swiss Re reported generally increasing trends in catastrophic losses (according to their threshold definitions based on “insured losses (claims), economic losses, and casualties”): “353 catastrophe events across the world in 2015, up from 339 in 2014. Of those, 198 were natural catastrophes, the highest ever recorded in one year,” most of which are weather-related.[4] • NOAA reported that records are being exceeded or almost being exceeded for temperature (NOAA’s State of the Climate ), hurricane extremes, and ice loss (NOAA National Snow and Ice Data Center).[5] Sources: [1]NOAA National Climate Data Center (2016) [2]Blake, E.S., C.W. Landsea and E.J. Gibney (August 2011) The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2010 NWS NHC-6, available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf [3]Walsh, J., et al. (2014) Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 19-67. doi:10.7930/J0KW5CXT. pp. 19-67.Page 20- 21. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/introduction [4]Swiss Re (2016) Sigma Report No. 1/2016, pages 2 and 5. [5]NOAA (2016) State of the Climate; National Snow and Ice Data Center Note: These findings can vary by location.
2. Infrastructure Condition and Selected Factors Influencing Condition Condition 2013 : U.S. average is “D”, from D - (water) to C+ (bridges).[1] Age: NYC infrastructure age ranges, according to CUF[2], are: sewer mains and subway facilities (about 80-90 years old) to airport support facilities (40-50 years old); water mains and bridges are in the middle. Design and environmental issues: However, age may not be the whole story, since many bridge collapses have occurred in newer bridges.[3] Usage and capacity: • According to EIA, energy production and use steadily increased nationwide.[4] • Vehicle Miles of Travel steadily increases (U.S. DOT[5]) and transit ridership also (APTA) • CTIA indicates the exponential growth in cellular technologies.[6] • The Pew Center [7] indicates dramatic increases in information technology usage, i.e., for the internet, computers and cell phones. Investment: ASCE estimates a $3.6 trillion need to 2020.[1] Sources: [1] ASCE (2013) Cumulative Infrastructure Needs by System Based on Current Trends Extended to 2020 (Dollars in $2010 billions) http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/#p/grade-sheet/americas-infrastructure-investment-needs [2]Center for Urban Future (2015) Caution Ahead, New York, NY: CUF, p. 11; [3]R. Zimmerman, Transport the Environment and Security, 2012; [4] http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf; [5] U.S. DOT, FHWA Highway Statistics (April 2013) [6] CTIA (2014) Annual Wireless Industry Survey; [7] Pew Research Center, February 2014, “The Web at 25,” summarized from pp. 4, 11 and 13 Available at: http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/02/27/the -web-at-25-in-the-u-s.
3. Siting: Population and Infrastructure Concentrations at Coasts NYC Power Plants Source: R. Zimmerman and C. Faris, “Infrastructure Impacts and Adaptation Challenges,” Chapter 4 in Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response, New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report, edited by C. Population Density Change, Rosenzweig and W. Solecki. Prepared for use U.S. Counties, 1960-2008 by the New York City Climate Change NYC Adaptation Task Force. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1196. New York, Combined Source: S. G. Wilson and T. R. Fischetti (May 2010) NY, NY Academy of Sciences, 2010, pp. 63-85. Sewer Outfalls Coastal population trends in the U.S.: 1960-2008, p. 7. Pp. 68, 69, 73. CSO figures drawn from http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p25-1139.pdf NYCPlaNYC.
Siting Consequences: NYC Subway Stations Flooded in the August 8, 2007 Storm • September 8, 2004 storm 7 lines were disrupted • April 15, 2007, 12 were disrupted, July 18, 2007, 9 were disrupted, • August 8, 2007, 19 lines had reduced or no service • Most of the lines were back within 12 hours. • In 2007, some outer areas where poorer populations live were spared flooding, but others were flooded (Brooklyn and Queens) • 31 of 468 stations; 15 of 25 lines vulnerable Source: Metropolitan Transportation Authority (2007), August 8, 2007 Storm Report, New York, NY: MTA, p. 49. (Ovals added signifying affected stations in 2007).
4. Materials: Example - Non-Absorbent, Impervious Surfaces Selected U.S. Cities Extent of pavement coverage Extent of pavement coverage by land use Source: U.S. EPA (October 2008) Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies, Chapter 5, “Cool Pavements,” p. 1 and p. 12, http://www.epa.gov/heatisld/resources/compendium.htmLawrence Berkeley National Labs. From Litman (2011): • Roadway area is the largest contributor to impervious surfaces for housing lots (2000 sq ft) • Roadway area is greatest for single-family large lot homes and least for high-rise apartments • Other impervious surface contributors are the housing area itself and parking Source: T. Litman (2011) Why and how to reduce the amount of land paved for roads and parking facilities, Environmental Practice 13 (1), p. 40.
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