The 21st AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan INDONESIAN ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH USING AIM: AN UPDATE 13 – 15 November 2015 Retno G Dewi, Ucok Siagian, Iwan Hendrawan, Bintang B Yuwono Center for Research on Energy Policy INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
OUTLINE Introduction: Importance of Energy Sector in Indonesian GHG Emissions Brief of Indonesia Modeling Activities Using AIM - ExSS Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector Toward 2050 - End-Use Modeling: Power, Manufacture, Transport, Residential/Commercial Sector - CGE Model: Indonesian LCD Toward 2050 Science-Based Energy Climate Change Policy Recommendations - GHG Reduction Planning, Mitigation Actions, INDC
INTRODUCTION 1 IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN INDONESIAN GHG EMISSIONS
PAST TREND OF GHG EMISSION 2000 - 1,001 million ton 2012 - 1,454 million ton Waste Waste 6.0% 6.7% Energy Energy 29.8% 34.9% LULUCF* LULUCF* IPPU 47.8% 50.5% 4.1% IPPU 2.8% Agriculture *) incl. peat fire *)incl. peat fire Agriculture 9.6% 7.8% Million ton CO2e Percentage Average annual Sectors 2000 2012 2000 2012 growth Energy 298 508 30 35 4.5% IPPU 41 41 4 3 0.1% Agriculture 96 113 10 8 1.3% LULUCF * 505 695 51 48 2.7% Waste 61 97 6 7 4.0% Total 1,001 1,454 3.2% Source: Draft Indonesia 1 st BUR, 2015 *) including peat fire
Br e akdown of E ne r gy Se c tor E missions 600 Others Fugitive Energy 2012 500 2% 4% Commercial Others 508 mill ton 1% Million ton CO2-eq Residential 400 Commercial 6% Residential Electricity 300 Generation Transport 34% Transport 200 Industry 26% 100 Electricity Gen. Industry 27% - 2000 2004 2008 2012 Mton CO2 600 Combustion Emissions 500 Major sources: coal & oil used in Electricity (Allocation by End power gen., industry, transport 400 Use Sector) Petroluem 300 Products End-use sector: 45% from fuel burning 200 in industry; Natural Gas 100 Emissions from power generation is accounted by building (60%) and - industry (40%) sectors.
Brief of Indonesia Modeling Activities Using AIM 2 ExSS , End-Use Modeling, CGE Model
Indonesia Energy Research Team in the AIM activities Indonesia energy team is involved in the development of AIM in three models: • AIM - ExSS Snapshot AIM - End-Use • • AIM - CGE
AIM-ExSS Snapshot ExSS Snapshot model has been employed to develop three models: Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector Toward • 2050 (publication) Low Carbon Development of Power Sector (to evaluate the • impact of coal addition to power expansion plan by the state electric utility, submitted to National Council for Climate Change) Low Carbon Development in DKI Jakarta (submitted to DKI • Jakarta Government and is being used in the re-evaluation of Jakarta’s mitigation plan) Result of ExSS snapshot is used as the basis of End-Use • modeling
AIM - ExSS Snapshot Indonesia energy development projection (used as input for AIM-End Use) Final energy demand Primary energy supply 700 1,000 million toe million toe 617 863 900 600 Commercial 800 Biofuel 500 700 Geothermal Industry 600 Biomassa 400 500 Solar & Wind 305 Residential 300 387 400 Nuclear 300 200 Hydropower Freight 117 200 Transport 147 Gas 100 100 Passanger Oil - Transport - Coal 2005 2030 BaU2050 BaU 2005 2030 BaU 2050 BaU
AIM End-Use In End-Use model, Indonesia energy team is involved in 4 sectors: • Power • Industry • Transport and • Residential and Commercial Compared to other energy models AIM End-use model has more detailed feature of sectoral energy technology performance and costs. With such feature the model is expected to have better chance to contribute in the development of Indonesia energy plan (through dialogues with energy planners).
AIM End-Use CO2 e missio n in Po we r Se c to r CO2 e missio n in T ra nspo rt Se c to r Millio n to n CO2e Millio n to n CO2e 847 522.981 900 600 800 500 398.518 MtCO2e q 700 - BL BL - MtCO2e q - E MS 600 400 269.026 244.760 433 500 MtCO2e q CM1 - MtCO2e q - 300 367 - CM1 190.707 E MS 400 154.855 226 300 CM2 - MtCO2e q - 200 190 86.749 86.749 86.749 MtCO2e q E MS 157 200 - CM2 99 99 99 100 100 0 0 2005 2030 2050 CO2 CO2 CO2 2005 2030 2050 I ND 3 No te : CM1 – b a se d o n Na tio na l E ne rg y Po lic y Co unc il Sc e na rio a nd e ffic ie nc y me a sure s CM2 – e xte nsive use o f b io fue l a nd mo re inte nsive e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y me a sure s
AIM End-Use CO2 e missio n in Ce me nt I ndustry CO2 e missio n in I ro n/ ste e l I ndustry Millio n to n CO2e Millio n to n CO2e 250.00 60 210.38 51 50 200.00 43 128.45 40 127.19 150.00 BL - MtCO2e q 101.73 30 BL - MtCO2e q 27 30 CM1 - MtCO2e q CM1 - MtCO2e q 23 CM2 - MtCO2e q 100.00 20 66.83 66.30 CM2 - MtCO2e q 20 30.21 30.21 30.21 50.00 10 5 5 5 0 0.00 2005 2030 2050 2005 2030 2050
AIM-CGE • AIM-CGE for Indonesia case combines energy sector with land based sector (agriculture and forestry) • Most important feature of the model: to give answer to questions related to impact of mitigation actions to Indonesia economy (GDP). • Currently the Indonesian model is still under development. The latest AIM training workshop has produced some preliminary results.
CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION Significant trend of increase in energy demand over Commercial (7.06%p.a.), Transportation (6.23%) and Industrial (5.11%) sectors. 2005-2010 energy switch from OIL to COAL and GAS. *rate are based on “ 95- “ 12 average growth rate MAND ( “ 90- “ 12) F INAL E NE RGY DE GToe GToe so urc e : Pusda tin—E SDM Implicating to trend of increase in demand on energy, noticing that GoI is planning to transform their energy mix in increasing energy security and achieving climate targets.
GOVE RNME NT E NE RGY MIX PL AN (2025) In 2005-2025 period, National Energy Policy shows significant energy switch from OIL (red. to 0.36x) to COAL (inc. to 1.7x) and GAS (inc. to 1.41x). In addition, NREs introduction to the energy mix (4.2% to 17% or 4.05x in 2025 compared to 2005). PRIMARY E NE RGY MIX (2005 & 2025*pla n) 2005 2025 *shift of energy mix during the period has resulted to significant change for the baseline emissions compared to AIM, IDN base scenario data.
INDONE SI A The 29% GHG emissions reduction target are planned to be achieved I NDC with three different focus-sectors. The following figures are represented in “ Dokumen Pendukung Penyusunan INDC Indonesia (Draft 11.08.15) “ Emission Reduction Target 2020-2030 Actions Ambitious Optimistic Fair Land-use based 750 MtonCO2 in 2030 627 MtonCO2 in 2030 596 MtonCO2 in 2030 policies scenario Energy sector policies 393 MtonCO2 in 2030 258 MtonCO2 in 2030 222 MtonCO2 in 2030 scenario Waste sector policies 36 MtonCO2 in 2030 30 MtonCO2 in 2030 45 MtonCO2 in 2030 scenario *the reduction targets are then adjusted into the model, since the model base data are not re- calibrated with Indonesia current conditions and development plans.
SCE NARIO SE T T INGS 2005 Base year analysis with projection years until 2050. There are 3 different mitigation scenarios with the following socio-economic assumptions. BaU CM INDC–KEN Energy 2005-2010 switch from OIL to COAL and GAS (Power, Industry, Residential). Supply Infrastructure Infrastructure readiness for GAS and ELECTRICITY for Industry, Buildings, and Transport Sectors. *(CM2&3) Higher rate of advanced technology dissemination. New & High rate of new & renewables introduction, starting 2020. Renewables *(CM2&3) Higher rate of introduction, starting 2030. Nuclear Available in 2030 onwards. CCS Available in 2025 onwards. technology GHG Emission 2030 afterwards, 29% below baseline. Target
GDP GHG Intensity Billion T on CO2e / 1000 USD USD 6.00 80% 2,500 2.0% Ba U 70% 1.8% BaU 5.00 CM 2,000 1.6% CM %Diffe re nc e 60% 1.4% % Difference 4.00 50% 1,500 1.2% 1.0% 3.00 40% 1,000 0.8% 30% 2.00 0.6% 20% 500 0.4% 1.00 0.2% 10% - 0.0% - 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wo rkfo rc e a nd e mplo yme nt (c o unte r me a sure ) 300 12% Une mplo ye d E mplo ye d 250 10% % une mplo yme nt 200 8% Million Pe ople 150 6% 100 4% 50 2% 0 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PRIMARY E NE RGY MIX Primary energy mix in BaU has shown higher growth rate of Coal and Gas for fulfilling the high growth of energy demand in Power Generation and Industrial sectors. PRIMARY E NE RGY SUPPL Y MIX Ba U CM MToe MToe CM Scenario shows increase in Renewables in the energy mix with most of the development is contributed by Biofuel for transport and other NREs in Power Generation Sector.
F INAL E NE RGY CONSUMPT ION BaU: The highest growing energy demand sector are Residential (4.5%p.a) followed by Non- Energy Use (4.43%), Transportation (2.72%), and Industrial (1.9%) sectors. F INAL E NE RGY DE MAND, BY SE CT OR Ba U CM MToe MToe CM: With energy conservation, reduces energy demand by 0.92x relative to BaU. *The energy conservation measures includes end-use technological devices efficiency improvement.
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