Focus Group Discussion India TIMES Model (Electricity)- Key Inputs & Results South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration(SARI/EI) 1 July 2016 Central Electricity Authority, New Delhi Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) 1
Contents Overview of SARI/EI Overview of TIMES Model India TIMES Model Structure of Energy System (Electricity) considered for Model Key Results Model Assumptions
Overview SARI/EI Program: South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration (SARI/EI) 1. SARI/EI is a long standing program of USAID started in the year 2000. 2. Program has consistently strived to address 8 SAARC COUNTRIES Afghanistan energy security in South Asia by focusing 1) Cross Border EnergyTrade Nepal Pakistan 2) Energy Market Formation and Bhutan 3) Regional Clean Energy Development. 3. SARI/EI – Phase IV (2012-2017): Key Outcomes. India Three Key Development Outcomes: Bangladesh 1. Coordinate policy, legal and regulatory issues. 2. Advance transmission interconnections. 3. Establish South Asia Regional Electricity Markets. First Three Year of the Program is Completed. Maldives IRADe- a regional organization, is implementing partner Sri Lanka
TIMES MODEL Key attributes of Times Model • Bottom-Up Model Generator • Uses linear-programming to produce least-cost energy system • Optimizes over medium to long-term time horizons • Assumes perfect foresight- all investment decisions are made in each period with full knowledge of future events In a nutshell, TIMES is used for "the exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios" TIMES objective function: Minimization of total system discounted cost including the useful value of plant at the end of model horizon Each year, the total cost includes: Capital Costs Fixed and variable annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs Exogenous imports and domestic resource production costs Exogenous exports revenues, etc
India TIMES Model Assumptions and General Settings Model Base year 2011-12 Time horizon: 2012 to 2047 equal time period of 5 years The model solves simultaneously for every 5 th year- 2012, 2017, 2022, 2027, 2032, 2037, 2042 and 2047 Discount rate 4% (with 6% inflation this is equivalent to 10%) Constant price model at 2011-12 prices No Transmission Constraint assumed within the region
Time Sub-Periods/Time-slices and Energy Fraction Generation An Year is divided into sub-time periods or Time-slices to capture the fluctuations within a day Each time-slice representing one hour of a day for each month i.e. 12 am to 1 am represents first time-slice, 1 am to 2 am represent second time-slice, and so on. Thus every month will have 24 time- slices. Total number of time-slices for an year is 288 i.e. 2304 time-slices in the model horizon The model balances the demand and supply for each time-slice
India’s Monthly Average Demand for 2014 -15 April 2014 135 Hourly Average Energy 130 Time Slice 125 120 GWh 115 110 105 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour 01-Apr-14 02-Apr-14 03-Apr-14 04-Apr-14 05-Apr-14 06-Apr-14 07-Apr-14 08-Apr-14 09-Apr-14 10-Apr-14 11-Apr-14 12-Apr-14 13-Apr-14 14-Apr-14 15-Apr-14 16-Apr-14 17-Apr-14 18-Apr-14 19-Apr-14 20-Apr-14 21-Apr-14 22-Apr-14 23-Apr-14 24-Apr-14 25-Apr-14 26-Apr-14 27-Apr-14 28-Apr-14 29-Apr-14 30-Apr-14 Hourly Average
MW 100000 120000 140000 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 APR H01 India’s Monthly Average Demand for 2014 -15 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 Minimum Demand: 97,920 MW Maximum Demand: 1,28,682 MW MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23
Structure of Energy System (Electricity) Considered For India Model Coal Power Plants- Coal Sub-Critical, Super-Critical, Dom & Imp USPC, IGCC Gas Power Plants- Gas Dom & Imp Gas OC, Gas CC Nuclear Power Plants- Uranium Dom & Imp LWR, PHWR Transmission Electricity Diesel Power Plants Diesel & Distribution Demand Network Hydro Power Plants Wind Power Plants- Key Parameters for Onshore, Off-shore T echnology Modelling: Renewable Power plant efficiencies & Solar Power Plants- availability factors PV & thermal -with & Costs: Capex, Fixed O&M Without storage and Fuel Cost Small Hydro Power Plants Capacity bounds and other user defined alternatives Bio Power Plants Fuels Indigenous availability
Elements of India’s Modeling Scenario INDC targets as per GoI have been considered viz. Target of 175 GW RE power generation capacity by 2022 Minimum 40% Non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. After 2030, Non-fossil fuel capacity assumed to increase by 5% every 5 years to reach 55% by 2047 Maximum Solar Energy Potential of 748 GW Maximum On-shore Wind Potential of 302 GW @ 120 m mast height
India Model Outputs- No Trade Scenario using demand from IRADe’s Macro Model Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
Base Case without Trade for India: Installed Capacity & Electricity generation 4000 9000 8497 8000 3500 6516 7000 3000 Installed Capacity (GW) 6000 Generation (BU) 2500 2116 4597 5000 2000 4000 1509 3218 1500 3000 1059 2254 776 1000 1652 2000 1274 538 408 500 264 1000 0 0 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP Total Generation Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
Electricity Generation: India-Without Trade Year Wise (BU) 8497 9000 8000 Generation (BU) 6516 7000 6000 4597 5000 BU 4000 3218 3000 2254 1652 2000 1274 1000 0 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP Total
Share of Fossil and Non-Fossil % share in Installed Capacity 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Fossil 60% 39% 39% 37% 41% 38% 37% Non-fossil 40% 61% 61% 63% 59% 62% 63% Renewable share 19% 44% 44% 40% 40% 48% 53% % share in Electricity Generation 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Fossil 73% 60% 59% 55% 59% 56% 48% Non-fossil 27% 40% 41% 45% 41% 44% 52% Renewable share 9% 22% 23% 21% 21% 30% 39%
Average monthly generation & Annual Generation India Model Results-(Without trade) Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
T ypical One Day Generation in January 2022 (GWh) 250 Diesel I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP Total 2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408 Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage 200 Solar Thermal Solar PV with Storage Solar PV Solar PV Hydro Wind On 150 Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore GWh Hydro 100 Coal - Subcritical Coal Sub C. Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical 50 Small Hydro Power Coal SC Gas CC Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear 0 Nuclear-LWR JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN Nuclear-PHWR H01 H03 H05 H07 H09 H11 H13 H15 H17 H19 H21 H23 Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
Typical One Day Renewable Generation in January 2022 (GWh) I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T otal 80 2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408 70 60 Solar Thermal 50 With Storage Solar Thermal GWh 40 Solar PV Solar PV with 30 Storage Solar PV 20 10 Wind On SHP 0 JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN H01 H03 H05 H07 H09 H11 H13 H15 H17 H19 H21 H23 Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
T ypical One Day Generation in June 2022 (GWh) 250 I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T otal 2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408 Diesel Gas- Open Cycle 200 Solar Thermal With Storage Solar Thermal Solar PV Solar PV with Storage Hydro 150 Solar PV Wind On GWh Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore 100 Hydro Coal Sub C. Coal - Subcritical Coal- Super Critical Coal- Ultra Super Critical Coal SC 50 Small Hydro Power Gas CC Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear 0 Nuclear-LWR JUNE H01 JUNE H02 JUNE H03 JUNE H04 JUNE H05 JUNE H06 JUNE H07 JUNE H08 JUNE H09 JUNE H10 JUNE H11 JUNE H12 JUNE H13 JUNE H14 JUNE H15 JUNE H16 JUNE H17 JUNE H18 JUNE H19 JUNE H20 JUNE H21 JUNE H22 JUNE H23 JUNE H24 Nuclear-PHWR Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
Typical One Day Renewable Generation in June 2022 (GWh) 100 I.C (GW) Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass SHP T otal 2022 138 20 1 16 51 100 61 10 10 408 90 80 70 Solar Thermal With Storage 60 Solar Thermal Solar PV GWh 50 Solar PV with Storage Solar PV 40 Wind Off Shore 30 Wind On Shore Small Hydro Power 20 Wind On 10 SHP 0 JUNE H01 JUNE H02 JUNE H03 JUNE H04 JUNE H05 JUNE H06 JUNE H07 JUNE H08 JUNE H09 JUNE H10 JUNE H11 JUNE H12 JUNE H13 JUNE H14 JUNE H15 JUNE H16 JUNE H17 JUNE H18 JUNE H19 JUNE H20 JUNE H21 JUNE H22 JUNE H23 JUNE H24 Draft Results for Discussion Purposes Only
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